DRT's Currency Trades

Thursday night....

Here's an update on my positions.

Week 1 - Closed trades P&L = $68,187

Week 2 - Closed trades P&L = $38,750
Current trades open = $13,875
  • EC
    Still short 10 EC from 2850. EC closed today at 2739. Up 111 ticks per contract or $13,875.
    Short 10 EC from 2783. Closed this trade today at 2727for 56 ticks per contract or $7,000.
    Short 20 EC from 2766. Closed this trade today at 2727 for 39 ticks per contract or $9,750
  • CD

    Short CD from 8977. My target was hit while fishing today at .8867. Up 110 ticks per contract or $22,000.

Profit so far this week is $52,625.

DRT
 
Well here we are on Friday morning and the NFP is due out.

EURUSD/EC

Looking back at our theme at the beginning of the week...we were focused on the test of the 2720 midrange. We tested it and now have settled below this level. We used a moves back into this area for ous short set ups and picked up some nice profit on these trades. The 2592 area was our next major obstacle and we worked this level yesterday. It was broken and has held so far on the topside. We seem to be set for a run down to the bottom area of the short term curve which is the 2580/2530 area.

I have to say that I am not totally convinced this pair is ready to go down just yet. For one thing, we are right at the bottom of the range. Options defense will be strong also. I am just not comfortable buying into the move out of the consolidation yet. If anything, it looks like a place to get long but maybe I am wrong.

The bad thing is that it will likely be an emotional day with NFP setting the tone and Friday's are notorius for days of change. I would not be surprised to see a big move up and then a resumption of the downtrend next week. Bottom line is that I am not sure and I may sit this one out until I see what happens.

I do see a possible move back up to 2710/2700 or more. And to top it off, I still see the move back down to the 117.33 area on the USDJPY.

The EURUSD buy area would be around 2651.


DRT
 
As of today.... I also see better entries as follows

USDJPY - 117.33 or just below to go long

USDCAD - 1.1166/45 or just below to go long

I may be totally off on this and we can look at higher levels if the breakout takes off.

Good luck today everyone.

DRT
 
I am going to sit this one out. I hope no one was caught in that carnage. I want to see what happens today as I am really, really undecided here. I can see a possible run back up to the topside and it makes me want to get long but I am not sure so I will think on it some more.

Will check back later today.

DRT
 
Hey DRT,

I like your journal and it looks like you have a pretty good idea about what you're doing. Do you only trade the majors? If not, what other pairs are you looking at?

I agree with you on USD/CAD...I'd feel safe buying it around 1.1150 then looking for an upside around 1.1320 or a little higher.

Good luck!
 
WHoa. Change in plans

I will likely get long at 2577/2568 area EURUSD.

2626/2616 EC

DRT


The break will come below 2572 most likely. Be very careful. I hope we have the weekend to think about it. I want to see where my "MRiver" value comes in.

mcurve.PNG
 
[13:03 EUR/USD: 1.2600 Barrier Erased; 1.2560 Next Support] Boston, October 6.
EUR/USD managed to trade below 1.2600, triggering a barrier option allowing the
sellers of the option to avoid a huge payout. EUR/USD is heavily oversold
intraday and vulnerable to a snap-back like seen last Friday under similar
circumstances. 1.2660/65 is first resistance of note, 1.2560 the immediate
downside target. With the market very short options volatility, sustained EUR
weakness could see significant delta hedging, driving prices lower.
 
I also have sell levels on

USDJPY at 119.19/ 119.10 area

CAD 1.1322 / 1.1303 area

Short term trades.
Very careful because these are breakout levls if we shoot way thru.

DRT
 
The EUR and JPY are nearing the levels I described above. What will usually (and I use this term loosely at a breakout level) happen is price will bounce solidly out of these levels. Then there will be a retest. You can look to setup on the retest if the drama is too much for your blood pressure.

DRT
 
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