Earnings journal

oldmonk said:
I might be wrong, but this chart tells me it's barely moved in the last several quarters:
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I think your data is a bit off. Manually take a look @ the last 4 quarters. I see some big moves 2 earnings ago which does not show up on your chart. The gap was 2% and the move was almost 4%

Liquidity just came in on the wings get in on the synthetic fly on DHR!! Vol is way to expensive here.
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TheBigShort said:
I think your data is a bit off. Manually take a look @ the last 4 quarters. I see some big moves 2 earnings ago which does not show up on your chart. The gap was 2% and the move was almost 4%

Liquidity just came in on the wings get in on the synthetic fly on DHR!! Vol is way to expensive here.
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I did look at the price chart. The only one that looks strange is Apr 18 2018. But it turns out the big gap happened the next day (on Apr 19). Not sure what's wrong here. Maybe they reported on Apr 18 close?

Edit: Turns out they reported on Apr 18 close. My chart assumes the report time (pre/post market) was the same as the current earning's report time. I might need to fix a few things in my model lol.

Just got filled on DHR 115/125/135 @ 4.95cr.
 
I just fixed my model to use the right earnings times, and AXP is literally the worst ranked stock in my screen now. Would never have traded it. Turns out they usually report after close, and this time is an exception. SMH.
 
oldmonk said:
I just fixed my model to use the right earnings times, and AXP is literally the worst ranked stock in my screen now. Would never have traded it. Turns out they usually report after close, and this time is an exception. SMH.
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Could be worse. You could have made that mistake on TSLA....
 
TheBigShort said:
@oldmonk try and get out @ open. AXP worked out beautiful for! It looked scary tho after the I initial plunge this morning
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Yup, AXP & DHR both looking good. GPC hasn't moved at all, but not so sure about that one. Will place some pre-market orders and hope they get filled at open.
 
!! Nice work. Yea, I am out of everything 2. My account and my lawn are both starting to turn green! Just in time for Easter! Have a great long weekend everyone!!!
 
WHR is a fore sure short. The only time the stock gets hammered is when the company lowers guidance. Usually this is due to "volatility of the metals market". Implied mv is 1.4* the avg gap. I don't think we gap more than $5 tomorrow. If we do, it'll be to the upside.

Long TWTR Vol (a majority of my portfolio).
TWTR rolled out an experimental app on Mar 13 with snapChat like features. I also believe they will be releasing a few other "surprises". From last report they said they would be increasing their budget for marketing for this quarter. If TWTR does not "WoW" the crowd it's obvious the stock will plunge. There is also potential for big blow out if TWTR shows that their beta app is taking off and their increase in spending is paying off. Not to mention the implied mv is extremely cheap on my radar (huge margin of safety). I should also point out skew is only the 45th pctile, so investors are not hedged to the down side.

I am also looking at short LMT and UTX for obvious reasons (they don't gap) but will take a closer look at their fundamentals before I pull the trigger.

@oldmonk whats on your radar today?
 
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