Earnings Trading Journal

Paper trade. Regarding options in particular, I'm going live early next year as running another business.

Option volume > 1000
$10<Price<$200
Implied move > abs ave last 4 quarters historical moves
Implied move > abs ave last 12 quarters historical moves
Implied volatility always dropping immediately after the news
Price chart sideways
Last 6 historical moves don't look too erratic compared to implied moves.
PAYX has had recent good news; GIS has had a gradual decline and it seems not too much is expected of them (I don't understand too much on the news side as I mainly have a math background)
 
Last edited:
B.S. ....
You've got Nike tonight. They're not pricing a very big move, about 4.5%, and historically it doesn't move a lot, but they might just disappoint fwiw. I think their margin's are gonna contract. They always beat, and it looks like it wants to break out to the north... I dunno... I think its due for a correction. Its in a lot of funds. They might just take the profit on this one before year's end. Tough call though.
 
Well, NKE's down a little but all the analysts upgraded it. Margins did contract. I think its going to $92 at least. Obviously not today. We'll see.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top