This one paints a good picture
DRT's Currency Trades
- Thread starter downrivertrader
- Start date
This is a Fibo price projection of the long weekly uptrend that began at the end of last year. Many times, markets reverse at the 1.61% extension and this pair did. We are now testing the 1.27% level (again I might add). My thoughts here were that moving below this level is a strong signal that the market is heading down to the 100% level near 1.2510 which represents the bottom of the current price distribution I have been discussing in this thread. I would not trade based on this exact level, rather use it as additional evidence to make a trade decision.
The thing about Mr. Davinci's Codes is that they are largely self-fullfilling becauase many other traders may be thinking the same things based on this tool.
We closed today just about dead on it after a bounce.
DRT
The thing about Mr. Davinci's Codes is that they are largely self-fullfilling becauase many other traders may be thinking the same things based on this tool.
We closed today just about dead on it after a bounce.
DRT
Interesting sqwauking....
20:33 EUR BRIEFING: Song Remains the Same - - - - - - - - - See 2335 ] Early
EUR strength dissipated early in the US session as dealers focused on rising US
yields instead of the backward looking GDP data. It is becoming apparent that
hedge-fund blow-ups in the bond market had more to do with last week"s yield
slide than fears of a hard landing. Risk aversion trades have seen macro
accounts selling EUR/USD strength all week, dealers report. Russian buying
continues to halt declines at 1.2680, however.
EUR/USD spent most of the US afternoon glued to the 1.2700/05 area before
drifting up modestly in the wake of the Schumer/Graham China Tariffs bill going
to the legislative graveyard. This is a major victory for new Treasury Secretary
Paulson, boosting his already formidable credibility with the markets and with
the Chinese. Looking ahead, a busy calendar awaits on Friday. German retail
sales, French consumer confidence, US PCE and Chicago PMI are some of the
highlights. Hopefully month and quarter-end will conspire to push EUR/USD from
tight ranges, but of this there is no guarantee. 1.2680/1.2730 looks likely
through the US open.
20:33 EUR BRIEFING: Song Remains the Same - - - - - - - - - See 2335 ] Early
EUR strength dissipated early in the US session as dealers focused on rising US
yields instead of the backward looking GDP data. It is becoming apparent that
hedge-fund blow-ups in the bond market had more to do with last week"s yield
slide than fears of a hard landing. Risk aversion trades have seen macro
accounts selling EUR/USD strength all week, dealers report. Russian buying
continues to halt declines at 1.2680, however.
EUR/USD spent most of the US afternoon glued to the 1.2700/05 area before
drifting up modestly in the wake of the Schumer/Graham China Tariffs bill going
to the legislative graveyard. This is a major victory for new Treasury Secretary
Paulson, boosting his already formidable credibility with the markets and with
the Chinese. Looking ahead, a busy calendar awaits on Friday. German retail
sales, French consumer confidence, US PCE and Chicago PMI are some of the
highlights. Hopefully month and quarter-end will conspire to push EUR/USD from
tight ranges, but of this there is no guarantee. 1.2680/1.2730 looks likely
through the US open.
Pound sqwauking....
[20:06 GBP BRIEFING: Statistical Error Weighs All Day - - - -See 2339 ] Boston,
September 28. Many GBP positions were reportedly exited today on the back of the
admission by the ONS that a modeling error had overstated inflation. The ONS
slashed its estimate of annual inflation in export prices from 3.8% to 0.6%, and
thus reduced its estimate of overall inflation for goods and services produced
by British companies to 2.2%, from 3.4%. The ONS admission cast lots of doubt on
the need for the BoE to hike the base rate by another 25bp to 5.0% in November.
Long liquidation depressed GBP/USD to a nine-day low of 1.8724, and buoyed
EUR/GBP to a 15-day high of 0.6777. A couple of EZ National Central Banks are
also reported to have been buyers of EUR/GBP today, for month and quarter-end
intergovernmental payments to the EU. A very modest bounce was seen into the
afternoon. Offers remain on rebounds toward 1.8800/05.
UK Mortgage lending and consumer credit is set for release tomorrow; strong loan
demand will help gear up MPC expectations again despite the ONS statistical
error. A busy US calendar includes PCE and Chicago PMI.
[20:06 GBP BRIEFING: Statistical Error Weighs All Day - - - -See 2339 ] Boston,
September 28. Many GBP positions were reportedly exited today on the back of the
admission by the ONS that a modeling error had overstated inflation. The ONS
slashed its estimate of annual inflation in export prices from 3.8% to 0.6%, and
thus reduced its estimate of overall inflation for goods and services produced
by British companies to 2.2%, from 3.4%. The ONS admission cast lots of doubt on
the need for the BoE to hike the base rate by another 25bp to 5.0% in November.
Long liquidation depressed GBP/USD to a nine-day low of 1.8724, and buoyed
EUR/GBP to a 15-day high of 0.6777. A couple of EZ National Central Banks are
also reported to have been buyers of EUR/GBP today, for month and quarter-end
intergovernmental payments to the EU. A very modest bounce was seen into the
afternoon. Offers remain on rebounds toward 1.8800/05.
UK Mortgage lending and consumer credit is set for release tomorrow; strong loan
demand will help gear up MPC expectations again despite the ONS statistical
error. A busy US calendar includes PCE and Chicago PMI.
Lastly some Yen sqwauking.....
[20:13 JPY Briefing: Steady $ Buying As Options Attract - - -See 2337 ] New
York, September 28. USD/JPY opened the NY session at 117.52, and despite soft US
data - Q2 US GDP was revised down from 2.9% to 2.6% - rallied post data. Spot
traders were at a loss for an explanation, however options traders hedging
deltas as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY option strikes neared knew quite well what was
going on. 117.80 option strikes rolling off today - and at the same level
tomorrow - pulled spot higher, exacerbated by EUR/JPY strikes at 149.90 for both
today and tomorrow. Even though EUR/JPY stalled at 149.75, the presence of those
strikes going into tomorrow left a constant bid in the market. USD/JPY topped
out at 117.95 - in what appeared to be a solid exotic barrier defence. Profit
taking pushed the pair down to close at 117.75.
News that Senator Schumer had decided to drop his China Tariff bill left the
market in a bullish (USD) mood, although later comments that they would focus
their energies on formulating a China bill that would be "WTO compliant" may
have taken some of the shine off. Cancellation of the bill was attributed to
President Bush, who evidently requested that Tsy Sec Paulson be given a chance
to resolve the issue with his Chinese counterpart.
[20:13 JPY Briefing: Steady $ Buying As Options Attract - - -See 2337 ] New
York, September 28. USD/JPY opened the NY session at 117.52, and despite soft US
data - Q2 US GDP was revised down from 2.9% to 2.6% - rallied post data. Spot
traders were at a loss for an explanation, however options traders hedging
deltas as USD/JPY and EUR/JPY option strikes neared knew quite well what was
going on. 117.80 option strikes rolling off today - and at the same level
tomorrow - pulled spot higher, exacerbated by EUR/JPY strikes at 149.90 for both
today and tomorrow. Even though EUR/JPY stalled at 149.75, the presence of those
strikes going into tomorrow left a constant bid in the market. USD/JPY topped
out at 117.95 - in what appeared to be a solid exotic barrier defence. Profit
taking pushed the pair down to close at 117.75.
News that Senator Schumer had decided to drop his China Tariff bill left the
market in a bullish (USD) mood, although later comments that they would focus
their energies on formulating a China bill that would be "WTO compliant" may
have taken some of the shine off. Cancellation of the bill was attributed to
President Bush, who evidently requested that Tsy Sec Paulson be given a chance
to resolve the issue with his Chinese counterpart.
Whistle while you work
Hi DRT,
Been following your thread with much interest. Thanks for sharing and for being so open on this thread and others!
I trade the CME currency futures as well, primarily the Euro, using Market Profile to identify market condition and key reference areas. I would appreciate it if you could respond to a few questions at your convenience.
1. Could you describe, at a high level, your trading methodology? I gather that you use pivot points, Market Profile (in a general way, not a purist), and fibs.
2. How do you set stops? Do you use the next pivot point for your stop? In general, how far is your stop when you enter a daytrade/position trade in the Euro? For example, your stops for last week's trades.
3. How do you determine how many EC contracts to trade?
4. When creating your Market Profile graphic for a currency, what start and end time do you use?
Wow, I'm asking a lot of questions, but hey, you've impressed me with your posts and trading...
Feel free to PM me if you prefer. Thanks in advance.
Been following your thread with much interest. Thanks for sharing and for being so open on this thread and others!
I trade the CME currency futures as well, primarily the Euro, using Market Profile to identify market condition and key reference areas. I would appreciate it if you could respond to a few questions at your convenience.
1. Could you describe, at a high level, your trading methodology? I gather that you use pivot points, Market Profile (in a general way, not a purist), and fibs.
2. How do you set stops? Do you use the next pivot point for your stop? In general, how far is your stop when you enter a daytrade/position trade in the Euro? For example, your stops for last week's trades.
3. How do you determine how many EC contracts to trade?
4. When creating your Market Profile graphic for a currency, what start and end time do you use?
Wow, I'm asking a lot of questions, but hey, you've impressed me with your posts and trading...
Feel free to PM me if you prefer. Thanks in advance.
I am happy to report that I am going fishing tommorrow so enjoy the day without me.
Do you ever get a funny predictive type feeling when looking at things. I can't explain it, but I have a feeling, just a hunch mind you that the market is going to move big time tommorrow. I can't explain it really, sometimes it comes over me. Most people think I am crazy, but I act on these feelings. I am not going to make it an official prediction or anything because it is probably just the moon. I will trade it out of my hunch account if there is any money in it.
Here is my unofficial prediction. The EURUSD will drop 170 points tommorrow while I am fishing. Also the CAD and JPY will breakout. Guess I better load up the boat. At least this will give you all a good laugh.
Here are the targets:
EURUSD 2520
EC 2597
Take care and good luck trading. I am looking forward to next week. Hopefully, we will get things going.
Do you ever get a funny predictive type feeling when looking at things. I can't explain it, but I have a feeling, just a hunch mind you that the market is going to move big time tommorrow. I can't explain it really, sometimes it comes over me. Most people think I am crazy, but I act on these feelings. I am not going to make it an official prediction or anything because it is probably just the moon. I will trade it out of my hunch account if there is any money in it.
Here is my unofficial prediction. The EURUSD will drop 170 points tommorrow while I am fishing. Also the CAD and JPY will breakout. Guess I better load up the boat. At least this will give you all a good laugh.
Here are the targets:
EURUSD 2520
EC 2597
Take care and good luck trading. I am looking forward to next week. Hopefully, we will get things going.
I think you have the "Force"
Market did great today, closed out my USD/CAD trade with 64 pips.
Good luck fishing.
-Kastro
Market did great today, closed out my USD/CAD trade with 64 pips.
Good luck fishing.
-Kastro