Duxon's Archive

[expiated]

Wednesday / July 7, 2021

The only currency pair that crossed the threshold into "actionable asset" territory during the past 24 hours was USDJPY. However, the pair did not span the stretch of ground I was anticipating, which prompted me to make a study of how I might milk it (and all the other pairs) of as much profit as possible (when market structure is not ideal). Here is what I found:

• Under normal conditions, price tends to fluctuated within the 40-minute price range between the 0.09% to 0.18% deviation level.
• However, an elevated level of volatility can see candlesticks venture as far out as 0.55% deviation, and under the most extreme conditions, this can stretch to as far as 1.10%.
• Reversals from such extremes are more-or-less tracked by the 13-minute baseline, but this measure is not to be trusted.
• Accordingly, short-term trades should not be executed until potential reversals are confirmed by the 23-minute baseline.

 

[expiated]

Thursday / July 8, 2021 / 2:20 AM PST

If you trade this way, you might be able to avoid the kind of -$9.18 losses like the one that hit you on Tuesday. Simply trade in the same direction that the two-hour baseline is sloping, one candlestick length at a time...

 

[expiated]

THURSDAY / JULY 8, 2021 / END OF PHASE I

Simply trade in the same direction that the two-hour baseline is sloping, one candlestick length at a time.

The above just might very well be my "final" word on what I've been doing since August 12. 2017. I've explored NPP from virtually every angle I can think of and am quite happy with how this last little tactic fits in with all other aspects of the system I worked on refining prior to today.

Well, time will tell...

 

[expiated]

Interesting...it looks like these guys are trading live, so there's no need to wonder about whether they're trying to make themselves look good by only publicizing their winners (depending on the mechanics of their presentation). They would definitely relieve any boredom if I were into trading stocks (which I'm not).

 

[expiated]

What Is Trader Tax Status

Trader tax status might be the ticket to tax savings.

Trader tax status (TTS) constitutes business expense treatment and unlocks an assortment of meaningful tax benefits for active traders who qualify. The first step is to determine eligibility. If you do qualify for TTS, you can claim some tax breaks such as business expense treatment after the fact and elect and set up other breaks—like Section 475 MTM and employee-benefit plans—on a timely basis.

Business expenses include home-office, education, startup expenses, organization expenses, margin interest, tangible property expense, Section 179 (100%) or 100% bonus depreciation, amortization on software, self-created automated trading systems, seminars, market data, stock borrow fees, and much more.

Securities traders with TTS should consider a timely election of Section 475 ordinary gain or loss treatment, due by April 15, 2021 (postponed to May 17, 2021), for individuals and March 15, 2021, for existing partnerships or S-Corps. I call it tax-loss insurance: It exempts securities trades from wash sale loss adjustments and the $3,000 capital loss limitation. Profitable 475 traders are eligible for the 20% qualified business income (QBI) deduction; whereas, QBI excludes capital gains and losses.

A TTS S-Corp unlocks deductions for health insurance premiums and high-deductible retirement plan contributions.

(From GreenTraderTax.com)

 

[expiated]

From the M1 Team...

WHY GAS IS SO EXPENSIVE
Big picture:

Oil prices surged this month after OPEC members, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could not reach a deal to increase oil production to meet increased global demand. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, regulates the production and process of oil. Last year, amid the Coronavirus pandemic, OPEC decided to decrease oil production by ten million barrels a day to meet the decrease in demand. Demand has suddenly increased as many economies startup again. Earlier this month, most members of OPEC agreed to a deal that would increase production by 400,000 barrels a day each month through 2022. But the United Arab Emirates refused to sign. As the countries were in a deadlock, the world’s oil market was put at risk.

Until yesterday, when OPEC finally reached a deal to increase oil production after weeks of negotiation. Crude oil prices fell immediately after news of the deal. However, they quickly recovered as the deal is provincial and subject to the approval of OPEC when it next meets. This means any new oil production will not hit the markets for some time.

Why it matters:

This deal is extremely important as many sectors are reliant on oil to operate. It affects how often people go out, airlines and travel, and the global supply chain industry. If oil prices get too high, there will be a trickle-down effect that will hurt the economy, which is already trying to rebound after Covid.

 

[Overnight]

From the M1 Team...

WHY GAS IS SO EXPENSIVE
Big picture:

Oil prices surged this month after OPEC members, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, could not reach a deal to increase oil production to meet increased global demand. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, regulates the production and process of oil. Last year, amid the Coronavirus pandemic, OPEC decided to decrease oil production by ten million barrels a day to meet the decrease in demand. Demand has suddenly increased as many economies startup again. Earlier this month, most members of OPEC agreed to a deal that would increase production by 400,000 barrels a day each month through 2022. But the United Arab Emirates refused to sign. As the countries were in a deadlock, the world’s oil market was put at risk.

Until yesterday, when OPEC finally reached a deal to increase oil production after weeks of negotiation. Crude oil prices fell immediately after news of the deal. However, they quickly recovered as the deal is provincial and subject to the approval of OPEC when it next meets. This means any new oil production will not hit the markets for some time.

Why it matters:

This deal is extremely important as many sectors are reliant on oil to operate. It affects how often people go out, airlines and travel, and the global supply chain industry. If oil prices get too high, there will be a trickle-down effect that will hurt the economy, which is already trying to rebound after Covid.

But but but...Green energy! Wind, Solar, Geothermal, oh my! Why do we need fossil fuels anymore?

 

[expiated]

.YEAH BABY!

Friday, July 16, 2021
ANECDOTAL OBSERVATIONS:
Synthesize these notes copied from the "Binary Options-Any Pros at All" thread over the weekend, or as soon as you feel motivated to do so. It should all be integrated in that this probably constitutes the final protocol—all the little pieces that fit together perfectly to operate as a whole (i.e., like a well-oiled machine).

I have an MT4 Profile (chart configuration) I've named "One-Hour Scenarios" which I kind of like mostly due to its clean, simple elegance. And in referring to this forecast model, here's what I think I see...

You want to be very hesitant about trading against the twelve-hour trend. And in fact, if there is any single setup that you should be looking to trade, it might be this: When the twelve-hour and eight-hour (and six-hour) baselines are headed in the same direction, enter positions as the two-hour baseline reverses its trajectory so that it transitions from countering their slopes to matching them.

Following this guideline should resolve the above dilemma and might even result in trades leading to profitable outcomes nearly 100% of the time.

--------------------------------------------------------

The other major scenarios you want to watch out for are when the eight-hour baseline reverses direction from a southbound to northbound trajectory during times when price is located in the bottom half of bullish two- and/or four-day price ranges; or conversely, when the eight-hour baseline reverses direction from a northbound to southbound trajectory during times when price is located in the top half of bearish two- and/or four-day price ranges.

--------------------------------------------------------

Look into adopting the following guideline as well as, or in place of, the above...

When the twelve-hour and eight-hour (and six-hour) baselines are headed in the same direction, enter positions as the 23-minute baseline reverses its trajectory so that it transitions from countering their slopes to matching them.

--------------------------------------------------------

So then, use the two- and four-day measures for identifying possible reversal zones ONLY! In other words, watch for when candlesticks are painting on the "wrong half" of a sloping price range envelope, OR painting at the outer edges of a price range envelope, whether sloping or not (at the outer edges of the two-day price range envelope at 0.90% through 3.00% deviation, and/or at the outer edges of the four-day price range envelope at 2.00% deviation and beyond).

Look to the 12-hour price range envelope for the general overall day-to-day flow of price (but NOT to the 8- or 6-hour baselines).

Rely on the 8-hour baseline for confirmation of major intraday trend reversals (and confirm it with/using the 20-hour baseline [when trading using the four-hour and one-hour, two-day ping pong chart configurations]), but do NOT turn to the 8- or 6-hour baselines for conveying the intraday trend in that they are not responsive, fast, or sensitive enough to serve in this capacity.

For the immediate intraday trend, ask yourself, "On which side of the 23-minute baseline are candlesticks (and the 11-minute baseline) currently painting, and in which direction is the 23-minute baseline sloping?"

However, the more stable (overall general) intraday price flow, or trend, is conveyed by the two-hour baseline, in combination with the 90-minute price range envelope (60-minutes is too unsteady and evidences an excessive amount of weaving).

--------------------------------------------------------

Also, look for price to be rejected from the "wrong" side of a sloping 12-hour price range envelope at 0.45% deviation, or for the 2-hour (to 8-hour) baseline(s) to reverse direction from either side of the 12-hour price range envelope at 0.90% to 1.50% deviation.

--------------------------------------------------------

In addition to the above described pseudo swing trading style approach to trading binary options, I think it might also be possible to design a system for trading binary options relatively successfully throughout the day, all day long, even during those periods when the market is more-or-less dead, and even more so if some version of the Martingale Strategy is employed.

It relies on the two-hour baseline, the two-hour price range envelope at 0.35% and 0.85% deviation, the five-minute baseline, the 15-minute baseline, and the nine-minute price range envelope at 0.11% deviation.

The goal is to use these particular measures to forecast reversals in the short-term trend that are likely to last long enough for the contract purchased to still be in-the-money at the time of expiry, which I am initially thinking should probably be scheduled for about 30 minutes after the time of entry.

 

[expiated]

Synthesize these notes...

Informal Synthesis Strictly from Memory (before reviewing the above text):

The immediate direction in which price is headed at any given moment (and the lowest actionable trend reversal) is suggested by the positional relationship between the five- and 15-minute baselines. However, the 23-minute baseline paints a much "cleaner" measure—one that is a lot easier for the eye to "process," and can therefore be used to confirm such trends/reversals.

The two best times to respond to this category of reversals are: (1) when price bounces off an upper or lower band of the 12-hour, two-day and/or four-day price range envelope, or… (2) it is always nice if you can jump into a position as price is exiting the "wrong" side/half of a distinctly sloping 12-hour, two-day and/or four-day price range envelope.

(The one-day measure is essentially useless because it is too lagging to provide valid, reliable, timely signals at the intraday level; yet too sensitive/susceptible to less significant, temporary, short-term price fluctuations to accurately convey any general, overall, longer-term price flow.)

The general, overall intraday price flow is reflected by the slope of the two-hour price range envelope at 0.35% deviation. The overall day-to-day price flow is conveyed by the slope of the 12-hour price range envelope at 0.45% deviation. (However, though the 12-hour measure is where to look to get the gist of where price is headed from a day trading perspective, the eight-hour baseline helps to confirm whether this measure is 100% valid, or if on the other hand, there is the possibility that price might be in the initial stages of changing direction, which the twelve-hour reading is going to be slow to pick up on.)

Any measure beyond four hours is essentially projecting too far into the future to be trusted, opening too wide a window of opportunity/possibilities for conditions to change, which might drastically alter the situation existing when initially interpreting factors to formulate a given forecast.

 

[expiated]

More Official Synthesis, Written AFTER Reviewing the Above Text:

Generally speaking, you are going to be trading in sync with the 23-minute, 2-hour and 12-hour trends with respect to the immediate, intraday, and day-to-day time frames. (You may at some point in the future wish to evaluate whether there might be any reason to reintroduce the 40-minute price range back into the picture.)

The immediate direction in which price is headed at any given moment (and the lowest actionable trend reversal) is suggested by the positional relationship between the five- and 15-minute baselines. However, the 23-minute baseline paints a much cleaner measure – one that is a lot easier for the eye to process, and can therefore be used to confirm such trends/reversals.

The best times to respond to this category of reversals is when price is rejected at the upper or lower band of the 2-hour price range envelope, or better yet, when this short-term trend transitions from heading on a course opposed to the slope of the 2-hour baseline to a trajectory that aligns with it—especially if price is starting from the side/half of the 2-hour price range envelope that is away from the direction in which the envelope is angled.

The general, overall intraday price flow is reflected by the slope of the two-hour baseline and the two-hour price range envelope at 0.35% deviation. (Are you going to include the 90-minute baseline or not?) One of the best times to respond to intraday reversals—reversals in the two-hour baseline—is anytime it transitions from heading on a trajectory that is opposed to the slope of the 12-hour price range envelope to a course that aligns with it. Another (logical) situation where it make sense to respond to such reversals is when price is being rejected at an upper or lower band of the 12-hour, two-day, and/or four-day price range.

The overall day-to-day price flow is conveyed by slope of the 12-hour price range envelope at 0.45% deviation. However, though the 12-hour measure is where to look to get the gist of where price is headed from a daily perspective, the eight-hour baseline helps to confirm whether this measure is 100% valid, or if there is the possibility that price might be in the initial stages of changing direction, which the twelve-hour reading is going to be slow to pick up on. (Are you going to confirm this with the 20-hour baseline, or not?)

The best times to respond to reversals in the day-to-day trend is when the two-, four-, and six-hour baselines are all reversing course at the same time—ideally with the eight- and even the twelve-hour baseline(s) confirming or validating the change in direction almost simultaneously. This can occur ANYWHERE on the chart and is not limited to any side or any band of any price range. Nonetheless, the safest time to take advantage of such maneuvers is when the eight- and twelve-hour baselines are switching from a course that is in opposition with/to the slope of the two- and/or four-day trends to one that is aligned with it. It also makes a lot of sense (is logical) to take advantage of such reversals when price is bouncing off an upper or lower band of the two- or four-day price ranges.

(The one-day [24-hour] measure is essentially useless because it is too lagging to provide valid, reliable, timely signals at the intraday level; yet too sensitive/susceptible to less significant, temporary, short-term price fluctuations to accurately convey any general, overall, longer-term price flow.)

Any measure beyond four hours is essentially projecting too far into the future to be trusted, opening too wide a window of opportunity/possibilities for conditions to change, which might drastically alter the situation existing when initially interpreting factors to formulate a given forecast.