Duxon's Archive

[expiated]

Next week, I want to see you knock it out of the park, God willing!

I just configured a four-hour chart setup to match what I plan on doing next week, and in the process, discovered the my hourly charts with the two-day/48-hour measures on them and my weekly charts with the weekly measures are, in reality, one and the same strategy, but are simply viewed from two different perspectives.

The four-hour charts also make crystal clear how the methodology works, why it works, and what it has that makes it unnecessary to to consider any other approach going forward. Even better, due to the mechanics of its implementation/application and because of the nature of price action, I need not monitor my charts continuously to trade this system after all. I can simply check every four hours and still manage to execute trades at logical, structurally sound levels that provide the contents of my portfolio with an above-average statistical probability of enjoying positive outcomes.

 

[expiated]

I just configured a four-hour chart setup to match what I plan on doing next week, and in the process, discovered the my hourly charts with the two-day/48-hour measures on them and my weekly charts with the weekly measures are, in reality, one and the same strategy, but are simply viewed from two different perspectives.

So then, the projected weekly price range (envelope) is essentially the same as the 48-hour (two-day) price range (envelope). I would have though/guessed it would have been the same as the five-day price range envelope--but apparently not.

 

[expiated]

LET'S BE FRUGAL...

Thanks to the current level of inflation, I have begun replacing items I used to buy with cheaper alternatives. But, the taste has to be acceptable or I won't consume it, plain and simple. I will start listing such items here in case, somewhere down the road, I need to remember what these products were:

What I used to purchase...

What I buy now...

 

[expiated]

My go-to snack before, with just one costing me a whole dollar...

Now I get eight snacks for just a buck and a half...

 

[expiated]

Thursday | June 23, 2022
For my information...

The next time you want information on advertising via EliteTrader.com, go here...
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/pages/advertise/

If you were to establish a service (company) for Forex traders and then sponsor ET's Forex forum, it would cost you $1,515 a month...

 

[expiated]

Friday | June 24, 2022 | 7:05 PM PST

This is what you wrote in Post #775...

• So then, stated as simply as possible, the main idea is to look for 30-minute pullbacks in the 2½-hour price flow.
• Such pullbacks are confirmed when the 30 minute baseline is rejected by statistical support or resistance in the form of the 70-minute price range at about 0.20% deviation and/or the 2½-hour price range at about 0.30% deviation.
• If the 30-minute baseline elects not to maneuver a hook somewhere near these levels, the pair is almost certainly in the midst of a fully-fledged reversal rather than simply executing a temporary pullback.
• (Additionally, another possible move that confirms a reversal in the intraday trend is if the primary area in which price action is taking place switches from one half of the 2½- and/or 5-hour price range envelope to the other half.)
• Beyond this, one can drill down to trade with even greater precision by entering positions in the direction of the slope of the 30-minute baseline on the "far" side of the 40-minute temporal support/resistance level, and exiting those positions on the "near" side of this same measure. (The 45-, [50-] and 70-minute baselines are often helpful in confirming the trajectory of the 30-minute measure.

However, in returning to my manuscript to hopefully finally finish writing my book, I discovered that I described a methodology that viewed things from a broader perspective. The main protocol there called for taking advantage of pullbacks in the daily trend as rates bounce off the far side of the 24-hour price range envelope at 0.55%, 0.80% or 0.55% deviation; OR bounce off the 24-hour baseline; OR bounce off the 8-hour baseline—BUT ONLY WHEN the 24-, 36- and 48-hour baseline are sloping in the same direction.

In comparing the two approaches, at this point, I'm thinking that what I'd actually be inclined to do instead is trade reversals in the two-hour baseline as it rejoins the direction of the eight-hour trend.

This suggests using the 24-hour baseline as the backbone of the chart instead of the 48-hour measure.

Moreover, this approach will require a heavy dependence on the 2- and 8-hour temporal support and resistance levels when deciding where to enter positions.

 

[expiated]

In comparing the two approaches, at this point, I'm thinking that what I'd actually be inclined to do instead is trade reversals in the two-hour baseline as it rejoins the direction of the eight-hour trend.

You will be looking for both (i.e., two-hour reversals in the eight-hour trend, AND 20-minute reversals in the two-hour trend).

 

[expiated]

Saturday | June 25, 2022 | 10:40 AM PST

Maximum precision is offered by the two-minute baseline, which tracks short-term price action "like white on rice," with the four-minute baseline eliminating most of the insignificant price fluctuations observed in the faster measure, and the six- and eight-and-a-half minute baselines conveying the gist of this shorter-term price flow.

The 11-, 15- and 20-minute measures take on a somewhat intermediate role, helping to confirm the direction the 30-minute baseline by their positional relationship to/with it (opposite the 45-, [50-] and 70-minute measures) thanks to their being less sensitive to the influence of relatively fleeting price action; while also helping to confirm the direction of the three or four fastest measures for the exact same reason.

You finished Post #775 with the above, which I have cut and pasted here in that it will come into play with respect to the entry you are planning to type next...

UPDATE: Another entry is not necessary. You can go ahead and type the information here:

The 20-minute baseline has a fundamental⁠—not intermediate⁠—role, seeing as how it is the measure that dictates in which direction intraday trades can, and cannot, be made. Moreover, it is the 30-minute baseline that confirms the 20-, and not the other way around. Still, I almost consider the 30-minute measure more important, because it lacks the subtle, and therefore sometimes confusing, responses/reactions to price action that can characterize the faster measure.

So then basically, what I ideally would like to be doing is purchasing Nadex Knock-outs as the 20- and 30-minute baselines reverse direction from a trajectory opposed to the slope of the eight-hour baseline, to a course that is aligned with it—especially if the two-hour baseline is doing the same thing; and especially if the candlesticks are being simultaneously rejected by an eight-hour temporal support or resistance level.

Otherwise, to enter such positions, the two-hour baseline needs to already be aligned with the eight hour measure. (A cursory glance at your charts suggests that this is a protocol that cannot lose money.)

 

[expiated]

The 20-minute baseline has a fundamental⁠—not intermediate⁠—role, seeing as how it is the measure that dictates in which direction intraday trades can, and cannot, be made. Moreover, it is the 30-minute baseline that confirms the 20-, and not the other way around. Still, I almost consider the 30-minute measure more important, because it lacks the subtle, and therefore sometimes confusing, responses/reactions to price action that can characterize the faster measure.

So then basically, what I ideally would like to be doing is purchasing Nadex Knock-outs as the 20- and 30-minute baselines reverse direction from a trajectory opposed to the slope of the eight-hour baseline, to a course that is aligned with it—especially if the two-hour baseline is doing the same thing; and especially if the candlesticks are being simultaneously rejected by an eight-hour temporal support or resistance level.

Otherwise, to enter such positions, the two-hour baseline needs to already be aligned with the eight hour measure. (A cursory glance at your charts suggests that this is a protocol that cannot lose money.)

On Monday, I did indeed lose money attempting to apply what I typed above. So, here are the adjustments I made today that seemed to fix the problem(s)...

So then basically, rather than purchase Nadex Knock-outs as the 20- and 30-minute baselines reversed direction from a trajectory opposed to the slope of the eight-hour baseline to a course aligned with it—especially if the two-hour baseline was doing the same thing; and especially if the candlesticks were being simultaneously rejected by an eight-hour temporal support or resistance level—I instead ignored the eight- and two-hour measures, and focused on entering positions as the two-minute baseline (not 20-) reversed direction from a trajectory opposed to the slope of the 40-minute baseline (not eight-hour) to a course aligned with it, as confirmed by the "one-and-a-half minute expanse, zero-lag" proprietary indicator; especially if the 10-minute baseline was doing the same thing.

If the action was supported by the slope of the 20-minute baseline, so much the better, but this formerly fundamental measure turned out to actually be a bit lagging from this fresh perspective. On the other hand, a rejection of candlesticks by the eight-hour temporal support or resistance level continued to be the main condition that must be satisfied when trading in this manner.

The other BIG change is that one takes profit as soon as the two-minute baseline reverses direction back across the "one-and-a-half minute expanse, zero lag" proprietary indicator.

 

[expiated]

The slope of the 40-minute baseline.

What percentage of trades are successful if made when the slope of the 40-minute baseline is above or below 0.0106 or -0.0106 respectively? Check it out, and if it is near 100%, consider making this a hard and fast requirement before entering any positions.