DRT's Currency Trades

Quote from asterisk:

I've been flat EURUSD for awhile, but I'm turning bearish now (bearish on EUR, bullish on USD). The U.S. economy is weakening, but I'd say that this is old news (very old news) and priced in already. I don't think EURUSD can go much higher without provoking some kind of "open-mouth" intervention from European authorities (they probably won't intervene directly, but they can say things to "talk down" the market).

And the weak hand dollar bulls should have been flushed out by this most recent run-up in EURUSD.

Dec futures were at 1.2799 when I started writing, now they are down to 1.2794.

I'm putting in a stop-loss, of course (not saying where) - if I'm wrong, I'll take the loss and move on to the next trade.
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??? :confused:
 
OddTrader,

You realize that EUR/USD spot and EUR futures (I call them EUR futures because "EUR" is the symbol for Euro futures on Interactive Brokers) are nearly 100% correlated (I'm guessing around 99.5%), don't you? This relationship is enforced through arbitrage.

My only aim in asking this is to try to clear up the source of your confusion. I don't mean this as anything other than a simple question to try to figure out why you might be confused (your :confused: indicates that you are confused, right?)
 
Here's the thought process that I go through for bets on exchange rates:

first: do I think the exchange rate is going to go up or down? (or stay flat)
second: how do I want to implement my view? If I think the Euro is going to strengthen against the dollar, should I buy Euros in the spot market, buy Euro futures, buy call options, sell put options, or buy bull spreads?

The first part of my post discussed my view on the exchange rate (bearish on the Euro), and the second part was about implementation details.

If I'm bearish on the Euro and someone else is bullish, I'd be interested in hearing his reasoning. I'd like to hear his reasons for being bullish regardless of whether he is long spot, long futures, long calls, short puts, or long bull spreads.

OddTrader,
Are you still confused? If so, tell me, and I'll try to clear things up.
 
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