DRT's Currency Trades

Wednesday evening update..

  • Short 50 contracts EC at 2850. Today's close 2699.

    Covered 30 contracts at 2757. Up 93 ticks per contract or $34,875.
    Covered 10 contracts at 2747. Up 103 ticks per contract or $12,875.
    Still Open 10 contracts from 2850. Up 91 ticks per contract or $11,375.

    Total profit in EC trade to date is $59,125.
  • Short 20 contracts CD at 8977. Today's close at 9020. Down 43 ticks per contract or -$8,600
  • Short 10 contracts BP at 9041. Closed at 8962.
    Closed this trade at 8956. Up 79 ticks or $4,937.
  • Long 10 contracts USDJPY at 116.19. Today's close 117.47. Up 128 ticks per contract or $12,800.
Total Profit on these trades opened last Thursday is currently $68,262.
 
I have elected to close the USDJPY trade at 117.43. I am going to watch value building at this level for now. Update to follow.

Total profit on this trade was $12,400.

DRT
 
Quote from downrivertrader:

When trading price distribution it is important to understand that

A NORMAL day occurs 62% of the time
A NORMAL variation day occurs about 20% of the time

These two types of distribution on the curve make up 82% of all your trading days. Do not forget this.

A TREND day only occurs about 6% of the time.

Understand the curve and learn to take advantage of this understanding. Especially if you are a day or session trader.


Look at the curve below. It seems as though the curve needs to trade up to balance. My guess is that we will head up to test the top 2715/20 maybe more and then settle back down near value.


If you are a session trader, watch this develop. You do not have to be a Market Profile genius to benefit from this understanding. If nothing else it will caution you when placing a buy or sell order on an extreme. I do not subscribe to MP.

BTW - The box around price represents 2X standard deviation from value. Sound familiar?


DRT

UERUSD_Day_Dist.PNG
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BTW - The box around price represents 2X standard deviation from value. Sound familiar?

DRT,

Can you expalin futher why 2X std. deviation from value should sound familiar?

Thank You In Advance
 
What I was thinking here is that many studies such as regression channels, bollinger bands, moving averages, etc often are based on a standard deviation away from an average. When price reaches beyond 2X standard devation from value it is telling us something. I not only track 2X standard deviation, but also 1X standard deviation. A short term trader can set up trades off these points or at least confirm them with his other methodology.

My intent was to make us think that this is just another way of looking at what many folks are already used to but in a quantitative sort of way.

Hope I didn't deviate too far off topic.

DRT
 
9:00 PM on Wednesday night and we are at the 2720 key midrange level on EURUSD. Building value above here should lead to a re-test of the 2830 top area. Building value below should send us down to test the bottom. Stay alert.

Sweet dreams.

DRT
 
We continue to build value right at our midrange level of 2720(2775 EC). The spring is coiling. Looks like the data and trading today and tommorrow will shape the future direction of this pair.

I wanted to repost this chart from several days ago in the thread as a reminder that Mr. October is coming.

DRT


Quote from downrivertrader:

A generalization.....

I have several longer term studies that point to a major change in October. As I have said before, I do not trade based on these studies, but I certainly use them to help shape my thoughts. If you study this chart, you will see that it is based on the big top and the recent big bottom at the end of last year.

At the 61.8 fibo the market attempted to reverse direction and move down but was unable and consolidation has occurred for what seems like an eternity. This study has the first week of October coming in at the 100% line. These time projections are fairly good at indicating change, but unfortunately they don't tell us which way. Normally, each point reverses value. This week will be a key at forecasting the month of August so be alert.

DRT

cycles.png
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[12:52 EUR/USD: Market Ignores Backward Looking Data; Focused on Now] Boston,
September 28. The downward GDP revision is having little market impact as the
market focuses on the now and on the future. Heavy EUR/USD sales from entrenched
longs have limited EUR/USD topside all week long, dealers report, keeping USD
bears more than a bit queasy.
There is lots of talk this morning of losses in the Treasury market by another
hedge fund. In hindsight, the slide toward 4.50 yields late last week and early
this week were less about concerns of a hard landing and more about taking bond
bears to the cleaners. This prompted artificially low yields and whipped up a
fresh dose of USD bearishness. Now that the shorts are out of the Treasury
market, yields are drifting back up and the USD is following suit.
1.2660 trendline support is key support on pullbacks this morning. Central banks
have been steady buyers on dips ahead of it. EUR/USD trades at 1.2698.
 
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