Edge types, efficiency, etc

I "third" what Dustin said.

Why waste time trying to decipher the gibberish of someone who returned -24% in a trading contest? Look at how these three examples panned out:
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2697232#post2697232

Jack's been playing pied piper on the internet for over a decade. Notice a pattern of confusion and frustration?
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2687047&#post2687047

Here are a few more recent Jack Hershey "success" stories:

nwbprop -- flamed out under Jack's direct tutelage. Unfortunately, that thread was deleted but there are some who remember it.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1109633&highlight=nwbprop#post1109633

Neoxx -- Jack said Neoxx was doubling his money every three days when he was actually losing money.

ScottD -- hasn't posted since March when he said "Cash Cow" (as certified by Jack) isn't profitable.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2462769&#post2462769

RoughTrader -- Jack's claims about his trading deflated each time I called him on it and he hasn't posted since May.

04-23-09 01:26 PM
"For SCT like trading, rough trader takes 1500 dollars to 94,000 dollars"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2399521&#post2399521

04-26-09 06:51 PM
"Bottom line: looks like roughtrader makes 20,000 a month on two contracts average while scaling out of entries on his ATS"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2403231#post2403231

05-22-09 07:28 PM
"Rough trader is only making a couple thousand a month on a couple of contracts. He needs to make one adjustment to make 20,000 a month. He needs to add 18 contracts to his trading cars"
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2437715#post2437715


Quote from sappjason:

I "second" what Dustin said. Don't get caught up. He's clearly someone that doesn't listen to anything you are saying and just continues to ramble on and on............................... In my opinion, his remarks are not just worthless, but have a negative impact.
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If it helps the OP, who cares who it annoys, right? ;)

So, sounds like you trade futures? Which ones(s)?

Sounds like you trade a bit longer term but i'm not sure if this jus few intraday trades or several-day swing trading?

You systems trade alone or add some subjectivity to it? Have you found patterns or things that work consistently or do you find yourself constantly adjusting?

Thanks,

Quote from knightrader:

I'll jump in with a few random thoughts here. Trading is very simple imo.The complications come when you are on a long learning curve deciding on the best way to take advantage of the seemingly free money available.
I'll tell you a little bit about my story/approach from day one.I was never interested in stocks-too many variables,i prefer to bet on the direction of an entire market.
The most important thing to me was to:

1) Review historical ohlc data as far back as possible- no charts required.To me ohlc are the most important prices,because they are cast in stone whereas s/r is debatable (s/r is very important and required deeper research and understanding which i knew would come later.) For example how many days does the market close up/down? Where does the weekly high/low usually come?This type of information leads to probabilities,and designing systems to take advantage of those probabilities.

2) Realise this trading game was going to be the hardest thing i'd ever attempted and that most traders don't make it.Therefore it was imperative that i ignored the things they are addicted to which is indicators,and scalping.Indicators because they are freely available and marketed,and scalping because their accounts are too small,and/or their mental ability to HOLD is minimal.They are also gripped by the criteria for entry rather than being on the right side of the market.

3) Use charts to determine typical general patterns.I want to know what sort of day it is likely to be,based for example,on what happened in the prev days.I think too many traders are drawn in to the tiny time frames without paying attention to the larger picture.As has been referred to earlier,there are a few various repeating scenarios that you become familiar with when you get to know your market really well.This is where instinct comes into it's own.Today is a good example of why i have the time to type this.It's a trend sell day, i am already short -there is Nothing to do except HOLD until close.(unless i get closed out on my trailing stop) A trend sell day will usually end on or near the low.Whatever happens i will get the greatest part of the swing today.My next task is to decide how much to close out based on the closing price with regard to S/R. I don't play poker but i imagine it's a bit like holding your basic hand while changing cards a couple of times. I trade is if i'm fighting a campaign rather than a small battle,and hope to win the war.(My campaign is long biased btw-holding short all day today is for me a scalp.)

That'll do for now,i'm in danger of annoying a lot of people by rambling on....
:)
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Thanks for taking the time to respond.

I apologize for conveying anything that made you feel or think I was speaking in a negative way about you.

Apparently, your CW orientation is based on your research and intellectual efforts so far. You cite a lot of facts and materials that come from the CW realm.

Your thread is very productive in many ways and it will be very helpful to you.

Whenever I post, I try to make what I am suggesting clear. Usually, as has been determined, I fail.

Best of luck to you; I really think you will be able to sift through a lot of the published materials successfully. My orientation is to how a person builds a differentiated mind as a first recourse. Having the inference to match the senses is the answer to objective perception.

In your case, it was so worthwhile to push the envelope simply because of the quality of what you are doing.

Again good luck in your endeavors; they will work out quite well for you.
 
I don't wish for you or anyone to bow out. I just want to understand you. I Thought you were subtly attacking me, but if you weren't then so be it. I feel as if this post is largely reasonable which I do appreciate.

You're right, my efforts so far, namely education has led me to some CW. This much is true. I just simply wanted you to see that I don't follow these notions religiously. I don't expect much help from anyone at a trading site unless they believe my academic walls can be penetrated. I have no love for something so stringent and cold as EMH, but I need some nudges to get me there. As much as I don't care for the idea of perfectly efficient markets I need anecdotes and my own success to throw the concept away completely. How could I consider myself a skeptic without duobt? I can see many in here are trying to loosen me up. I can appreciate that. I also see that many are holding plenty back, which I suppose I understand. They have their advantages and I don't want to share. I get that completely. I know it's academically debatable as to wether an edge can be gamed by too many people knowing it, but regardless of the outcome, the consensus is that it will mean bad things for them assuming they share. So, why would they share?

Anyway, where does that leave me? It leaves me in a position where many are telling me:

Chill out on the dry book stuff, shut up and trade. Doesn't help me get there, but it sure suggests others are doing it. Does it prove anything? No... As much as it pains me to take anything at all on faith, I'm not sure what choice I have other than to take a leap here and give it a good old-fashioned try. I wish it could be proven to me, but perhaps this is just too much to expect.

If I start to make consistent money, regardless of the method, I guess I will have all I need to know and the rest is well, useless. I hope to get there and get there without wasting much time.

I'm glad that you and others find this thread of some use. Selfishly I want it to yield results for me first and foremost, but if as an ancillary benefit anyone else gets anything from it, well then all the better.

You have made some suggestions in many words, on what to try, and I will look into it as best I am able with the information I have. I will look into anything anyone contributes to be fair to them and to myself. If any of it matches my needs and gets me a step closer than it's worth it.

If you have anything else to give, I'm not unwilling to hear it. Particularly since you have clearly stated you've found no reason to hide your methods. I Just hope that I can understand them...

Thanks,

Quote from jack hershey:

Thanks for taking the time to respond.

I apologize for conveying anything that made you feel or think I was speaking in a negative way about you.

Apparently, your CW orientation is based on your research and intellectual efforts so far. You cite a lot of facts and materials that come from the CW realm.

Your thread is very productive in many ways and it will be very helpful to you.

Whenever I post, I try to make what I am suggesting clear. Usually, as has been determined, I fail.

Best of luck to you; I really think you will be able to sift through a lot of the published materials successfully. My orientation is to how a person builds a differentiated mind as a first recourse. Having the inference to match the senses is the answer to objective perception.

In your case, it was so worthwhile to push the envelope simply because of the quality of what you are doing.

Again good luck in your endeavors; they will work out quite well for you.
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Quote from New2thegame:

If it helps the OP, who cares who it annoys, right? ;)

So, sounds like you trade futures? Which ones(s)?

Sounds like you trade a bit longer term but i'm not sure if this jus few intraday trades or several-day swing trading?

You systems trade alone or add some subjectivity to it? Have you found patterns or things that work consistently or do you find yourself constantly adjusting?

Thanks,
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I swing trade yes,but also intraday trade when i see an opportunity.I am long march futures and occasionaly short june future at the moment.My strategies are mainly mechanical and that is a comfort zone for me to base operations from.Todays counter trend trade was based on probability and holding it was intuitive,but then,we have had 6 straight days of gains,so to go short mondays close is worth a punt and i would soon see if it had been a mistake.As it turned out it was plain sailing for 10 points gain and i'm flat on the short side for now looking to add to the long position if we close the gap at 1115 (cash)
Look, when you start out you are going to lose money,it's the tuition fee and there is no way around it unless you have inside info. But if you are like me,it won't cost you a fortune and you will learn faster.Pain is the best lesson.You will improve on your 2nd attempt and it will take several attempts.It's like anything else-how bad do you want it?,why do you want to trade anyway?
You only really fail if you give up and really,it's not rocket science all the answers are shown in hindsite.

Nothing is 100% holy grail,but yes,the basics happen over and over-there is nothin new on wall street.
Lets take gap plays.Most gaps get filled BUT is it going to fill today? Well todays gap down didnt get filled,assuming i wasnt short from last night,would i have bought that gap?absolutely no way,not after 6 days of gains,even if it had filled it would probably been a bull trap.But if we had been down for maybe 2 or 3 days then the probability is much higher considering the medium term trend.
Substitute subjectivity for probability and you may be further down the road.The future is not knowable so what does that leave?
 
We must be careful, as correlation does not mean causation. Remember, many have been "fooled by randomness". Consider the "Power Players" (i.e. B. Stearns, L. Brothers, M. Lynch, several hedge funds and central banks), as many institutions over the years and some of the most successful traders (Livermore & Niederhoffer) were fooled by randomness and "blew up" after having several years of success.

For example, simply because a given pattern has been working every day doesn't mean it will continue to work tomorrow. NO ONE... NO ONE absolutely knows what tomorrow will bring. Probability (future projection based on historical occurances) is all we really have to rely on... that's the EDGE...

However, one reason (other than fundamental changes in market dynamics) why so many edges no longer work after a period of time is that we were being fooled by randomness of a given correlation...

Trading is a numbers game based upon probabilities & uncertainties. But remember, past performance is no guarantee of future outcome...
 
Lets cut to the chase here:

Intuition.............that is the only "EDGE"

Very few acquire one because it is a hard road to travel. Are you prepared to get slapped around? Maybe drop a couple wifes, lose a shitload of money in expenses etc before this whole freaking game of chance gels like JELLO.

Are you sure you are up to the task? Yes, yes, i understand you are smarter than the average bear........but please remember, even the smartest bears still take their dumps in the woods.

Carry on soldier!!!

PS: get the notion out of your head that others will not tell you how to make it in trading. It is a false bs ego trip to say "I am a whiz but can not tell my secrets because if known everyone else will do it".........thats total bullshit. Each and every individual in this game of odds learn their own way and have NOT learned their total plan from any one individual. No one ever will learn it all from just someone else. the only thing harder than learning how to trade is trying to understand a women..........FAT chance on that one. :)
 
Quote from Dustin:

If all the hours on ET spent deciphering Jack's ramblings were applied to trading there may actually be some good traders here. Don't get caught up.
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... or, even better (!): Get seriously caught up! :)
 
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