Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

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Quote from stonedinvestor:

DB! Yea that gym workout feels a little better doesn't it?

I have restarted working out as well. may I suggest an Kung Fu aspect to your workout once a week? Not the actual fighting but all the internal exercises that really helps with investing.

~stoney
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way ahead of you with the martial arts, been doing it for quite a while now


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2911817&highlight=2hr#post2911817


here's the post from July 11


Fckin hell, before the op gets everyone killed by so much figure-figure on vague bs like "think positive, spend time with loved ones, bla, bla ...........

(1) A 1-2 hour Mixed Martial Arts workout 4 times per week.

(Note 1: Are there other ways to get to Rome? Yes, but they are all VASTLY inferior. They are ..... running a brisk 10k 4/week OR Strength Training+treadmill incline/speed/interval training OR lap swimming daily OR any game like soccer etc. 4 games/week, etc., etc., )

(Note 2: The clowns you see in the gym with big biceps and triceps etc., are so ungainly in movement that they're the antithesis of "agile, deft, nimble" and almost always an MMA fella can land a minm. of 6 hits before muscle-man even raises/cocks his arm for a strike - thats how slow they are)

(Note 3: MMA gives you a 3-fer, the latter 2 being Self-defense and purging the violence from within, thereby almost always walking away or avoiding a fight UNLESS one has to engage and then finishing it in under 10 secs)
 
Quote from Lucrum:

His "occupation" answers that question.

attachment.php
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Got him! :) :D Mine says it all, yours is blank!!!!!!!!!!

Ditto for the 99.99% of posers here.
 
Quote from deadbroke:

a corollary :D :D


how would ET traders have done compared to me at the 2000 top's several month sideways move before the crash?

ET-ers: 6 ejaculations/day x 200 = 1,200

DB: 0 ejaculation/day ......... = 1
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--------------------------------



For historians ....


observe the 1-5 minute chart traders come into this thread to argue the DAILY chart timeframe. :D


now see Dow at year 2000 top :)

doesn't mean the same will happen, but I have called a top based on sound reasoning just as I would have at the 2000 top, had I been around back then.

the Dow today is hitting the 78,6% retracement level EXACTLY as it did after the crash from the Jan 2000 top. See chart.

ET-ers were likely making the same amount of noise back then.
See what happened therafter? Crash boom bang into the Oct 2002 bottom. Exit short in my estimation around April 2003.

Note how Dow offered several additions to Short before really signaling the crash - whoever was calling the top back then, was probably getting the same shit as now. :)




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Great News On Crox DB!

Sept. 28, 2010, 1:01 p.m. EDT
Crocs shares are back in fashion
As shares rebound, analysts see 40% more room to run
Explore related mistakes by DB
topics
Europe Crocs Inc Skechers USA Inc Deckers Outdoor Corp DB Wrong again
STORYQUOTESCOMMENTS SCREENER (11)
AlertEmailPrintShare By Matt Andrejczak, MarketWatch


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crocs, crushed by a steep drop in demand for its colorful clogs, is treading more comfortably these days.

Two years ago, Crocs Inc. and its stock looked like a fashion fad on the brink of extinction. It had been a swift fall for a company whose initial public offering raised $223 million back in February 2006 as the distinctive footwear became ubiquitous.

Crocs’ stock soared to an all-time high of $75.21 on Oct. 31, 2007. Fifty-four weeks later, it hit an all-time low of 79 cents a share.

Yet Crocs (CROX 12.69, -0.03, -0.23%) is still here, again enriching investors who dare to bet on a company with a self-described “ugly shoe.”

After having plumbed penny-stock territory, Crocs shares are back in fashion, handily outperforming rivals Skechers USA (SKX 22.60, -0.11, -0.48%) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK 49.10, +0.08, +0.16%) , maker of Teva sandals and Ugg boots.

Crocs shares recently traded at $12.72 and have increased twelvefold since January 2009, propelled by a yearlong restructuring that cut inventories by 60%, shuttered seven Denver warehouses and reduced reliance on sales from its original clogs.

Classic clog-style models from Crocs retail for about $30.
The overhaul is working.

Profit was $38 million for the six-month period that ended June 30, following a 2009 loss of $42 million. Sales rose 18% to $395 million. And gross margin climbed to 57.8% of sales, putting that metric back near 2007 levels, when sales boomed.

From July 1 through August, U.S. sales at stores open one year — or, same-store sales — were up 12%, according to Russ Hammer, the company’s chief financial officer.

Analysts have said the stock could run up another 40% from present levels based on the company’s growth prospects. In the past week, two of the four analysts who cover Crocs raised their 12-month target prices to $18 a share, according to FactSet Research.

The average estimate is for Crocs to earn 68 cents a share this year and 85 cents a share in 2011, when annual sales are forecast to reach a record of $851 million. Sales swelled to $847 million in 2007, and the company scrambled to meet demand.

A year later, the economy tanked, and retailers slashed orders. The company suddenly faced a massive overhang of unsold shoes.

Continued from page 1Page 1Page 2

The rebound at Crocs contrasts with another company panned as a fad: Heelys (HLYS 2.39, 0.00, -0.15%) . The maker of sneakers with built-in wheels went public in December 2006, but its shares have languished below $5 for two years. The stock once traded around $40.

CROX 12.70, -0.02, -0.16%

SKX 22.60, -0.11, -0.48%

DECK 49.08, +0.06, +0.12%

Crocs vs. Skechers vs. Decker
300%200%100%0%-100%

Crocs shares rise twelvefold as turnaround gains traction.
A broader product line is helping Crocs, which seeks to extend demand for its footwear beyond spring and summer, with new shoes for winter use.

“Through the building of new products on a lower manufacturing footprint and increased points of distribution globally, Crocs is poised to win,” Wall Street Strategies analyst Brian Sozzi said Tuesday in a research note. He added that “consumers have wised up to the more diversified nature of Crocs, and are willing to pay higher prices to get foot comfort.”

Sales of new 2010 shoe models — such as sneakers for kids and women’s flats — accounted for 31% of company sales in the first half of this year.

The new models are boosting prices and helping margins. The average sales price for its 250 items is $17.76, up from $15.80 a year ago. The company sells everything from socks to flip-flops to men’s work shoes.

Unlike years past, retailers “are much more comfortable taking Crocs inventory,” said Bill McVail, who runs the Turner Small Cap Growth Fund, which owns Crocs shares.

Crocs has bolstered its back-to-school lineup and set up local-language Internet sites for France, Germany and Italy. Web sales rose 16% for the six months ended June 30. Crocs rings up 60% of its sales in Asia, South America, Europe and Canada.

Also this year, Crocs opened 53 company-owned retail stores as it closes kiosks in malls and highly trafficked areas. Stores give the company a chance to stock more products than a few kiosk items.

Yet not everyone is sold on the turnaround.

Crocs shares sold short — a gauge of investor skepticism — are creeping higher. While nowhere close to 2008’s sky-high levels, short interest represents 14% of Crocs common shares outstanding. That’s up from 10% in May.

Moving forward, investors will want to pay close attention to the average number of days it takes Crocs to collect money after it makes a sale, an accounting metric followed by mindful investors as “days sales outstanding.”

This ratio has been rising, but it’s far from clear whether Crocs is sitting on another inventory pileup. The next six months should give investors a good idea as Crocs aims to prove it’s not a mere fad — again.

Matt Andrejczak is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
 
u are the most read thread in elitetrader.

Quote from deadbroke:

--------------------------------



For historians ....


observe the 1-5 minute chart traders come into this thread to argue the DAILY chart timeframe. :D


now see Dow at year 2000 top :)

doesn't mean the same will happen, but I have called a top based on sound reasoning just as I would have at the 2000 top, had I been around back then.

the Dow today is hitting the 78,6% retracement level EXACTLY as it did after the crash from the Jan 2000 top. See chart.

ET-ers were likely making the same amount of noise back then.
See what happened therafter? Crash boom bang into the Oct 2002 bottom. Exit short in my estimation around April 2003.

Note how Dow offered several additions to Short before really signaling the crash - whoever was calling the top back then, was probably getting the same shit as now. :)




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Quote from Lights:

u are the most read thread in elitetrader.
More...




Lights, that can be a curse at ET. :) :D

I was hoping that EVERYBODY would just put me on ignore so I could work my threads in peace and quiet.

Even if I am wrong-er than wrong in my CALLS it is still MY internship and I'll learn on my own style which in life has never failed me, ever. Granted this is the hardest thing I've ever done, still the odds are vastly in my favor to be hugely successful.
 
Dow Jones is almost at the 78.6% retracement level. Yes, you bet I am expecting my reversal.

Dow Jones THREAD Short stance reiterated firmly. :)

As said earlier a few posts back, I think BEAR is doing exactly like he did at the 2007 top, which is that it has become once again ALL ONE MARKET ...

$ versus the rest of the instruments aka world.

You name it, Gold, euro, oil, other commods, indexes, the works, they be all on one side going in unison.

When it stops, the $ will hammer them all just like he did back in 2008.
 
I'm about to complete one year at ET. Back in baron's thread I had asked for help - see here .... from page 4 to page 6 of 6.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=168825&highlight=Sir

I have a very stong feeling that some excellent traders are going to start showing up at ET. I asked for just ONE, but I won't complain if they show up in droves. :) :) :)

I have read just about everything at ET. Before I take some drastic and swift action against the stupid people, I'd like to put things in perspective ......

I like baron, the mods, the structural setup of ET and the 2 new ET sponsors, bone and Michael Corvel. I believe we now have something to build on. I'm very happy about this.

I'm not going to tolerate stupidity any more. I've got the chain and the commode ready. As soon as a turd shows up, I pull and the idiot is gone.

Who are these idiots and how many are there? I think there are about 200-500 active posters. Of these about 75% are oldtimers, most totally useless and worthless to themselves or anybody else.

I've started a thread and it lists all the idiots that I've pulled the chain on already as of today. More will be added as I come across them. As of today I don't read any more of their posts. They have no recourse. The action is permanent.

Technicians know that patterns repeat - the same old patterns repeat - ditto for stupidity.


http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=207489


Back to work now
 
Quote from stonedinvestor:

Great News On Crox DB!

Sept. 28, 2010, 1:01 p.m. EDT
Crocs shares are back in fashion
As shares rebound, analysts see 40% more room to run
Explore related mistakes by DB
topics
Europe Crocs Inc Skechers USA Inc Deckers Outdoor Corp DB Wrong again
STORYQUOTESCOMMENTS SCREENER (11)
AlertEmailPrintShare By Matt Andrejczak, MarketWatch


SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Crocs, crushed by a steep drop in demand for its colorful clogs, is treading more comfortably these days.

Two years ago, Crocs Inc. and its stock looked like a fashion fad on the brink of extinction. It had been a swift fall for a company whose initial public offering raised $223 million back in February 2006 as the distinctive footwear became ubiquitous.

Crocs’ stock soared to an all-time high of $75.21 on Oct. 31, 2007. Fifty-four weeks later, it hit an all-time low of 79 cents a share.

Yet Crocs (CROX 12.69, -0.03, -0.23%) is still here, again enriching investors who dare to bet on a company with a self-described “ugly shoe.”

After having plumbed penny-stock territory, Crocs shares are back in fashion, handily outperforming rivals Skechers USA (SKX 22.60, -0.11, -0.48%) and Deckers Outdoor (DECK 49.10, +0.08, +0.16%) , maker of Teva sandals and Ugg boots.

Crocs shares recently traded at $12.72 and have increased twelvefold since January 2009, propelled by a yearlong restructuring that cut inventories by 60%, shuttered seven Denver warehouses and reduced reliance on sales from its original clogs.

Classic clog-style models from Crocs retail for about $30.
The overhaul is working.

Profit was $38 million for the six-month period that ended June 30, following a 2009 loss of $42 million. Sales rose 18% to $395 million. And gross margin climbed to 57.8% of sales, putting that metric back near 2007 levels, when sales boomed.

From July 1 through August, U.S. sales at stores open one year — or, same-store sales — were up 12%, according to Russ Hammer, the company’s chief financial officer.

Analysts have said the stock could run up another 40% from present levels based on the company’s growth prospects. In the past week, two of the four analysts who cover Crocs raised their 12-month target prices to $18 a share, according to FactSet Research.

The average estimate is for Crocs to earn 68 cents a share this year and 85 cents a share in 2011, when annual sales are forecast to reach a record of $851 million. Sales swelled to $847 million in 2007, and the company scrambled to meet demand.

A year later, the economy tanked, and retailers slashed orders. The company suddenly faced a massive overhang of unsold shoes.

Continued from page 1Page 1Page 2

The rebound at Crocs contrasts with another company panned as a fad: Heelys (HLYS 2.39, 0.00, -0.15%) . The maker of sneakers with built-in wheels went public in December 2006, but its shares have languished below $5 for two years. The stock once traded around $40.

CROX 12.70, -0.02, -0.16%

SKX 22.60, -0.11, -0.48%

DECK 49.08, +0.06, +0.12%

Crocs vs. Skechers vs. Decker
300%200%100%0%-100%

Crocs shares rise twelvefold as turnaround gains traction.
A broader product line is helping Crocs, which seeks to extend demand for its footwear beyond spring and summer, with new shoes for winter use.

“Through the building of new products on a lower manufacturing footprint and increased points of distribution globally, Crocs is poised to win,” Wall Street Strategies analyst Brian Sozzi said Tuesday in a research note. He added that “consumers have wised up to the more diversified nature of Crocs, and are willing to pay higher prices to get foot comfort.”

Sales of new 2010 shoe models — such as sneakers for kids and women’s flats — accounted for 31% of company sales in the first half of this year.

The new models are boosting prices and helping margins. The average sales price for its 250 items is $17.76, up from $15.80 a year ago. The company sells everything from socks to flip-flops to men’s work shoes.

Unlike years past, retailers “are much more comfortable taking Crocs inventory,” said Bill McVail, who runs the Turner Small Cap Growth Fund, which owns Crocs shares.

Crocs has bolstered its back-to-school lineup and set up local-language Internet sites for France, Germany and Italy. Web sales rose 16% for the six months ended June 30. Crocs rings up 60% of its sales in Asia, South America, Europe and Canada.

Also this year, Crocs opened 53 company-owned retail stores as it closes kiosks in malls and highly trafficked areas. Stores give the company a chance to stock more products than a few kiosk items.

Yet not everyone is sold on the turnaround.

Crocs shares sold short — a gauge of investor skepticism — are creeping higher. While nowhere close to 2008’s sky-high levels, short interest represents 14% of Crocs common shares outstanding. That’s up from 10% in May.

Moving forward, investors will want to pay close attention to the average number of days it takes Crocs to collect money after it makes a sale, an accounting metric followed by mindful investors as “days sales outstanding.”

This ratio has been rising, but it’s far from clear whether Crocs is sitting on another inventory pileup. The next six months should give investors a good idea as Crocs aims to prove it’s not a mere fad — again.

Matt Andrejczak is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
More...



Hi Stoney,

I saw that report too - at Marketwatch.com - I hope it works out for you but as before pointing out ....

trendlines are broken, CROX retesting trendline on low, low volume. If the recent low is taken out, bail asap.

be careful amigo. :)





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