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DRT's Currency Trades
- Thread starter downrivertrader
- Start date
I've been flat EURUSD for awhile, but I'm turning bearish now (bearish on EUR, bullish on USD). The U.S. economy is weakening, but I'd say that this is old news (very old news) and priced in already. I don't think EURUSD can go much higher without provoking some kind of "open-mouth" intervention from European authorities (they probably won't intervene directly, but they can say things to "talk down" the market).
And the weak hand dollar bulls should have been flushed out by this most recent run-up in EURUSD.
Dec futures were at 1.2799 when I started writing, now they are down to 1.2794.
I'm putting in a stop-loss, of course (not saying where) - if I'm wrong, I'll take the loss and move on to the next trade.
And the weak hand dollar bulls should have been flushed out by this most recent run-up in EURUSD.
Dec futures were at 1.2799 when I started writing, now they are down to 1.2794.
I'm putting in a stop-loss, of course (not saying where) - if I'm wrong, I'll take the loss and move on to the next trade.
The spike up to 1.2831 came close to triggering my stop, but I'm still in this trade.
EUR is now down to 1.2789.
EUR is overvalued in terms of PPP and the interest rate differential favors USD. Here are today's rates from Oanda:
Bid/Ask
EUR 2.8500/3.1500
USD 4.8250/5.3750
Also EUR's uptrend since late 2005 has been broken: we are stuck in a trading range now. I think the next trend will be down.
EUR is now down to 1.2789.
EUR is overvalued in terms of PPP and the interest rate differential favors USD. Here are today's rates from Oanda:
Bid/Ask
EUR 2.8500/3.1500
USD 4.8250/5.3750
Also EUR's uptrend since late 2005 has been broken: we are stuck in a trading range now. I think the next trend will be down.
Quote from asterisk:
The spike up to 1.2831 came close to triggering my stop, but I'm still in this trade.
EUR is now down to 1.2789.
EUR is overvalued in terms of PPP and the interest rate differential favors USD. Here are today's rates from Oanda:
Bid/Ask
EUR 2.8500/3.1500
USD 4.8250/5.3750
Also EUR's uptrend since late 2005 has been broken: we are stuck in a trading range now. I think the next trend will be down.
"The spike up to 1.2831 "?
Which broker's price was that? It seems to me Oanda was 1.27990.
Almost 30 pips difference.
Quote from patrick_newB:
EUR is Euro futures. EUR/USD is spot. 1.2831 was on futures. Hope that clarifies things.
Thanks. My response was referring to your Oanda prices below.
BTW, CME uses "CME Euro FX Futures"
http://www.cme.com/trading/prd/contract_spec_EC2465.html
PS: There is another forum for financial futures.
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/forumdisplay.php?s=&forumid=41
Quote from asterisk:
The spike up to 1.2831 came close to triggering my stop, but I'm still in this trade.
EUR is now down to 1.2789.
EUR is overvalued in terms of PPP and the interest rate differential favors USD. Here are today's rates from Oanda:
Bid/Ask
EUR 2.8500/3.1500
USD 4.8250/5.3750
Also EUR's uptrend since late 2005 has been broken: we are stuck in a trading range now. I think the next trend will be down.
OddTrader,
The price in my post is from the CME (easier for me talk about the futures price because that's what I'm trading - I thought it was clear that this is what I was talking about from my 10-31-06 06:58 PM post, which immediately precedes the "spike up" post), but the interest rates are from Oanda (I don't collect interest on my futures position, but the interest rate differential is "built-in" to the futures price by arbitrage considerations).
I could post in the financial futures forum, but consider this:
When EUR futures move up, EUR/USD spot also moves up.
When EUR futures move down, EUR/USD spot also moves down
(with the exception of some fleeting arbitrage opportunities)
If EUR futures are spiking, then EUR/USD spot is also spiking.
IDEALPro doesn't tell me highs/lows and I don't completely trust the prices on IDEAL because of some of the stories posted here.
But OK - if you think I should post currency futures trades elsewhere, I'll do that. Anyways, here is an update about my trade: as you probably guessed, my bearish EUR futures position paid off today with the favorable payrolls report - and anyone holding bearish EUR/USD spot positions should have done well today, too. I'll let you guess whether I closed the position or not.
--------------------------
P.S. patrick_new8: thanks for reading my posts and explaining that I was talking about the futures price.
The price in my post is from the CME (easier for me talk about the futures price because that's what I'm trading - I thought it was clear that this is what I was talking about from my 10-31-06 06:58 PM post, which immediately precedes the "spike up" post), but the interest rates are from Oanda (I don't collect interest on my futures position, but the interest rate differential is "built-in" to the futures price by arbitrage considerations).
I could post in the financial futures forum, but consider this:
When EUR futures move up, EUR/USD spot also moves up.
When EUR futures move down, EUR/USD spot also moves down
(with the exception of some fleeting arbitrage opportunities)
If EUR futures are spiking, then EUR/USD spot is also spiking.
IDEALPro doesn't tell me highs/lows and I don't completely trust the prices on IDEAL because of some of the stories posted here.
But OK - if you think I should post currency futures trades elsewhere, I'll do that. Anyways, here is an update about my trade: as you probably guessed, my bearish EUR futures position paid off today with the favorable payrolls report - and anyone holding bearish EUR/USD spot positions should have done well today, too. I'll let you guess whether I closed the position or not.
--------------------------
P.S. patrick_new8: thanks for reading my posts and explaining that I was talking about the futures price.