Note that, like the eight-hour, two-hour, and 48-minute temporal support and resistance levels, the 40-minute price range envelope at 0.37% deviance constitutes levels where one often sees intraday price reversals.
Duxon's Archive
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Friday | July 15, 2022
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Contact these guys in July of 2023, after you have a year's worth of hard evidence proving that Numerical Price Prediction is a remarkably profitable trading system, and see if they would be interested in deploying any of their supposed millions of dollars of capital against your approach on an attractive profit share basis.
Look into these guys too...
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This same principle that comes from the weekly (two-day) price flow not only transfers down to the 16-hour and 2⅔-hour levels, but also transfers UP to the four-hour and 12-day price ranges/baselines (on an even broader basis).
But, for the purpose of making money, traders should abide by "the principle of subsidiarity" (i.e., what can be accomplished by one's own initiative and efforts should not be taken by a higher authority) and apply it to the lowest applicable measure, but supported by higher measures whenever possible.
Example:
Here, the rate climbed to the "far" side of a bearish two-hour baseline, but at one point (circled above), a short position would have been supported by price being on the "wrong" side of the bearish four-hour AND eight-hour baselines as well. (When and where to enter and exit positions would have had to have been decided using lower time frame charts.)
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Typically, the lowest applicable measure will be the two-hour baseline, with pullbacks and exits from pullbacks tracked/traced by the 40-, 20- and 10-minute measures/trend lines.
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I'm reintroducing the two-day support and resistance levels which used to be on my charts. I will also be using the 32-hour baseline as I pull back to look at things from a bird's-eye view. These "big" measures will suggest the best opportunities to apply the "smaller" measures when implementing the NPP Bias Overlap protocol.
Sunday | July 17, 2022 | 10:25 AM PST
If you look at the price range channel on the daily chart pasted below, you'll note that it does a pretty good job of defining the limits to which the rate is willing to deviate from its central tendency on any given day. And not only is price reluctant to violate these boundaries, but if and when it does, it typically does not like to remain outside their range the entire day.
I therefore duplicated these measures on my lower-time-frame setups, since it seems to me that where the upper or lower levels of the 40-minute and 2⅔-hour price ranges converge with the upper or lower band of this measure, the odds that a reversal back toward the mean is nothing more than a head fake or false positive is almost entirely eliminated.
Consequently, trades made on the basis of such conditions can be executed with relative confidence, with the potential payout from these strategically positioned entry levels (i.e., tops and bottoms) often being quite significant.
If you look at the price range channel on the daily chart pasted below, you'll note that it does a pretty good job of defining the limits to which the rate is willing to deviate from its central tendency on any given day. And not only is price reluctant to violate these boundaries, but if and when it does, it typically does not like to remain outside their range the entire day.
I therefore duplicated these measures on my lower-time-frame setups, since it seems to me that where the upper or lower levels of the 40-minute and 2⅔-hour price ranges converge with the upper or lower band of this measure, the odds that a reversal back toward the mean is nothing more than a head fake or false positive is almost entirely eliminated.
Consequently, trades made on the basis of such conditions can be executed with relative confidence, with the potential payout from these strategically positioned entry levels (i.e., tops and bottoms) often being quite significant.
Thursday | July 21, 2022 | 1:30 PM PST
With the nucleus of NPP now fully developed, I have shifted my focus to developing a routine for analyzing all the component parts of my system simultaneously, with the goal being able to rightly integrate the counsel offered by their numerous signals such that my interpretation of what they are all telegraphing as a conglomerate comes as close as possible to being flawless.
As part of the process, I am going to begin describing potential trade setups and giving them names (subject to change) so that they can be conveniently listed when the time comes...
THE TEMPORAL-BANK-SHOT
When a two- to three-hour price range envelope is sloping at a given angle, and candlesticks are forming on the half of the envelope opposite that of the angle’s trajectory (on the side of the envelope furthest away from the general direction in which price is flowing), traders may consider entering positions as candlesticks rebound, or are rejected, off the upper or lower band of the eight-hour temporal support or resistance channel (whichever is appropriate), in transition from a course contrary to the pitch of the envelope to one that is aligned with it.
RETURN OF THE PRODIGAL BASELINE
When the four-day baseline is sloping at a given angle, and candlesticks are forming on the side of the baseline opposite that of the its trajectory, traders may consider entering positions as candlesticks reverse direction from a course contrary to this measure's pitch to one that is aligned with it, as implied by a reversal in the eight-hour baseline (and possibly confirmed by a reversal in the 16-hour baseline as well).
RETURN OF THE PRODIGAL CANDLESTICKS
When the eight-hour baseline is sloping at a given angle, and candlesticks are forming on the side of the baseline opposite that of the its trajectory, traders may consider entering positions as candlesticks reverse direction from a course contrary to this measure's pitch to one that is aligned with it, as confirmed by a reversal in the 40-minute baseline (and possibly confirmed by a reversal in the two-hour baseline as well).
This is especially true if the move is backed up by the simultaneous rejection of price off the eight-hour temporal support or resistance level.
TWO-DAY BOUNDARY VIOLATION
Anticipate a possible, almost inevitable, regression toward the mean/mean reversion maneuver whenever candlesticks begin painting outside the upper or lower band of the two-day (48-hour) price range envelope at 1.70% deviation; as confirmed by a reversal in the two-hour to 2⅔-hour baseline (or if one wishes to trade aggressively, a reversal in the 40-minute and/or 70-minute baseline might be sufficient).
LONGER-TERM PRODIGAL SETUPS...
On a weekly chart, use the monthly baseline (constructed from the four-week moving average).
On a daily chart, consult the 8-day baseline.
Also consult the 4-day, 12-day and 40-day baselines.
With the nucleus of NPP now fully developed, I have shifted my focus to developing a routine for analyzing all the component parts of my system simultaneously, with the goal being able to rightly integrate the counsel offered by their numerous signals such that my interpretation of what they are all telegraphing as a conglomerate comes as close as possible to being flawless.
As part of the process, I am going to begin describing potential trade setups and giving them names (subject to change) so that they can be conveniently listed when the time comes...
THE TEMPORAL-BANK-SHOT
When a two- to three-hour price range envelope is sloping at a given angle, and candlesticks are forming on the half of the envelope opposite that of the angle’s trajectory (on the side of the envelope furthest away from the general direction in which price is flowing), traders may consider entering positions as candlesticks rebound, or are rejected, off the upper or lower band of the eight-hour temporal support or resistance channel (whichever is appropriate), in transition from a course contrary to the pitch of the envelope to one that is aligned with it.
RETURN OF THE PRODIGAL BASELINE
When the four-day baseline is sloping at a given angle, and candlesticks are forming on the side of the baseline opposite that of the its trajectory, traders may consider entering positions as candlesticks reverse direction from a course contrary to this measure's pitch to one that is aligned with it, as implied by a reversal in the eight-hour baseline (and possibly confirmed by a reversal in the 16-hour baseline as well).
RETURN OF THE PRODIGAL CANDLESTICKS
When the eight-hour baseline is sloping at a given angle, and candlesticks are forming on the side of the baseline opposite that of the its trajectory, traders may consider entering positions as candlesticks reverse direction from a course contrary to this measure's pitch to one that is aligned with it, as confirmed by a reversal in the 40-minute baseline (and possibly confirmed by a reversal in the two-hour baseline as well).
This is especially true if the move is backed up by the simultaneous rejection of price off the eight-hour temporal support or resistance level.
TWO-DAY BOUNDARY VIOLATION
Anticipate a possible, almost inevitable, regression toward the mean/mean reversion maneuver whenever candlesticks begin painting outside the upper or lower band of the two-day (48-hour) price range envelope at 1.70% deviation; as confirmed by a reversal in the two-hour to 2⅔-hour baseline (or if one wishes to trade aggressively, a reversal in the 40-minute and/or 70-minute baseline might be sufficient).
LONGER-TERM PRODIGAL SETUPS...
On a weekly chart, use the monthly baseline (constructed from the four-week moving average).
On a daily chart, consult the 8-day baseline.
Also consult the 4-day, 12-day and 40-day baselines.
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