Earnings Trading Journal

vanzandt said:
Red flags!
I read it.
This pig is gonna drop.

"Operating income was $73.2 million compared to $70.7"
With a 20% rise in revenue?

"Net income was $10.2 million compared to $13.5 million"
Ok taxes and a new distribution center.

"Diluted income per common share was $1.15 compared to $1.07 in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2018. The benefit from share-based accounting was $0.13 in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2019 compared to $0.08 in the year-to-date period of fiscal 2018."
..... uh oh
More...
Vanzandt,
Did you happen to see something on COST that I missed? I thought their expansion this quarter into China + their expectations for further expansion in China would have put them in a new category. I also had some other reasons like Analyst uncertainty and mixed sales report. Implied move was only 3.2%.
 
TheBigShort said:
Vanzandt,
Did you happen to see something on COST that I missed? I thought their expansion this quarter into China + their expectations for further expansion in China would have put them in a new category. I also had some other reasons like Analyst uncertainty and mixed sales report. Implied move was only 3.2%.
More...
Damn... I did not. I have not kept up on them the last two or three Q's. Followed their story that is.
Its not over obviously, and I didn't read the transcript... you might be ok though, but... and I hate to say it, but maybe not this time. That is a pretty small move they had priced in. Almost too good to be true. You might take a hit on this one. But the good news is... if history is any guide, you might catch a spike in one direction or the other tomorrow and get out at the intrinsic value of one or the other at or near your total cost. Give it till 2PM. But if you can get out at a small loss take it.
 
Adam777 said:
Hi @TheBigShort is GIS and PAYX on your radar? These are the only things I'm looking at over the next few days. They're both charting sideways, and fairly stable over the last 4 and 12 earnings.
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I'll take a look at these and get back to you over the weekend.

I was fortunate to get out at COST when it was trading at 290. Close position for .48. Loss of almost $3! Yikes
Screen Shot 2019-12-13 at 11.39.32 AM.png
 
I finally understand how partial pooling works and how it is related to earnings. In my excitement, I want to thank @Kevin Schmit for being the best teacher I have ever had and not asking for a dime in return.

Unknowingly Kev has changed my life. What he has given me has changed what I value and will change who I grow into. I think this season, we should all give back to someone who understands less. Have a bit more patience this season.

I know there are many "on lookers" on this thread. Take the time to help someone over the next week or so. What you do may change someone's course forever.
 
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