DRT's Currency Trades

I think the EUR is beginning to look like an old horse. Russia has been buying heaps and heaps of them, and that alone should tell you the long term outlook of the EUR is not good. Russia never does anything right.

However, the market will do what it "feels" is the best bet. Regardless of financial situation, the EUR will probably make a run near the end of the year again. Things are just setting up to look a lot like 2004. There's even a US election to add more fun.
 
Recap of EUR(EC) trade.

Avg short 30 EC contracts at 2771. Close at 2790. Down 19 ticks per contract or -$7,000.

The surge thru the 2720 spot midrange area held up a built value above. If we move back down to 2720 spot I will likely cover this trade and wait as this could be the launching point for the upward breakout. It may have already begun.

I am going to keep an eye on things for a while. I still see a possible move down and may wait it out.

DRT
 
Which end of the horse does it look like?

Quote from Ivanovich:

I think the EUR is beginning to look like an old horse. Russia has been buying heaps and heaps of them, and that alone should tell you the long term outlook of the EUR is not good. Russia never does anything right.

However, the market will do what it "feels" is the best bet. Regardless of financial situation, the EUR will probably make a run near the end of the year again. Things are just setting up to look a lot like 2004. There's even a US election to add more fun.
More...
 
This is somewhat interesting. The study below is a median channel with 2% boundaries stretched from the two peaks made in late 2004 early 2005. If you look closely, you will see that the pair is attempting to regain that original channel. It tried previously and was rejected.

The close up of the current battle is highlighted in the second chart. If the channel is successfully re-taken, it could lead to a big move up. On the other hand, if it is rejected a second time, a big move down could be in the works.

DRT

EURChannel.PNG



Here is the close up of the battle.

EURChannel_close.PNG
 
I still see a better entry for USDJPY in the 117.33 area. The JY futures contract hit my sell area of 8606 but I did not enter since spot still needs to resolve the 117.33 area. I may be sorry. Funny how they can always find a news event to explain a directional move.

DRT

09:42 USD/JPY: North Korean News Turns Sentiment] London, October 3. News of a
future nuclear test by North Korea has turned sentiment in USD/JPY, with the
pair extending initial gains to record a 117.88 high. EUR/JPY selling pressure
saw USD/JPY breach 117.55 support and fill in bids between 117.50 and 117.40
early on, increasing the downside risk. However, the North Korean news has seen
price action shift back to the topside, bringing offers from 117.90-00 into
focus. Short-term momentum accounts that sold yesterday after the pair failed
ahead of the 118.45 trend line have seen trailing stops filled. CTAs and
leverage accounts have been noted in the move up, reportedly operating through
US names and a French name. Equally, EUR/JPY has also extended its turnaround,
with the pair now testing the 150.25 resistance. Interest via the cross has been
a contributory factor in the USD/JPY upturn, with prices jumping from 149.95/00
up to 150.22 in the last move higher.



Quote from downrivertrader:

I will try to get the USDJPY thoughts posted later in the session.

Right now I see a better long entry down near the 117.33 area. If we break to the top now, next stop is 118.84 and 119.10 area.
More...
 
This small battle we are in right now in the 2720 midrange of the EURUSD is very important. I think the winner may take all at some point over the next few sessions.

Hopefully some of you got in on the CAD buy from yesterday. I know Kastro did. He is paying for his megayacht with it.:)


DRT
 
I think the US stock markets are heading up big time. Especially since all I am hearing is how we are due for a move down.

WHat if the SP went to 1500 area?

Anyone know what this would mean for the USD vs the majors?? if something like this did occur.


SP.PNG
 
I tried to keep it a secret, but they found out...


13:42 FX OPTIONS: EUR/USD Large 1.2600-1.2850 DNT Expiry Friday] London,
October 3. A 1.2600-1.2850 exotic Double No Touch option, carrying a large
payout, is slated to roll off this Friday (post-US employment report). The DNT
was bought on September 22.
 
Saw that DNT long ago. Have been wondering if that isn't one of the reasons behind the range as it was for the last few weeks. These DNTs are a pain in the ass.
 
I agree Ivan. All we have been doing is flowing along with all of the plays. It gets old after a while.



16:02 EUR/USD: Hijacked Plane Lands in Brindisi, Italy] Boston, October 3. Dow
Jones reports that the hijacked Turkish airliner has landed at Brindisi, Italy.
The EUR/USD has eased into the mid-1.2720s. Dealers report rumors of buying on
dips by a quasi-central bank. Putting two and two together, this dovetails with
earlier reports of Mid-East selling of gold with the proceeds being converted
into EUR as reserve diversification continues. Bids are eyed in the 1.2705/10
area if intraday support in the low 1.2720s gives way.
 
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