Duxon's Archive

[Overnight]

More Official Synthesis, Written AFTER Reviewing the Above Text:

Generally speaking, you are going to be trading in sync with the 23-minute, 2-hour and 12-hour trends with respect to the immediate, intraday, and day-to-day time frames. (You may at some point in the future wish to evaluate whether there might be any reason to reintroduce the 40-minute price range back into the picture.)

The immediate direction in which price is headed at any given moment (and the lowest actionable trend reversal) is suggested by the positional relationship between the five- and 15-minute baselines. However, the 23-minute baseline paints a much cleaner measure – one that is a lot easier for the eye to process, and can therefore be used to confirm such trends/reversals.

The best times to respond to this category of reversals is when price is rejected at the upper or lower band of the 2-hour price range envelope, or better yet, when this short-term trend transitions from heading on a course opposed to the slope of the 2-hour baseline to a trajectory that aligns with it—especially if price is starting from the side/half of the 2-hour price range envelope that is away from the direction in which the envelope is angled.

The general, overall intraday price flow is reflected by the slope of the two-hour baseline and the two-hour price range envelope at 0.35% deviation. (Are you going to include the 90-minute baseline or not?) One of the best times to respond to intraday reversals—reversals in the two-hour baseline—is anytime it transitions from heading on a trajectory that is opposed to the slope of the 12-hour price range envelope to a course that aligns with it. Another (logical) situation where it make sense to respond to such reversals is when price is being rejected at an upper or lower band of the 12-hour, two-day, and/or four-day price range.

The overall day-to-day price flow is conveyed by slope of the 12-hour price range envelope at 0.45% deviation. However, though the 12-hour measure is where to look to get the gist of where price is headed from a daily perspective, the eight-hour baseline helps to confirm whether this measure is 100% valid, or if there is the possibility that price might be in the initial stages of changing direction, which the twelve-hour reading is going to be slow to pick up on. (Are you going to confirm this with the 20-hour baseline, or not?)

The best times to respond to reversals in the day-to-day trend is when the two-, four-, and six-hour baselines are all reversing course at the same time—ideally with the eight- and even the twelve-hour baseline(s) confirming or validating the change in direction almost simultaneously. This can occur ANYWHERE on the chart and is not limited to any side or any band of any price range. Nonetheless, the safest time to take advantage of such maneuvers is when the eight- and twelve-hour baselines are switching from a course that is in opposition with/to the slope of the two- and/or four-day trends to one that is aligned with it. It also makes a lot of sense (is logical) to take advantage of such reversals when price is bouncing off an upper or lower band of the two- or four-day price ranges.

(The one-day [24-hour] measure is essentially useless because it is too lagging to provide valid, reliable, timely signals at the intraday level; yet too sensitive/susceptible to less significant, temporary, short-term price fluctuations to accurately convey any general, overall, longer-term price flow.)

Any measure beyond four hours is essentially projecting too far into the future to be trusted, opening too wide a window of opportunity/possibilities for conditions to change, which might drastically alter the situation existing when initially interpreting factors to formulate a given forecast.

You've officially gone retro-encabulator, dude. You're done as a trader, sorry to say.

 

[ph1l]

You've officially gone retro-encabulator, dude. You're done as a trader, sorry to say.

This should be obvious to anyone. But in simpler terms, the chart for ROK (Rockwell Automation Inc) clearly shows the 14-minute, 23-minute, and 3.1-hour baselines converging at the 0.666% envelope deviation with the trajectory aligning with slope of the 19 minute maximal trend, and a confirming reversal at large with an almost simultaneous lower bandwidth of 1.8 standard deviations that is less than the absolute channel marker of the 80.5-minute actionable price range.

 

[Overnight]

View attachment 263629
This should be obvious to anyone. But in simpler terms, the chart for ROK (Rockwell Automation Inc) clearly shows the 14-minute, 23-minute, and 3.1-hour baselines converging at the 0.666% envelope deviation with the trajectory aligning with slope of the 19 minute maximal trend, and a confirming reversal at large with an almost simultaneous lower bandwidth of 1.8 standard deviations that is less than the absolute channel marker of the 80.5-minute actionable price range.

lol

 

[expiated]

The general, overall intraday price flow is reflected by the slope of the two-hour baseline and the two-hour price range envelope at 0.35% deviation. (Are you going to include the 90-minute baseline or not?)

Yes, I am going to include the 90-minute measure, but rather than using the baseline, I will be replacing the two-hour price range envelope at 0.35% deviation with the the 90-minute price range envelope at 0.20% and 0.37% deviation (while still keeping the two-hour baseline).

(Note that using baselines and the slope of price range envelopes in this way completely replaces the use of temporal support and resistance levels.)

(You may at some point in the future wish to evaluate whether there might be any reason to reintroduce the 40-minute price range back into the picture.)

No, there is no reason to reintroduce the 40-minute price range back into the picture. It is too slow to closely track the short-term trend, which is conveyed more accurately by the 23-minute baseline; and it is to "wobbly" to paint a "stable" picture of the general direction in which price is headed at the intraday level, which is handled better by the 90-minute price range envelope at 0.20% deviation.

 

[expiated]

This is the list of contributors to this forum whom you've put on ignore, but for some reason, you don't see maxinger included, whom you added yesterday.

 

[Overnight]

This is the list of contributors to this forum whom you've put on ignore, but for some reason, you don't see maxinger included, whom you added yesterday.

View attachment 263636

Yay, I made another ignore list! Oh well. At least you will no longer ever get to see a real journal, I.E. MINE. You have 28 journal threads in the journal forum. I have one.

 

[expiated]

Saturday, July 17, 2021

I like to have all my measures on one chart. However, to see the details with which I was trading last week while also getting the big picture, I had to toggle back and forth between my five-minute and one-hour chart setups. To resolve this issue, I just configured a fifteen-minute chart that combines the two. Here is my take in viewing everything from this perspective…

Ideally, one doesn't really want to ever be trading against the 2-hour trend. So, practically speaking, this means entering positions whenever the trajectory of the 23-minute baseline comes into alignment with the slope of the 2-hour baseline, and exiting positions whenever the 23-minute baseline turns away from the course of the 2-hour trend.

This will often occur: (1) near the 2-hour baseline; (2) on the "wrong side" of the 2-hour price range envelope, which is no longer actually plotted on the chart; (3) on the "wrong side" of the 90-minute price range envelope, which IS plotted on the chart; (4) near the upper or lower band of the 90-minute price range envelope at 0.20% deviation; or in extreme cases (5) near the upper or lower band of the 90-minute price range envelope at 0.37% deviation.

So then, when the two-hour baseline (and the 90-minute price range envelope at 0.20% deviation) reverses course, it is time to reverse the direction of any positions one wishes to enter. Such reversals can take place anywhere on the chart, but the probability of their leading to profitable trades is greater when they constitute a reversal from a trajectory opposed to the direction in which the 12-hour price range envelope is headed, to a course that is in line with it.

There is also a high probability of trades ending with success when the two-hour trend reverses direction to rejoin the trajectory of the two-day baseline, but a number of days can go by before this finally happens, and it often takes place in conjunction with the 12-hour baseline ALSO reversing course to rejoin the trajectory of the two-day (and four-day) trend(s).

Obviously, this means one should always be on the alert for such reversals any time that candlesticks are painting on the "wrong side" of distinctly sloping two-day and/or four-day price range envelopes.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

MILESTONE Today I made my first 0.03 lots sized trade (AUDUSD), which marks a new day for me personally. I was able to finish this round of Forex trading sessions with the greatest single day gain I've managed since I began trading a traditional foreign exchange brokerage account in 2015... so of course, I hope that this is just a harbinger of things to come, God willing.

Congrats on your Milestone!

 

[expiated]

Congrats on your Milestone!

Thanks!.

The next step is to see if I can employ the instructions written in Posts #520 and #527 adeptly enough to conquer the Nadex exchange, expanding on the progress I made this past week, having more than doubled my initial $100 deposit to $248.75.

Purchasing Nadex in-the-money contracts is extremely challenging, because the risk-to-reward structure associated with the strike prices the exchange offers stinks to high heaven (if I might be excused for invoking such a glorious place in connection with something so malodorous).

Consequently, to remain profitable, one's decision-making process has to be virtually perfect. But, if implemented flawlessly, I believe the above-mentioned protocol has the potential to deliver such results. And not only that, but to go to the next level by empowering a trader to successfully purchase out-of-the-money contracts, thereby taking advantage of extremely advantageous risk-to-reward ratios.

If that happens, I should be able to very quickly grow my Nadex account to the point where I can begin to generate the kinds of returns I managed last November during the Nadex Demo Account Trading Competition Promotion, God willing, where I took an initial $10,000 stake up to $15,641 in a single week. That was about $1000 a day, and at that time, the methodology I was using couldn't even hold a candle to what I'm using now, so it ought to be very doable indeed, IF the above protocol is truly legit.

 

[studentofthemarkets]

Thanks!.
Purchasing Nadex in-the-money contracts is extremely challenging, because the risk-to-reward structure associated with the strike prices the exchange offers stinks to high heaven (if I might be excused for invoking such a glorious place in connection with something so malodorous).

Consequently, to remain profitable, one's decision-making process has to be virtually perfect.

Futures are leveraged, so I have to be very precise with my entries too, but it's probably very different than the challenges of trading binary contracts.

AMP's minimum to get started with micros is $100. I know you like your binary contracts, but just thought I'd make another attempt to bring you over to futures, just in case you ever want to try it.