To get issues like this fixed (or at least explained), post in the feedback forum.
Of course, since I'm on your ignore list, you won't see this.
Duxon's Archive
- Thread starter expiated
- Start date
To get issues like this fixed (or at least explained), post in the feedback forum.
Of course, since I'm on your ignore list, you won't see this.
I'm completely finished developing my system now, so I'll download their free MetaTrader5 demo platform to see if all the temporal measures match up on the Futures charts. If so, I'll compare how much money I could make trading $100 with them to how much money I can make trading $100 with OANDA to see if it's worth my while.
If you find anything interesting, like if you find that futures are harder to make money with than binary options, I hope you post something about it so the rest of us don't have to put in the effort to find out which is easier to make money with.
...I know you like your binary contracts, but just thought I'd make another attempt to bring you over to futures, just in case you ever want to try it.
Futures ain't FOREX, and they certainly ain't binary options (well, NOTHING is anything like binary options. That's just a coin-flip). He'll blow that $100 in minutes in Futures.
Remember, this is a guy who said he would compound his FOREX returns. But he never did. He's fishing in too many ponds using the same ol' bait.
If I was a betting person, I'd put money on him trading futures better than binary options.
But what do I know. I've seen the his forex charts and I think he could trade the same between say the EUR/USD and 6E futures .....oh wait, he would be trading micro6E futures and those are ridiculous to try to scalp with. Well, maybe he will find something he likes that works. I think he's tried index ETFs. I don't know how index futures relate to index ETFs, but futures might be harder because of leverage.
Expiated, not all micro futures are created equal. Some of them have too much slippage. I'm not sure you would know that unless you have access to futures data, not ETF or CFD data.
As far as I know, the micros with the least slippage are ES, NQ and YM....and M2K (micro Russell). Hope you can get futures data on all of them so you get a good feel for how they work.
Well, that is part of the problem. He has been effectively trading a micro FX pair in FOREX by trading what I think they call a "micro-lot", .01 of a full pair.
That is what I think they call micro in FOREX?
So how would him trading a single M6E (micro EUR/USD future) be different than trading a .01 lot of the EUR/USD in spot FOREX?
Right. He's trading micro lots in his forex account, but I don't think he is with binary options. I'm wondering if it's harder to hold onto a futures contract than binary options contract because (I think) the binary contract limits the amount possible to lose while remaining in the trade, whereas a futures contract uses a stoploss. I made up charts comparing the EURUSD to micro6E and 6E so I could compare the moves, although I didn't work out the equivalent dollar amount of the moves for the EUR/USD. Also, fees are not included in the spread in futures, so any profits or losses in micros would have about a $1.00 extra fee round trip, depending on the broker.
Would be hard to be profitable with a $100 account. AMP has a $55 margin for micro 6E, so that would leave $45 for drawdown. But I think it could be done. Find the right entry where it isn't likely to go against you, take the trade, then close your eyes and hold your breath. Works for me sometimes on the MicroNQ.
Yah, he has been messing with binary options. It's in one of his 28 journal threads here.
A binary option is a one-and-done deal. You pay your premium out of your cash account and it is gone. So you have effectively put 50 bux (in Expiated's binary journal examples) on a long-term roulette spin.
You will only get the money back if your binary bet works for you at expiry, which Expiated has shown from 1 hour to 12 hour time-frames or so, IIRC.
With a micro FOREX pair, you can hold it indefinitely. It's just an exchange of cash, like if you go to Europe, trade your USD for Euros at the international airport, and sit on it for however long you like.
With a FX future, you are in the same boat in a way as a binary option, but the FX future does not have a set limit on gain or loss. The only thing that matters is the price it is upon expiration. FX futures settle quarterly I believe. But at least you can get in and out of your FX future position whenever you want, unlike a binary, which you are stuck in until the position expires.
If I am wrong, then fuck it. I am forsaken anyway. ;-)
Yeah, that sounds about right. I haven't looked into binary options enough to understand the time element, but I think that some have the ability to close before the position expires.
IF he's been trading binary options by closing them early when they go against him so that the intratrade drawdown is similar to what he would need to hold for an intratrade drawdown in futures, then the switch might not be hard at all.
Nah, see, there is a HUGE difference.
Think of a binary option as a "fixed bet". So you buy an option for 50 bux. Short or long, does not matter.
Most binaries are very short DTE. Like hours, or minutes.
You spend the 50 bux on say, a long DOW to be at 25100 in 10 minutes. You entered your long binary position at 25000.
(Reaching into the past here because this sort of thing has happened...)
If a bad Trump tweet comes along at the moment you entered your position, The Dow falls 500 points in the 10 minutes you have until your expiry TIME. Instead of losing 500 points, you have lost the no-nonsense calculation of 50 bux.
If Trump's tweet sent the market up 500 points, you have won the no nonsense calculation of whatever meager profit, like an extra 50 bux on top of that original $50 bet.
It is a fixed loss and profit, no MATTER how far and away the market moves from your strike price at the exact moment the binary expires. There is an advantage to that if you are trading size I suppose, but to be honest, I'd rather be out there in the open market with a chance to gather larger gains and limiting the loss as I see fit, and not what the binary contract dictates.