Earnings journal

Magic said:
Yeah, I made about $1.2 per on THO--long LZB vol was most of today's PnL. Earnings still 1 week away but after two jumps now I think vol has adjusted a bit and there's less upside so I closed it.

Eyeing PLAY since the stats look decent but I don't know if I'll get enough certainty to pull the trigger in the next few hours. Poking around at a few news pieces and if I'm reading things right it seems like there is a bit of dispersion in the expectations which is a positive. Trend of understating guidance though so there could be an upset if they miss.

Some days if I feel a bit weary/melancholy for lack of a better term it's harder to get myself to be risk-on. Always go back and forth on how much I should let that affect my execution but it's tough to completely screen out of the decision-making process.
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PLAY is on June11. They just confirmed. Screener will update on next update cycle.

Nice job on LZB. What was your reasoning for going long this?

If the edge is there, you want to look risk right in the face. The problem with these earnings trades is it's hard to scale. Anyone of them could be a 3 sigma move. Wiping out a big portion of your gains.
 
TheBigShort said:
On another note. Check out the MSFT Jul19 130/135 strangle for $6. It looks like cheap gamma going into earnings over a month away. I believe fair value is 8.40!
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I actually ended up taking this trade. My screen suggested the current implied move is lower than the historical min (it still is). Got in at 5.9 near Friday close, out at 6.3 earlier today for a quick profit. Not comfortable sitting on it for several days and holding in hope. I think pre-earnings trades are not for me.
 
Magic said:
CASY blew out as well yesterday after being dead in the water past 5 earnings. Had that on in small size.
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Interresting. I will go back and read what happened to CASY and post what I find. Unfortunately these moves come with the earnings game. It sucks when they are grouped together (MTN, CASY, PLAY). During earning season we can spread the risk more so these big moves dont impact our PnL as much.
 
TheBigShort said:
Interresting. I will go back and read what happened to CASY and post what I find. Unfortunately these moves come with the earnings game. It sucks when they are grouped together (MTN, CASY, PLAY). During earning season we can spread the risk more so these big moves dont impact our PnL as much.
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I think CASY slipped in a div announcement that also had decent impact directly following earnings?

The more confidence we have in a data set, the easier it is to brush aside variance and be able to size more optimally. At least we’re getting useful data after each trade concludes. The trick is trying to narrow down a signal from the plethora of different stats that are plausibly relevant. And being uncertain if the names that look best on paper are actually the best trades, or if the present trade is actually degraded now that it stands out too much stats-wise. If that’s the case we should refine our search to stocks that just start to diverge from mediocrity.

Looking forward to denser earnings as well. The diversification is nice and we may even be getting compensated more when it’s harder for risk averse parties to get away from the volatility, the premium we’re collecting should rise in theory.
 
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Our friend changed his name! I guess he read this thread. I forgot to check his opinion today before entering the PLAY trade. This one cost me.

I remember early on in my earnings journey reading a stat - the number of companies that announce on a given day is negatively correlated with individual company vol. Ie if company XYZ reports when there are 5 companies reporting it will experience more vol than if it reported when there were 30 companies reporting that same day@oldmonk have you come across this stat?
 
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TheBigShort said:
I remember early on in my earnings journey reading a stat - the number of companies that announce on a given day is negatively correlated with individual company vol. Ie if company XYZ reports when there are 5 companies reporting it will experience more vol than if it reported when there were 30 companies reporting that same day@oldmonk have you come across this stat?
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Interesting, I'll look into it.
 
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