Duxon's Archive

[expiated]

I have abandoned the use of the six-hour and nine-hour price ranges. The four-hour is good enough. For though I no longer think of it as the "backbone" of my system, it does still do the best job of suggesting the general overall flow of price, even if it is a bit lagging.

I was just looking at the Template you call "5-Minute FOUR HOUR PRICE RANGE" from your Forex.com charts and noticed the following...

• You should include the 50-minute price range on all your chart setups in that it provides very accurate intraday (statistical) support and resistance levels.
• Here is how the nine-hour price range works: Let's say the four-hour baseline is bearish, but price is at the bottom of the nine-hour price range. Well, in this situation there is a good chance that the four-hour baseline will not continue to be bearish for very long.
• On the other hand, perhaps the four-hour and nine-hour price ranges are both bullish, but price is located in both of their uppermost regions. Bullish or not, you have good reason to anticipate a possible pullback, especially in price is at the top of the 50-minute price range as well.

 

[expiated]

LET'S START CATALOGING POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPS AS THEY OCCUR TO YOU...

1. Price is located at the top or bottom of a price range that is sloping in the opposite direction.
2. Price is located where the tops or bottoms of two or three different price ranges are converging.
3. Price is located at the top or bottom of a given price range when the trajectory of the next highest measure (time wise) is in the opposite direction.

(So then, you're all about picking tops and bottoms—the very thing that Patrick (VP) of No Nonsense Forex says NOT to do!)

 

[expiated]

LET'S START CATALOGING POSSIBLE TRADE SETUPS AS THEY OCCUR TO YOU...

1. Price is located at the top or bottom of a price range that is sloping in the opposite direction.
2. Price is located where the tops or bottoms of two or three different price ranges are converging.
3. Price is located at the top or bottom of a given price range when the trajectory of the next highest measure (time wise) is in the opposite direction.
4. Candlesticks are painting below an upward sloping daily candlestick baseline or above a downward sloping daily candlestick baseline.

(By the way...this reminds me...you considered the six-hour baseline to be the day-to-day trend line, so you should probably reconsider your having dropped it from inclusion on your charts.)

There's no need. You only dropped the envelope, not the associated moving average(s). So, possible setup number five is Candlesticks are painting below an upward sloping six-hour baseline or above a downward sloping six-hour baseline (i.e., day-to-day trend line).

So, it's possible that you don't need the nine-hour envelope on you charts after all. If you have the day-to-day trend line(s) and the daily candlestick baseline, this should be enough to judge where price is headed in the long run given that the nine-hour baseline falls in between the two. Also, if price makes its way to the outer edges of the Consensus Moving Average Price Range and the Four-hour Price Range, this is reason enough to begin watching for a reversal—especially if price is also on the "wrong side" of the six-hour and/or daily candlestick baseline(s). Including the nine-hour price range probably won't change anything. You can use the configuration on your Forex.com charts to verify whether this is so.

Then, looking at your charts the way they are now configured, I'd have to say it turns out that the real backbone of your system is comprised of the seventy-five minute baseline and the consensus moving average price range.

 

[expiated]

LET'S START CATALOGING POSSIBLE (FIVE-MINUTE CHART) TRADE SETUPS AS THEY OCCUR TO YOU...

1. All of the histograms in the lower-panel chart (corresponding to the three core or "actionable" baselines) are positioned on one side of the Price Anomaly Channel, and the Instantaneous Moving Average Oscillator is forming a peak or trough on the opposite side of the channel—especially if the forty-minute histogram is painting beyond the "Chop Zone."
2. Price is located at the top or bottom of a price range that is sloping in the opposite direction.
3. Price is located where the tops or bottoms of two or three different price ranges are converging.
4. Price is located at the top or bottom of a given price range when the trajectory of the next highest measure (time wise) is in the opposite direction (or possibly even neutral).
5. Candlesticks are painting below an upward sloping daily-candlestick baseline or above a downward sloping daily-candlestick baseline.
6. Candlesticks are painting below an upward sloping day-to-day trend line or above a downward sloping day-to-day trend line.

 

[expiated]

Corollary to Trade Setups #5 and #6:

After translating the chart setup you call “Baseline Threshold” to one-hour charts, you determined that, as near as you can tell, there is a certain degree of slope with respect to the daily trend line cluster and daily candlestick baseline cluster under which price will NOT violate the minimum boundary/limit of the four-hour price range. If this is true, you should be able to use this to your advantage when purchasing Nadex two-hour binary option contracts during range-bound markets, provided you have a valid means of verifying when bona fide reversals have been initiated so as not to “jump the gun” just before a channel breakout.

 

[expiated]

I was curious about this because I saw at least one currency pair that was nearing the bottom of the weekly price range...

Actually, there are currently at least six currency pairs I watch that are either at or near weekly price range support.

 

[expiated]

Saturday / October 31, 2020 / 5:25 AM PST

Transferring the same tactic or technique (pasted below) to one-hour charts, I'm looking for the Daily Candlestick Baseline Histogram and the Day-to-day Trend Line Histogram to be positioned on one side of the Price Anomaly Channel, and the Two-hour Baseline Oscillator to be located on the other.

 

[expiated]

The individual from Alabama who expressed interest in paying for access to the Numerical Price Prediction system got back to me yesterday and offered to pay me a percentage of her profits if I would teach her the approach—but there is no way!

This would be like me, as a restaurant equipment supplier, giving my products out for free, with the promise that restaurant owners would pay me a percentage of their profits, even though I knew full well that around 60 percent of new restaurants fail within the first year, and nearly 80 percent shutter before their fifth anniversary.

I believe with the six setups listed in Post #344, it will be nearly impossible for someone NOT to make money using NPP, provided they execute these methods as described. This makes the system almost invaluable in and of itself, regardless of whether a particular person is able to make money with it or not. Yet, if I teach what I've created to anyone else, my intellectual property will be out there in the public domain without any way for me to get it back—for free!

That would be insane!!!

So, I told her I would be willing for her to pay me a percentage of what she makes from my mentoring her. If she makes nothing, she pays me nothing. But, depending on her answers to the following questions, there might or might not be any point to doing this:

1. On what days do you trade?
2. During what hours do you trade?
3. Are you a day trader, swing trader, or position trader?
4. Which assets/instruments do you trade?

She said she would get back to me, which I don't think is a good sign.

Frankly, though I know I could be wrong, it seems to me that anyone who is not trading regularly scheduled hours is not serious enough to be profitable, because they are treating trading like a hobby. Hence, taking the time to "help" such an individual would just not be worth the effort to me.

 

[expiated]

Transferring the same tactic or technique (pasted below) to one-hour charts, I'm looking for the Daily Candlestick Baseline Histogram and the Day-to-day Trend Line Histogram to be positioned on one side of the Price Anomaly Channel, and the Two-hour Baseline Oscillator to be located on the other.

This will amount to much more of a "waiting around" style of trading, with most currency pairs offering only one setup per day, if any at all, and no more than two at the most. I have therefore coded an alert signal using the corresponding parameters so that there will be no need for me to actively monitor my charts.

On the bright side, each position should be almost guaranteed to have a positive outcome, offering a return of $50 or more at expiry. And if this works out, I should very quickly be able to rely on it as my primary source of income, going on to grow the funds it generates exponentially if it in fact yields consistent results.

(On the other hand, if the five-minute chart setups yield the same kind of results with five times the frequency, that will obviously be the better way to go. Except that the big question will be whether the out-of-money contracts can make up the distance between the indicative price and the strike price in such a limited amount of time.)

 

[expiated]

Sunday / November 1, 2020 / 2:45 PM PST

It was almost nine years ago (November 5, 2011) that I started a blog to document a new phase of my quest to realize financial independence via online trading. I began it by reflecting on thoughts I had from a year earlier, when I was still trading stocks. Now, nine years later, I hope to see this phase completed.

Some say that trading is an art, requiring you to develop a feel for the markets and to tweak your system until it suits your purpose and your personality. I’m not going to argue with this. But, I will say that’s not what Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) is about at all.

I spent most of Saturday quantifying all the relevant parameters and settings I could think of that make the system what it is and recording them in a manual. There are very specific actions to be taken upon observing rather precise readings. Feel has nothing to do with it. These protocols were established in large part thanks to an effort to overcome the obstacles inherent in trying to trade profitably using the North American Derivatives Exchange (NADEX) platform. But, now that they exist, they should make trading successfully with any traditional Forex broker almost a given, God willing.

If they work, I can more-or-less cease recording information via this thread since there will be essentially nothing left to discover. But, I will hopefully know for sure whether this is the case in probably no more than a week from now.