Earnings journal

Hey guys, I have some time to catch up.

Philo Judeaus said:
What do you mean by this?
More...
If a market is competitive, it's much harder to extract alpha.
JonSnowKnows said:
Has anyone used Estimize or looked at the trend of analyst revisions heading into earnings for predictive power?
More...
Isn't this what Zack's claims as their edge? I think they said they have a 70% win rate (all marketing imo). This is hard to get data for. I have never tried it.
Magic said:
The 15 min wait to close hasn't been helping me out these past few trades. Opened net winner but then sailed past my BE. The series is monthly so I might even hold 1-2 days at max to avoid buying back on extended price and elevated vol. Or in best case comes back a bit through the afternoon.
More...
Most of the vol is gone by 9.45 which is why OM and I close our positions at that time. If it's not working out, it means you are not selling vol at an expensive price. You know what might help, wait for a juicy one and lever up! There are ~1000 trade-able earnings in the USA this quarter. All you need is a handful to make your whole year. Of that 1000, 50 will pre-report earnings, another 50 will have an earnings move at 2x the average move and another 50 will be priced at .65x the earnings move. The rest of the earnings edge is in delta bets. If you do not have a delta edge, WAIT for the trade. I promise they will come.
Philo Judeaus said:
Isn't any news already priced into the market before the articles are even released? Other than pure curiousity and awareness I don't see much value in reading the news.
More...
If news was priced in, why is there a jump on earnings day?

Philo Judeaus said:
What do you mean by this?

How do you measure the implied vol against realized?

In my brain implied means looking at the "implied volatility" under todays option statistics on thinkorswim. But Im' not sure how to look at/measure realized vol? Is realized vol historical vol? I dont think it is.

Sorry for the noob questions, I'm fairly new to this.
More...
realized = historical = stat vol.
 
TheBigShort said:
Most of the vol is gone by 9.45 which is why OM and I close our positions at that time. If it's not working out, it means you are not selling vol at an expensive price. You know what might help, wait for a juicy one and lever up! There are ~1000 trade-able earnings in the USA this quarter. All you need is a handful to make your whole year. Of that 1000, 50 will pre-report earnings, another 50 will have an earnings move at 2x the average move and another 50 will be priced at .65x the earnings move. The rest of the earnings edge is in delta bets. If you do not have a delta edge, WAIT for the trade. I promise they will come.
More...

Didn’t mean to come across as pessimistic about the delayed exits. Definitely agree they’re much better than wide spreads and higher vol. Just a comment on bad pathing recently. Eventually I’m sure I’ll hit a sequence where a few in a row all path back towards my strikes.

Great data on earnings stats, thanks for sharing that. I am still refining for the sweet spot of enough perceived edge to open a trade. Obv lower threshold = more trades but less profit margin, and vice versa. I think as I get more familiar with earnings and have more trades documented this will get easier.
 
I'm up late studying.

I've looked up all of your threads @TheBigShort and man theres a wealth of knowledge in each one. And I notice you are great at asking questions. Specific questions too not this vague crap I see thrown around all the time.

I can't tell you how many hours I've accumulated sifting through @sle @Maverick74 @riskarb @atticus @optioncoach and many more traders on this site who contribute so much knowledge I need to make sure I know the ledge (knowledge). Its easy to trip off the deep end if you arent careful enough.

But I find it amazing that I can learn more from this forum than almost any book or other website.. I'm talking about specifics. Thank you all. The journey never stops.
 
TheBigShort said:
AYI:
140/125/110 P FLY @3.50

I am bearish going into the event.
More...

Sorry if this question has been already asked several times, but does it mean that you bought a short butterfly? So you bought one PUT 140, sold 2 puts 125 and bought one Put 110. The total charge was 3.5 and the trasaction was automatic, I mean, you didn't have to buy the three legs separately, but it was donw with only one order?
Thanks in advance.
 
arturo100 said:
Sorry if this question has been already asked several times, but does it mean that you bought a short butterfly? So you bought one PUT 140, sold 2 puts 125 and bought one Put 110. The total charge was 3.5 and the trasaction was automatic, I mean, you didn't have to buy the three legs separately, but it was donw with only one order?
Thanks in advance.
More...
"Bot 1 short butterfly" Is not a term as far as I know. I bot a butterfly that is short deltas. yes. long 1 140 short 2 125 long 1 110 all puts

i dont have a ton of edge here. I think atm vol is cheap and I am a bit bearish. The butterfly is cheap enough for me to trade. i am in small
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top