Easy edges in the markets for retail participants?

Quote from kut2k2:

No.Yes.

Money does not automatically translate into brains. Donald Trump is living proof of that. Finding trends efficiently is not public knowledge. It's anybody's game, including resource-poor retail traders.

funny you mention this guy. I though he is rich because he knows how to get bankrupt without returning borrowed money. probably connections only.

is trump really role model in US ? if so, no wonder whats happening to US :D
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Say I develop my strategies using a cheap Excel spreadsheet and a free charting program. I notice certain price patterns that occur shortly before each significant intraday price swing occurs.

There's a problem, though. There's no way for me or anyone else to know in advance whether any individual appearance of these patterns will result in a significant intraday price swing in my favor.

I discover, however, that 100 days worth of spreadsheet analyses of price moves following each appearance of the patterns demonstrates that more often than not the appearance of this pattern will result in a significant price move and by entering trades every time the patterns appear, and managing the risk:reward (stop loss and profit target orders) in a way that exploits the significance of the price moves favorably I can end up with enough profits to live off of.

I suppose you've lost count of how many times you've made these remarks. Unfortunately there's no end to it since those to whom these remarks are addressed have a different worldview. They speak a different language. To say that each moment in the market is unique and that the outcome of any given trade is unknowable elicits astonishment. What good is that? How can one make money unless one can predict future market action?

There are those who can operate in an environment of uncertainty and those who can't. The insistence of one camp that the other "prove" the validity of its approach avoids the central issue, the lack of a common language, or even a common referent. If one is traveling and meets someone on the road who doesn't speak his language, he can try to communicate via hand signals and body language and facial expressions and intonation and so forth. Or he can say the hell with it, particularly if the other person shows no interest in communicating, and move on, looking for someone who speaks the same language.

The average beginner will take what is -- or appears to be -- the cheap and easy route. Look at the popularity of forex. He has no interest in spending years studying and practicing (so instead he spends years losing money). Therefore, putting a lot of time into something that doesn't promise success -- like trading rooms and courses and software do -- just isn't on the radar. Even if he eventually takes the formulaic route, those "others" will continue to seem like an alien species.

All of which makes for interesting message board fodder, but I wonder if anyone ever really learns anything from it.
 
Quote from NoDoji:

Say I develop my strategies using a cheap Excel spreadsheet and a free charting program. I notice certain price patterns that occur shortly before each significant intraday price swing occurs.

There's a problem, though. There's no way for me or anyone else to know in advance whether any individual appearance of these patterns will result in a significant intraday price swing in my favor.

I discover, however, that 100 days worth of spreadsheet analyses of price moves following each appearance of the patterns demonstrates that more often than not the appearance of this pattern will result in a significant price move and by entering trades every time the patterns appear, and managing the risk:reward (stop loss and profit target orders) in a way that exploits the significance of the price moves favorably I can end up with enough profits to live off of.

I'm not bringing a new toy to market. I'm bringing an old toy that's been around as long as there've been price charts and people analyzing the patterns price forms when it reaches certain supply/demand levels and turns the other way.

I'm not trying to outsmart anyone, and not trying to avoid losing trades. I'm simply exploiting the concept of positive expectancy based on the fact that when there's more demand than supply price will rise, when there's more supply than demand, price will fall and at certain levels price will do this strongly enough that I can profit from the inertia inherent in those moves as price progresses from one key level to another.

I'm a small retail trader. I don't have to deploy huge sums of money, therefore I don't have to outsmart anyone or have expensive powerful tools to get what I need.

Ras, how do you make money trading? Are you a "big operator" or do you have some sort of secret method like inside information?

I realize now that you really view the market as a neutral playing field. What a curious notion! :)

Basically you've taken an entry from a book, you filter it with an EMA. You really don't know what it is.
You don't know why your position gets run over only 35% of the times and rarely gets anticipated. You don't concern yourself with why you don't get run over more or less often. You believe the pattern forms naturally from the interaction between supply and demand like for artichokes at the fruit and vegetables market. You don't worry about outsmarting others because it's a neutral market and you are all producers and consumers of artichokes out to have a good time.

While kut2k2 believes nobody else sees it and to do so it takes a special talent that nobody else possesses.
And d08 believes the set up perdures because it's not worth the trouble to not even one of the thousands of operators that could use it out. That seems unlikely.

So many layers to this game. I love it!

I'm a student of price.

- ras72
 
look, there are 1000's of profitable traders here at et, all have found amazing edges and are happy to tell you all about it at the slightest hint of interest.

even more amazingly, they all keep perfectly silent about details, even after retiring with millions.

congrats on your success and your confidentiality.

I visit Hershey here at least twice a year.

private-islands-banner.jpg
 
Quote from stock777:

look, there are 1000's of profitable traders here at et, all have found amazing edges and are happy to tell you all about it at the slightest hint of interest.

even more amazingly, they all keep perfectly silent about details, even after retiring with millions.

congrats on your success and your confidentiality.

I visit Hershey here at least twice a year.

private-islands-banner.jpg

You mean Hershey takes a part time job as a pilot so that he can fund his trading account ? :confused:
 
Quote from ras72:

I realize now that you really view the market as a neutral playing field. What a curious notion! :)

Basically you've taken an entry from a book, you filter it with an EMA. You really don't know what it is.
You don't know why your position gets run over only 35% of the times and rarely gets anticipated. You don't concern yourself with why you don't get run over more or less often. You believe the pattern forms naturally from the interaction between supply and demand like for artichokes at the fruit and vegetables market. You don't worry about outsmarting others because it's a neutral market and you are all producers and consumers of artichokes out to have a good time.

While kut2k2 believes nobody else sees it and to do so it takes a special talent that nobody else possesses.
And d08 believes the set up perdures because it's not worth the trouble to not even one of the thousands of operators that could use it out. That seems unlikely.

So many layers to this game. I love it!

I'm a student of price.

- ras72

You have a problem.

Consider examining it.

Also you are a student of price (another naive problem).

In golf there is an expression: "Drive for pleasure and putt for money." Being a student of price is like going to the driving range.

Get a putter. Have your landscape maintainer put in three greens. Make sure he keeps changing the holes up to date. The second putt on a hole is to correct your first mistake.

Reread nodoji's posts several times and see if you can provide this thread with a rational response instead of your prior bullshit.
 
Quote from ras72:

... kut2k2 believes nobody else sees it and to do so it takes a special talent that nobody else possesses.

- ras72
I didn't hear me say that.

Like dbphoenix said, we're not talking the same language. I'm sure my method isn't the only effective way to trade. But you seemed to start with the preconceived notion that those with the most money and best computers automatically have the upper hand.

Money isn't everything. The best resource you'll ever have is between your ears. Use it.
 
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