DRT's Currency Trades

Also, on the USDJPY I am sure everyone is aware of the N. Korean Nuclear threats. This could really throw things out of whack. If there was JPY selling last week and a favorable outcome to the crisis is in sight, then these shorts may be unwound.

I remember reading somewhere a comment by a good old trader that says......

"Show me the chart and I will tell you the news"
 
Quote from downrivertrader:

If you ever check in here at the Chronicles of a former Idiot.....

You know I get these feelings from time to time. It happens often when I am staring at the charts. I have put a sign out front advertising psychic reader, but so far no one has stopped by.

I can see a huge run back to the topside for the EUR this month. Maybe 130. Just when we think she is worn out. Then beginning next month a move back down and beyond to southern limits not seen for a while maybe around 122 area or so.

If you think about it....its just too simple right now. Eur breaks down and gives up....nope probably not....the run up will coincide with a bounce in oil, gold and commodities this month until they exhaust and realize it ain't happening long term. The real trend will then re-assert itself downward for a good while.

Then again...it is just a guess. There would be a lot of carnage in the process, just what Mr. Market likes to do to all of us. Should be entertaining to say the least.


Good luck everyone.

DRT
More...

Surely you jest.
 
Good morning everyone....


Long 50 contracts of EC at 2604. (Equates to long EURUSD around 2558).
Long 30 contracts of JY at 8450. (Equates to short USDJPY around 119.45)


The EURO trade is within my theme, most likely a little early but I am okay with it. I decided to get ahead of the options defense at 2550. I will likely take some heat on this one. There is certainly a possiblility of a run down to 2450 on spot. So I will cover quickly if it gets away from me. I am beginning to see a nice run up in this pair though. I am still beginning to think that we may see a strong move up. Blowoff type top.

The JPY trade is just as I planned. I waited for a surge up toward the 119.58 area on spot. Same here as a break is certainly possible against me.

Will update later today.

DRT
 
pda_update.PNG
 
Quote from downrivertrader:

Good morning everyone....


Long 50 contracts of EC at 2604. (Equates to long EURUSD around 2558).
Long 30 contracts of JY at 8450. (Equates to short USDJPY around 119.45)


The EURO trade is within my theme, most likely a little early but I am okay with it. I decided to get ahead of the options defense at 2550. I will likely take some heat on this one. There is certainly a possiblility of a run down to 2450 on spot. So I will cover quickly if it gets away from me. I am beginning to see a nice run up in this pair though. I am still beginning to think that we may see a strong move up. Blowoff type top.

The JPY trade is just as I planned. I waited for a surge up toward the 119.58 area on spot. Same here as a break is certainly possible against me.

Will update later today.

DRT
More...

DRT, how are you able to put on these futures positions at IB? You indicated that you cut yourself a check at the end of each week for any balance over $150K, correct? If I'm not mistaken, these positions have a value of about $10,988,000 and require $222,750 in initial margin, much more than $150,000. Are there different margin rules for high rollers at IB? :p

Also, I'm struck by your ability to "take some heat". Something like $30,000 worth of heat just in the first hour, I think, right? ($20K on EC and $10K on JY.) A combination of extremely high leverage and non-tight stops... don't see that very often.
 
Some tips on dealing with these bold blue and magenta lines. Although it certainly can, does and will happen. Generally, these lines do not have price travel through like a caffeined induced traders index....rather

There is generally a surge, then a reversal and then value builds around these levels. In other words....value changes and the auction plays out until there is a decided direction for the next level of value.

Soooo....patience is the key. Remember, its a process not an event.


DRT
 
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