Economics of Renting vs. Owning

Quote from niceguy:

what if you incorporate your self and take a 25% home office deduction ? probably should work that into your model. I rent a 2 acre home on the the Gold coast of Long Island for about the same as a nice 1 BR in NYC.

Have ya'll factored in that rents climb with the rate of inflation, but mortages on fixed rates stay pretty flat. My father-in-law makes payments on a $400,000 house at a rate of about $200 a month. Can't imagine what the rent would be on it today.

SM
 
Quote from Arnie:

You use the term "appraisal" but I think you mean "assessed value". They really are quite different. An appraisal in an unbiased opinion of market value by a licensed/certified appraiser. An assessed value is a value according to a uniform schedule for tax rolls in "ad valorem" taxation. Appraisals are NOT public information, in fact an appraiser could lose his/her license for disclosing without permission of the client. Assessed values tend to lag the market, so it's not unusual to see assessed values below market value in a rising market and above market value in a declining market. In fact, it's rare that they match at any given time.

You are absolutely right.

My kid was in a second grade last year and his "first love's" family was moving to another location. That is why I know many details.
 
Quote from Smart Money:

Have ya'll factored in that rents climb with the rate of inflation, but mortages on fixed rates stay pretty flat.

That's because of the amortization schedule, which reflects home equity (savings) by the owner. Your father-in-law is paying only $200/month because he has already saved the vast majority of the price of the house. In order to accomplish that, he had to pay a great deal of interest at a time when dollars were much more valuble than they are today.

Martin
 
You'd be surprised how many people on ET were calling the top of the 'bubble' back in 2002.

Quote from Sparohok:

There's absolutely no question that in hindsight, home ownership has been a fantastic investment over the last 5 years throughout California. In perfect hindsight, only an idiot would have rented in 2000 or 2002.

However, it is precisely the fact that home owners have done so well in the past that makes renting a much better use of money today.

Martin
 
I think that what he means is that you can lock the same payment over 30 years whereas as a renter you have no choice but to pay prevalent market rates.

Inflation helps the homeowner since the mortgage payment remains the same whereas revenues should increase. So what was once taking up 30% of monthly cash-flow, may only take 5% after 15 years.


Quote from Sparohok:

That's because of the amortization schedule, which reflects home equity (savings) by the owner. Your father-in-law is paying only $200/month because he has already saved the vast majority of the price of the house. In order to accomplish that, he had to pay a great deal of interest at a time when dollars were much more valuble than they are today.

Martin
 
Inflation helps the homeowner since the mortgage payment remains the same whereas revenues should increase. So what was once taking up 30% of monthly cash-flow, may only take 5% after 15 years.

Inflation expectations are built into mortgage rates. If the rate of inflation is relatively constant, it helps neither homeowner nor renter.

Rising inflation helps an owner with a fixed rate mortgage. If you want to bet on rising inflation, go ahead and buy a house on fixed notes. Or short long bonds, it amounts to the same thing.

Martin
 
Ive seen similar 17% declines here in san diego.

17% of 975K is painful. Someone near me is in the hole $165,000, has a mortgage he can barely afford, has an ARM and an interest only loan.

He may be forced to sell if interest rates click up again.

A lot of people are going to be real hurt in the next few years in SoCal.



Quote from balda:

05-12-06 11:31 AM

Condo in Tarzana ,CA was appraised for $570K has been on the market from August 2005 listed for 550K sold by the end of January 2006 for $470K.

You can see it if you go to zillow.com
5477 Nestle ave, Tarzana CA 91356 unit #17. You can see that it is appraised at $570k and sold for $470K
 
I can live in a house, can't live in a bond. Hardly the same thing.

If when you bought your house 20 years ago your mortgage payment (on your 30 year FIXED) represented 30% of your net income, and it still represents the same amount now, then I am sorry for you because you did not get a pay raise in 20 years.

Of course by now, the amount left on our mortgage is probably small enough (as a % of revenues) to be completely paid off.


Quote from Sparohok:



Inflation expectations are built into mortgage rates. If the rate of inflation is relatively constant, it helps neither homeowner nor renter.

Rising inflation helps an owner with a fixed rate mortgage. If you want to bet on rising inflation, go ahead and buy a house on fixed notes. Or short long bonds, it amounts to the same thing.

Martin
 
There is no general, correct answer.

It depends on what return you can get... on the equity in the property.

If it's 5-10% then owning is the way to go...
If it's 30% (like me) then real estate is not attractive.

Also...
A property often becomes a millstone for the owner.
Instead of capitalizing a successful business and an independent lifestyle...
Many home owners sentence themselves to a life in corporate, cubicle hell.

Also...
The wife will get the house 100% of the time.
 
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