Quote from spect8or:
So we've gone from 'could very well be' to 'may' be. That's a little vague isn't it? My hitting the 'Submit Reply' button after finishing this post may be - by some convoluted chain of causation - catastrophic for America. I don't mean to be smart,
but could I ask you to spell out the catastrophe that awaits should America pull out of Iraq, and how, specifically, that catastrophe would be precipitated by the pullout
Oh, you do mean to be a smart aleck, but we all do that on occasion.
Anyway, and for the final time, pulling out of Iraq without the ability of the Iraqis to provide security would be a decisive defeat for the US and hailed as such in the Muslim world. Nothing would help the spread of radical Islam more than being able to claim that, far from being held in check by the US, it is in fact a rising force as demonstrated by a victory for itself in Iraq. This would boost the morale of our enemies immensely, enable them to recruit in higher numbers, and instill in them the perception that they can win.
Again, bin Laden said that the US lacked the will for a protracted fight as evidenced by the weak response to Somalia, the Khobar Towers, and the USS Cole incident. Taking out the Taliban after 9/11 repudiated that, but retreating from Iraq would revive the belief of US weakness.
Now tell me, do you think Al Qaeda and the other Islamic radicals would just lay down their arms against us and go back to tending goats and sheeps? Or would they be more determined than ever to strike us again, and at home? If you had an enemy on the ropes, would you just let him go, or would you try to deliver the coup de grace?
Iran would love this. Qaddafi had the shit scared out of him when we took out Saddam - he worried he could be next - which resulted in Libya's "voluntary disarmament." Think that would work with Iran if we lost in Iraq? If we cut and run it would be evidence that the US simply does not have the will to confront its nuclear ambitions militarily, at least in a protracted sense, and thus diplomacy wouldn't have a chance without the prospect of US force. Who's going to scare Iran if not us? The UN? Give me a break....
And once Iran has nukes, don't you think that will be motivation for the other nations in the region to do so as well? It could mean an arms race.
So yes, I think these events could be catastrophic for the US.
Besides the above, think about what else a defeat for us in Iraq would mean:
Total loss of credibility with Muslim reformers, who have seen millions of Iraqis vote despite the risk to their lives, in pursuit of democracy. If we were to cut and run, and abandon those Iraqis, other reform-minded Muslims would of course NOT gamble their own lives and futures on American support. Not only that, each country in the Middle East would reevaluate its own position vis a vis the United States. Those who support us, even tacitly, would have to reconsider their stance, and for the worse.
Much broader instability in the region. Iran would have a free hand to meddle in Iraq and help wackos like al-Sadr usurp moderates like Sistani. Syria would have a free hand to again meddle in Lebanon and, along with Iran, let Hezbollah loose on Israel again.
(Also, what if Americans were united in support of a pullout? Would that still embolden? Again, sincere questions, hap.)
Of course it would still embolden our enemies. A defeat for us in Iraq is a victory for radical Islam, regardless of how many Americans support our withdrawal.