What does this mean?
Quote from Love Trading:
NYSESTOCKS is back?
Edge types, efficiency, etc
- Thread starter New2thegame
- Start date
You don't trade Jack, the only time you tried you lost 24% in a trading contest you didn't have the integrity to finish, you are a paper tiger and paper trader.
Thanks for input. I'm glad some people are outperforming, and from the sound of it, outperforming very well at that. It also seems people are ding a lot better with equities than index futures... I guess i'm not surprised. If now I can only get myself less interested in index futures 
May I ask what type of trading you do? Is it reversion, momentum, patterns, etc?
Thanks,
May I ask what type of trading you do? Is it reversion, momentum, patterns, etc?
Thanks,
Quote from kanonka:
OK, I didn't read all 11 pages
1). Never trade long. Intraday is the max you can afford. Reason - nobody knows what will happen overnight. For example (and I take it to the extreem), company can close business overnight, and all shares/futures/options etc will become useless. The only market that you can afford to stay in several days in a row is Forex - currencies do not disappear overnight.
2) Forget about fundamentals. In the "economy" where bubbles are normal, and nobody cares about company performance, as long as money are given by govt to their close friends for nothing, fundamentals mean nothing.
3) Moneymakers have enough money to drive market into any direction they desire; also, I strongly suspect (of course, I don't have any proof - if I had, I would be long dead
- the only way for moneymakers to make money is to steal from others;
- therefore, market moves in the direction where the MOST people will lose money, and moneymakers will win. Simple as that.
Fro example, take the CAT move yesterday (I made some money off it). It had no reason whatsoever to rise, but it run up well (against the market!). You should have read all the screaming of people who were losing their shorts
4) Whatever your strategy is, do not let your emotions to make you step away from it. I started my fully automated system back in May. At first, I had no nerves to watch how it was going negative, so I manually was exiting with losses. As soon as I stopped to even watch it, and took my hands away, it started to work as intended - profit is about 100% a year (extrapolated, I'm not through my first year yet).
Good luck!
That is precisely why I asked a general question. Saying momentum, reversion or whatever doesn't give any specifics away. That said, I respect your privacy. Thanks for the input.
Most people who post exhibit behavioral patterns that can be read. you can couple that with the fact that I have mentored people for four generations. I have lost track of the number of life time trusts that have been set up for adult physically and/or mentally challenged offspring of people who take responsibility for them.
So I classify people by their autobiographical commentary about them selves. You hold back for several reasons and that is fine.
CW has three characterisitcs that relate to the psychological context that trading represents: anxiety, fear and anger. You have then all and you expressed each in specific ways.
This is an indication of stress that comes from ignorance. Ignorance is normal for any assessor smart or less than smat. You are an assessor whose feet are very dry. You have not organized the information that has been put in your path. You are not a research oriented person.
The Bohr Cycle is an impediment for you or you would have examined one trading method using money for a period of time.
If a person drinks 1oz of water daily for each two pounds of weight, then he has to have bottles of water or a supply during RTH hours. I use a sixpack of plastic bottles daily; I target 100 oz although I do not weigh 200 pounds. You are surrounded by dehydrated traders.
My oreintation to trading is that it is pool extraction so I keep taking the offer in the observable segments offered as the day passes. the segments follow an order of events (this is criptic to you). There is one pattern. It has three price moves and four voume moves. the pattern alternates by market sentiment and each pattern is completed. Patterns overlap. Three questions are continually answered by the procress of the observable pattern:
1. Where is the pattern in its cycle?
2. What comes next?
3. How fast it is progressing?
A person so trading is using either of the two Hypotheses at any given time. He is observing the pattern and knows price leads volume at critical times. Here is the pattern symbolically where B means Black and R means Red: long sentiment is B2B 2R 2B; short sentiment is R2R 2B 2R. Cycles begin and end at volume peaks. The intermediate volume peak establishes the LTL of the container. The first trough ends the overlap and the second trough establishes the RTL second point. All of this is unintelligible to people who do not think crtically. From thsi paragraph and even throwing in the Stretch/Squeeze about any person above fifth grade can be a successful trader. But this does not happen.
The reason it does not happen is bacause what I post flies in the face of inductive reasoning of the CW. You are wedded to CW so what I suggest is all questionable. Why wouldn't it be? It cannot be any other way. There is almost nothing I could post that anxious, fearful or angry people would not take exception to.
by having the answers to the three questions always before the trader, he aquires an orientation of support, comfort, and confidence. If at any time while trading the CW type feelings come into the picture, this is simply a warning that, at that monent ih does not "know that he knows".
You are basically explaining your reasoning for not knowing that you know. You quest is taking you to various places where you do not know that you know. All systems can be examined. If they work, the trader always knows that he knows
Most people who post exhibit behavioral patterns that can be read. you can couple that with the fact that I have mentored people for four generations. I have lost track of the number of life time trusts that have been set up for adult physically and/or mentally challenged offspring of people who take responsibility for them.
The first two sentences make some sense. I havenât a clue what you are trying to say with the last sentence. So, anyway you have me pegged from the few posts Iâve written. Thatâs rather impressive.
So I classify people by their autobiographical commentary about them selves. You hold back for several reasons and that is fine.
This makes it all the more interesting that you can tell so much about me. The interesting thing here is, nobody has asked for details and I doubt many actually care. However, there is very little to hide. Iâm trying to discuss all that is necessary and hopefully interesting.
CW has three characterisitcs that relate to the psychological context that trading represents: anxiety, fear and anger. You have then all and you expressed each in specific ways.
This may or may not be so, but your tone seems to suggest this is abnormal for someone that doesnât have much trading experience. Certainly you arenât suggesting that anyone qualified to be a trader would exhibit zen-like poise from the get go?
This is an indication of stress that comes from ignorance. Ignorance is normal for any assessor smart or less than smat. You are an assessor whose feet are very dry. You have not organized the information that has been put in your path. You are not a research oriented person.
My feet are in fact relatively dry so to speak. That isnât unfair to say, so youâll get no argument there. Ignorant I may be, and thatâs why Iâm here. I am looking for answers and for reasons to support the beliefs they may change. As a self-proclaimed, science-oriented person, you should know very well that taking things just because someone says so isnât a good proposition for a thinking individual. I have illustrated that I hold no interest in defending beliefs which have no merit. However, then again, I really havenât stated any beliefs. Iâve more than made it clear that I am both open to the idea of efficient or inefficient markets. Iâm beginning to wonder if youâve read my posts at all.
The Bohr Cycle is an impediment for you or you would have examined one trading method using money for a period of time.
If a person drinks 1oz of water daily for each two pounds of weight, then he has to have bottles of water or a supply during RTH hours. I use a sixpack of plastic bottles daily; I target 100 oz although I do not weigh 200 pounds. You are surrounded by dehydrated traders.
My wife always tells me I need to drink more water. Now that you have, I suppose I should. I know it does a body good, so consider that Iâve stepped intake up a notch.
My oreintation to trading is that it is pool extraction so I keep taking the offer in the observable segments offered as the day passes. the segments follow an order of events (this is criptic to you). There is one pattern. It has three price moves and four voume moves. the pattern alternates by market sentiment and each pattern is completed. Patterns overlap. Three questions are continually answered by the procress of the observable pattern:
Itâs only cryptic to me because you aim to make it so. You write as if you intend to confuse. If you make it clearer then I doubt very much that this concept or any you throw at me/us will be difficult to fathom. This is an honest request for you to explain things more clearly. One might suggest youâre hiding something by the way you choose to approach things.
1. Where is the pattern in its cycle?
2. What comes next?
3. How fast it is progressing?
A person so trading is using either of the two Hypotheses at any given time. He is observing the pattern and knows price leads volume at critical times. Here is the pattern symbolically where B means Black and R means Red: long sentiment is B2B 2R 2B; short sentiment is R2R 2B 2R. Cycles begin and end at volume peaks. The intermediate volume peak establishes the LTL of the container. The first trough ends the overlap and the second trough establishes the RTL second point. All of this is unintelligible to people who do not think crtically. From thsi paragraph and even throwing in the Stretch/Squeeze about any person above fifth grade can be a successful trader. But this does not happen.
The reason it does not happen is bacause what I post flies in the face of inductive reasoning of the CW. You are wedded to CW so what I suggest is all questionable. Why wouldn't it be? It cannot be any other way. There is almost nothing I could post that anxious, fearful or angry people would not take exception to.
Interesting thought and it would be fair had I come in married to CW. I came to the table presenting what is taught what I think may be right about it and why, but more importantly my doubts and willingness to be persuaded from CW. You seem to have missed that. Why would I bother here if I was fixated with CW? I believe more in Talebâs non-Guassian distribution that I do in traditional risk models. I believe more in Sorosâ reflexivity concept than the EMH model. How precisely do you come to the conclusion that I am damned to following the herd as your words seem to suggest? Furthermore, you'd confidently suggest that academia as a group can only operate at an inductive level? While this is certainly possible some of the time, you can't possibly believe they can as a group all of the time. After all, Academia is a major source of scientific (often deductive) knowledge.
by having the answers to the three questions always before the trader, he aquires an orientation of support, comfort, and confidence. If at any time while trading the CW type feelings come into the picture, this is simply a warning that, at that monent ih does not "know that he knows".
This may be a fair assessment. After all, while I have doubts about CW, I clearly am not converted. My intention is clearly to systematically reduce the internal nagging of CW by proving things to myself with othersâ help. Once more, no scientifically-minded person would do it another way. I came in doubting all, not just the possibility for consistent excess gains.
You probably have noticed that the H in EMH is for "Hypothesis". I feel two hypotheses cover the market.(HS) As Keynes suggests they have to be of like kind and their parametric measures (PM) have to be of like kind also. Carnap advocates using Logic Theory to process the HS and PM. By following these precepts the sector of Information Theory that is involved is Non Probabilitistic so T. Bayes is eliminated from the picture.
You do none of this in your tinking.
Once more, Iâd love to agree or argue with you. That is if I could get the meat of what youâre aiming to convey here. The glaring statement references how I do none of whatever it is I âshould doâ according to you in my thinking. Iâve never demanded that my inclinations are thee way, but you seem to take no issue in insisting I am unchangeable or unwavering in my beliefs. Thatâs ridiculous.
You are basically explaining your reasoning for not knowing that you know. You quest is taking you to various places where you do not know that you know. All systems can be examined. If they work, the trader always knows that he knows
There might be a useful nugget of wisdom in this last paragraph, but it escapes me. I presume because youâd suggest this is due to my comparably inferior intellect? Come on Jack give a dog a bone here. Can you please not speak in tongues? Say what you mean and mean what you say and I will respectfully listen and try to learn from anything mentioned that I can decipher as wisdom. Fair?
The first two sentences make some sense. I havenât a clue what you are trying to say with the last sentence. So, anyway you have me pegged from the few posts Iâve written. Thatâs rather impressive.
So I classify people by their autobiographical commentary about them selves. You hold back for several reasons and that is fine.
This makes it all the more interesting that you can tell so much about me. The interesting thing here is, nobody has asked for details and I doubt many actually care. However, there is very little to hide. Iâm trying to discuss all that is necessary and hopefully interesting.
CW has three characterisitcs that relate to the psychological context that trading represents: anxiety, fear and anger. You have then all and you expressed each in specific ways.
This may or may not be so, but your tone seems to suggest this is abnormal for someone that doesnât have much trading experience. Certainly you arenât suggesting that anyone qualified to be a trader would exhibit zen-like poise from the get go?
This is an indication of stress that comes from ignorance. Ignorance is normal for any assessor smart or less than smat. You are an assessor whose feet are very dry. You have not organized the information that has been put in your path. You are not a research oriented person.
My feet are in fact relatively dry so to speak. That isnât unfair to say, so youâll get no argument there. Ignorant I may be, and thatâs why Iâm here. I am looking for answers and for reasons to support the beliefs they may change. As a self-proclaimed, science-oriented person, you should know very well that taking things just because someone says so isnât a good proposition for a thinking individual. I have illustrated that I hold no interest in defending beliefs which have no merit. However, then again, I really havenât stated any beliefs. Iâve more than made it clear that I am both open to the idea of efficient or inefficient markets. Iâm beginning to wonder if youâve read my posts at all.
The Bohr Cycle is an impediment for you or you would have examined one trading method using money for a period of time.
If a person drinks 1oz of water daily for each two pounds of weight, then he has to have bottles of water or a supply during RTH hours. I use a sixpack of plastic bottles daily; I target 100 oz although I do not weigh 200 pounds. You are surrounded by dehydrated traders.
My wife always tells me I need to drink more water. Now that you have, I suppose I should. I know it does a body good, so consider that Iâve stepped intake up a notch.
My oreintation to trading is that it is pool extraction so I keep taking the offer in the observable segments offered as the day passes. the segments follow an order of events (this is criptic to you). There is one pattern. It has three price moves and four voume moves. the pattern alternates by market sentiment and each pattern is completed. Patterns overlap. Three questions are continually answered by the procress of the observable pattern:
Itâs only cryptic to me because you aim to make it so. You write as if you intend to confuse. If you make it clearer then I doubt very much that this concept or any you throw at me/us will be difficult to fathom. This is an honest request for you to explain things more clearly. One might suggest youâre hiding something by the way you choose to approach things.
1. Where is the pattern in its cycle?
2. What comes next?
3. How fast it is progressing?
A person so trading is using either of the two Hypotheses at any given time. He is observing the pattern and knows price leads volume at critical times. Here is the pattern symbolically where B means Black and R means Red: long sentiment is B2B 2R 2B; short sentiment is R2R 2B 2R. Cycles begin and end at volume peaks. The intermediate volume peak establishes the LTL of the container. The first trough ends the overlap and the second trough establishes the RTL second point. All of this is unintelligible to people who do not think crtically. From thsi paragraph and even throwing in the Stretch/Squeeze about any person above fifth grade can be a successful trader. But this does not happen.
The reason it does not happen is bacause what I post flies in the face of inductive reasoning of the CW. You are wedded to CW so what I suggest is all questionable. Why wouldn't it be? It cannot be any other way. There is almost nothing I could post that anxious, fearful or angry people would not take exception to.
Interesting thought and it would be fair had I come in married to CW. I came to the table presenting what is taught what I think may be right about it and why, but more importantly my doubts and willingness to be persuaded from CW. You seem to have missed that. Why would I bother here if I was fixated with CW? I believe more in Talebâs non-Guassian distribution that I do in traditional risk models. I believe more in Sorosâ reflexivity concept than the EMH model. How precisely do you come to the conclusion that I am damned to following the herd as your words seem to suggest? Furthermore, you'd confidently suggest that academia as a group can only operate at an inductive level? While this is certainly possible some of the time, you can't possibly believe they can as a group all of the time. After all, Academia is a major source of scientific (often deductive) knowledge.
by having the answers to the three questions always before the trader, he aquires an orientation of support, comfort, and confidence. If at any time while trading the CW type feelings come into the picture, this is simply a warning that, at that monent ih does not "know that he knows".
This may be a fair assessment. After all, while I have doubts about CW, I clearly am not converted. My intention is clearly to systematically reduce the internal nagging of CW by proving things to myself with othersâ help. Once more, no scientifically-minded person would do it another way. I came in doubting all, not just the possibility for consistent excess gains.
You probably have noticed that the H in EMH is for "Hypothesis". I feel two hypotheses cover the market.(HS) As Keynes suggests they have to be of like kind and their parametric measures (PM) have to be of like kind also. Carnap advocates using Logic Theory to process the HS and PM. By following these precepts the sector of Information Theory that is involved is Non Probabilitistic so T. Bayes is eliminated from the picture.
You do none of this in your tinking.
Once more, Iâd love to agree or argue with you. That is if I could get the meat of what youâre aiming to convey here. The glaring statement references how I do none of whatever it is I âshould doâ according to you in my thinking. Iâve never demanded that my inclinations are thee way, but you seem to take no issue in insisting I am unchangeable or unwavering in my beliefs. Thatâs ridiculous.
You are basically explaining your reasoning for not knowing that you know. You quest is taking you to various places where you do not know that you know. All systems can be examined. If they work, the trader always knows that he knows
There might be a useful nugget of wisdom in this last paragraph, but it escapes me. I presume because youâd suggest this is due to my comparably inferior intellect? Come on Jack give a dog a bone here. Can you please not speak in tongues? Say what you mean and mean what you say and I will respectfully listen and try to learn from anything mentioned that I can decipher as wisdom. Fair?
I'll jump in with a few random thoughts here. Trading is very simple imo.The complications come when you are on a long learning curve deciding on the best way to take advantage of the seemingly free money available.
I'll tell you a little bit about my story/approach from day one.I was never interested in stocks-too many variables,i prefer to bet on the direction of an entire market.
The most important thing to me was to:
1) Review historical ohlc data as far back as possible- no charts required.To me ohlc are the most important prices,because they are cast in stone whereas s/r is debatable (s/r is very important and required deeper research and understanding which i knew would come later.) For example how many days does the market close up/down? Where does the weekly high/low usually come?This type of information leads to probabilities,and designing systems to take advantage of those probabilities.
2) Realise this trading game was going to be the hardest thing i'd ever attempted and that most traders don't make it.Therefore it was imperative that i ignored the things they are addicted to which is indicators,and scalping.Indicators because they are freely available and marketed,and scalping because their accounts are too small,and/or their mental ability to HOLD is minimal.They are also gripped by the criteria for entry rather than being on the right side of the market.
3) Use charts to determine typical general patterns.I want to know what sort of day it is likely to be,based for example,on what happened in the prev days.I think too many traders are drawn in to the tiny time frames without paying attention to the larger picture.As has been referred to earlier,there are a few various repeating scenarios that you become familiar with when you get to know your market really well.This is where instinct comes into it's own.Today is a good example of why i have the time to type this.It's a trend sell day, i am already short -there is Nothing to do except HOLD until close.(unless i get closed out on my trailing stop) A trend sell day will usually end on or near the low.Whatever happens i will get the greatest part of the swing today.My next task is to decide how much to close out based on the closing price with regard to S/R. I don't play poker but i imagine it's a bit like holding your basic hand while changing cards a couple of times. I trade is if i'm fighting a campaign rather than a small battle,and hope to win the war.(My campaign is long biased btw-holding short all day today is for me a scalp.)
That'll do for now,i'm in danger of annoying a lot of people by rambling on....
I'll tell you a little bit about my story/approach from day one.I was never interested in stocks-too many variables,i prefer to bet on the direction of an entire market.
The most important thing to me was to:
1) Review historical ohlc data as far back as possible- no charts required.To me ohlc are the most important prices,because they are cast in stone whereas s/r is debatable (s/r is very important and required deeper research and understanding which i knew would come later.) For example how many days does the market close up/down? Where does the weekly high/low usually come?This type of information leads to probabilities,and designing systems to take advantage of those probabilities.
2) Realise this trading game was going to be the hardest thing i'd ever attempted and that most traders don't make it.Therefore it was imperative that i ignored the things they are addicted to which is indicators,and scalping.Indicators because they are freely available and marketed,and scalping because their accounts are too small,and/or their mental ability to HOLD is minimal.They are also gripped by the criteria for entry rather than being on the right side of the market.
3) Use charts to determine typical general patterns.I want to know what sort of day it is likely to be,based for example,on what happened in the prev days.I think too many traders are drawn in to the tiny time frames without paying attention to the larger picture.As has been referred to earlier,there are a few various repeating scenarios that you become familiar with when you get to know your market really well.This is where instinct comes into it's own.Today is a good example of why i have the time to type this.It's a trend sell day, i am already short -there is Nothing to do except HOLD until close.(unless i get closed out on my trailing stop) A trend sell day will usually end on or near the low.Whatever happens i will get the greatest part of the swing today.My next task is to decide how much to close out based on the closing price with regard to S/R. I don't play poker but i imagine it's a bit like holding your basic hand while changing cards a couple of times. I trade is if i'm fighting a campaign rather than a small battle,and hope to win the war.(My campaign is long biased btw-holding short all day today is for me a scalp.)
That'll do for now,i'm in danger of annoying a lot of people by rambling on....