Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

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As short as I am on this market my portfolio is hardly up as much as I would have expected it to be with the dow off 200+ points. Go figure.


Short Semis with SSG, only up a huge 2.25%.


:mad:
 
Not only will IBM earnings out Monday set the tone for Tuesday’s trade – but they could set the tone for the next 5 weeks.

At least that's what a research note from Bespoke would suggest.

As you may know IBM [IBM 137.19 -5.64 (-3.95%) ] reported after the bell - but what you might not know is that IBM's one-day post earnings direction is same as S&P’s direction over next 5 weeks 80% of the time, according to Bespoke.

In other words if we see a gain in IBM on Tuesday we should see a gain in the S&P 500 over the next 5 weeks, explains host Melissa Lee.
 
Quote from Xspurt:

Shorting a manipulated market for a mega reversal is a waste of time. Done that with Japan in 1988. Oh yes the ass had fallen everywhere else and I got the tee shirt. Dow 2 week and especially the monthly chart are just getting warmed up. Every chance of breaking 14000 imo.

In fact the monthly chart is so strong I'd rate it as a zero chance of the 9600 breaking as this is a manipulated moon shot.

This is one to go dead broke on shorting for a grand super cycle.
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You're saying after the length of this run traders are stupid for looking to pick a top here? You're AT LEAST good for 1-2 weeks of sideways movement. 1300 is by no means out of the question. Quick flip and look to reverse based on how long this takes.

My question is..... Why not. What makes this the "dumbass of the year trade?" :) Time's on your side right now. That wont change for a bit here
 
Quote from athlonmank8:

You're saying after the length of this run traders are stupid for looking to pick a top here? You're AT LEAST good for 1-2 weeks of sideways movement. 1300 is by no means out of the question. Quick flip and look to reverse based on how long this takes.

My question is..... Why not. What makes this the "dumbass of the year trade?" :) Time's on your side right now. That wont change for a bit here
More...

traders are stupid huh? Is that you or me saying that?

A top, Or a 10 year mega top? Big difference. Read the OP. You don't do a quick flip on a mega top.

Your "here" and my post on the Dow 24th close last month are a bit apart, almost a month and a 300 point move up.

Dumbass of the year, huh? Is that you or me saying that?

In fairness, I have enjoyed this thread more than the jokes thread, perhaps because it reminds me of me a long time ago :)

Re. your question: Fundamentally QE2, Christmas bonuses, weakening US$, Fed manipulation and Christmas trade. On charts I have explained my reasoning.

Nimble trading is not stupid. Calling the mega top... well let's see how this works out. So far you'd need deep pockets :)
 
Quote from Xspurt:

traders are stupid huh? Is that you or me saying that?

A top, Or a 10 year mega top? Big difference. Read the OP. You don't do a quick flip on a mega top.

Your "here" and my post on the Dow 24th close last month are a bit apart, almost a month and a 300 point move up.

Dumbass of the year, huh? Is that you or me saying that?

In fairness, I have enjoyed this thread more than the jokes thread, perhaps because it reminds me of me a long time ago :)

Re. your question: Fundamentally QE2, Christmas bonuses, weakening US$, Fed manipulation and Christmas trade. On charts I have explained my reasoning.

Nimble trading is not stupid. Calling the mega top... well let's see how this works out. So far you'd need deep pockets :)
More...

I apologize for not looking at post times. Didn't mean to frustrating you.

PMed with my chart and why I'm still cautious on the super cycle trade at the moment.
 
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