IHS continues to resolve, real bear is below 200 SMA NDX 
http://www.dormantrading.com/Trader...nsity=H&type=BAR&a=W&studies=SMA(200);&size=M
http://www.dormantrading.com/Trader...nsity=H&type=BAR&a=W&studies=SMA(200);&size=M
Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done
- Thread starter deadbroke
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Hey DB.
The hedge fund is kind of teasing me now... " you have a lot of cash just tell us when you are ' comfortable ' investing again " Now I'm on the spot. Yes we got a 2% dip. Yes many of the stocks I follow went down 9% that day, is that it?????
I say No. I think the next leg down will be formulated upon the realization that QE2 will be very light if at all. The confusing part is what that does to the dollar and how that effects these heavy stocks.
The dollar has lost something crazy like 19% it's got me unnerved. In the past normal valuation corrections never bothered me it's the one's that include rapid movements in gold and the dollar that potentially scare the crap out of me.
I am looking for a sell down but if it doesn't come quick the elections will be here!
If we don't reverse today and sell off Friday, I may have to back away from this ST top call.~stoney
The hedge fund is kind of teasing me now... " you have a lot of cash just tell us when you are ' comfortable ' investing again " Now I'm on the spot. Yes we got a 2% dip. Yes many of the stocks I follow went down 9% that day, is that it?????
I say No. I think the next leg down will be formulated upon the realization that QE2 will be very light if at all. The confusing part is what that does to the dollar and how that effects these heavy stocks.
The dollar has lost something crazy like 19% it's got me unnerved. In the past normal valuation corrections never bothered me it's the one's that include rapid movements in gold and the dollar that potentially scare the crap out of me.
I am looking for a sell down but if it doesn't come quick the elections will be here!
If we don't reverse today and sell off Friday, I may have to back away from this ST top call.~stoney
I've left the trendline as-is but due to higher high I've added a better one. We'll see if this one does the trick?
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Something startling has showed up for me on the 60-min. timeframe. I'm gong to give it more thought but right away it clearly would have prevented me from making mistakes on 1H.
Its hardly an original idea given that it is based on the original Dow Theory, which is applied on the Daily timeframe.
What I have stumbled into is to use it on 60-min. but with an added twist.
Dow Theory required confirmation from the Transports, but some current experts have waived DJT in favor of S&P and Nas.
I'm going to leave MY DAILY TIMRFRAME METHOD unchanged but on 60-min., I am going to require a confirmation reversal signal from the following ....
S&P500
Nasdaq Comp.
Nasdaq 100.
DJT ????? (not sure whether to add this or not, so wll observe how they interact over months)
I'm going to try this out from here on out.
Had I had this in place, I would not have called a TOP on 60-min. thru' the entire runup from August 27, 2010.
On Daily timeframe there is no change to the CALL and NO second guessing the original CALL. That's just the way it is.
Its hardly an original idea given that it is based on the original Dow Theory, which is applied on the Daily timeframe.
What I have stumbled into is to use it on 60-min. but with an added twist.
Dow Theory required confirmation from the Transports, but some current experts have waived DJT in favor of S&P and Nas.
I'm going to leave MY DAILY TIMRFRAME METHOD unchanged but on 60-min., I am going to require a confirmation reversal signal from the following ....
S&P500
Nasdaq Comp.
Nasdaq 100.
DJT ????? (not sure whether to add this or not, so wll observe how they interact over months)
I'm going to try this out from here on out.
Had I had this in place, I would not have called a TOP on 60-min. thru' the entire runup from August 27, 2010.
On Daily timeframe there is no change to the CALL and NO second guessing the original CALL. That's just the way it is.
I like Oscar because he is entertaining - a bit like deadbroke except he makes money. Yesterday before the open Oscar was bearish whereas I was bullish intraday. More importantly Oscar was bearish on the massive long term H&S. Yet one day later he has changed his mind on this huge structure. The new kidz on the block can learn a lot from this analysis and how to "catch yourself on" trading against the trend.
The major purchases we make have to be delivered and the Transports will always lead until we get Startrek beam me up Scotty technology. So it's important to have a global view as well as a long term view and recognize when the big alarm bells are sounding in the opposite direction to what you thought was best. Fundamentals are telling us the market is not going to tank, but it's not the fundamentals we used 10 yrs back. Today it's all about manipulation. That's great - if you understand it and ride it.
Technically this is a great thread for showing you how a little knowledge is a dangerous thing and over confidence is the easiest way to blind yourself to the obvious. As I said I know 1st hand because I have walked in deadbroke's shoes a long time back. The last instruction on the video about being your own man is the most important, but you have to pay your dues and deadbroke is doing that in public. I am sure in 20 yrs from now he will have learned his lesson if he discovers the value of humility. No matter, the market is a perfect teacher
Enjoy Oscar. I prefer it when we see him deliver his views with all the enthusiasm of a floor trader on coke.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0JJb0L5_sk&feature=player_embedded#!
The major purchases we make have to be delivered and the Transports will always lead until we get Startrek beam me up Scotty technology. So it's important to have a global view as well as a long term view and recognize when the big alarm bells are sounding in the opposite direction to what you thought was best. Fundamentals are telling us the market is not going to tank, but it's not the fundamentals we used 10 yrs back. Today it's all about manipulation. That's great - if you understand it and ride it.
Technically this is a great thread for showing you how a little knowledge is a dangerous thing and over confidence is the easiest way to blind yourself to the obvious. As I said I know 1st hand because I have walked in deadbroke's shoes a long time back. The last instruction on the video about being your own man is the most important, but you have to pay your dues and deadbroke is doing that in public. I am sure in 20 yrs from now he will have learned his lesson if he discovers the value of humility. No matter, the market is a perfect teacher
Enjoy Oscar. I prefer it when we see him deliver his views with all the enthusiasm of a floor trader on coke.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S0JJb0L5_sk&feature=player_embedded#!
One more daily chart reference point for THREAD short confirmation ...
if the dashed black channel is busted, add to Short
if the pitchfork lower channel line is busted, add to Short
see the bunching of long-term m.a.s ? = volatility move coming up
If 200 m.a. busted, add to Short.
Hold until Dow = 2,500.
Then close out and buy real estate and hold for 70 years. And resume your gorging on CREDIT and living beyond your means until the same stuff happens again (in about 70 years when a Chink might be running the White House)
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if the dashed black channel is busted, add to Short
if the pitchfork lower channel line is busted, add to Short
see the bunching of long-term m.a.s ? = volatility move coming up
If 200 m.a. busted, add to Short.
Hold until Dow = 2,500.
Then close out and buy real estate and hold for 70 years. And resume your gorging on CREDIT and living beyond your means until the same stuff happens again (in about 70 years when a Chink might be running the White House)
Uploaded with ImageShack.us
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