Dow TOP call - 10yr top formation done

[deadbroke]

Quote from Nine_Ender:

Time to bring up your original ideas. You presented two margin of errors, the largest of which was Dow 10,654. We have now blown through this level and supposably your premise as well. But wait, you can just keep resetting to higher limits ignoring the fact that every time you are wrong your shorts just lost another boatload of money !!!

Ok so now I see you've picked 78.6%. Strange how this was not mentioned as your "outer margin of error" orginally. Kind of makes one think you're just making this all up as you go along lol.

One thing that could occur is the previous areas of resistance could become the new areas of support in a bull market. So the 10450 or 10650 levels could become the higher lows on the way up.

You just filed a big complaint in the Feedback forum (and got buggered by Baron ) - I'd fck you too, but instead I'll correct your stupidity of not reading the thread before accusing ........



August 12, 2010 post right here in this thread said it all in explanation quite clearly - including the 78.6% level ....

reproduced here .....






08-12-10 03:58 PM



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from MarketMasher:

Nice. But I think your margin of error (3rd post, DOW 10654) was exceeded a while ago triggering your stop.

Anyway, nice try.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------





Not so. The STOP for the position is above the April 26 top. Very clearly stated on page 1.

The margin of error post just shows my comfort zone which is the normal area for a wave 2 retracement, i.e. 38.2% - 61.8%. .... once the dow gets above the 61.8% retracement towards the 78.6% level, my level of stress increases along with the chances of failure. The Dow in this case did get slightly above the 61.8% level on high momentum. Yes, that did bother me. But he u-turned nicely.

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from deadbroke:







08-12-10 03:58 PM



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Quote from MarketMasher:

Nice. But I think your margin of error (3rd post, DOW 10654) was exceeded a while ago triggering your stop.

Anyway, nice try.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Not so. The STOP for the position is above the April 26 top. Very clearly stated on page 1.

The margin of error post just shows my comfort zone which is the normal area for a wave 2 retracement, i.e. 38.2% - 61.8%. .... once the dow gets above the 61.8% retracement towards the 78.6% level, my level of stress increases along with the chances of failure. The Dow in this case did get slightly above the 61.8% level on high momentum. Yes, that did bother me. But he u-turned nicely.

-----------------------------------------


extending the explanation in detail about the concept that was laid out on August 12, 2010 in the quote above ....

refer to the Dow Jones daily chart ..........

You see, I consider the Oct 2007 top to be THE top of the decade, 2007-2017. So we are in a massive BEARmarket of PRIMARY magnitude.

Leg #1 down completed March 2009 and since then we completed Leg #2 up on April 26, 2010. Clear so far?

So the Flash Crash aka Fat finger mini-leg down from april 26 top is the start of a new leg down, aka Leg #3. This is expected to be a very long Leg as the 3rd wave in a sequence is usually the extended = longest wave.

One characteristic within the 3rd wave, Leg #3 is that rally retracements usually go to just 38.2% - 50% and reverse - sometimes as now in the early stage of Leg #3 it could go to 61.8% and reverse - this latter level is in line with the huge topping pattern the thread speaks about. But rarely do they go all the way to 78.6%.

This is the the meaning of MY COMFORT ZONE - anything above a 61.8% retracement is increasing my stress level and the chances of my CALL being wrong.

In August as per the quote we got to 61.8% and then reversed from just a bit above it. This time we have hit 78.6%. I'm already in the realm of my CALL going wrong and if we go up higher it will get progressively worse and then after 88.3%, another Fib level, I'm screwed. Note that all the while my STOP, which is above the April 26 top, remains intact.

At the present moment, given that Dow has rallied to 78.6%, my odds of success have already diminished. But I continue to hold my position ...... as darkness gets to the point of just before dawn???

 

[deadbroke]

Quote from Redneck:

No need to worry whenever it finally pulls back/ reverses it’ll be - See I called it…. I told ya….


Btw last I check a consolidation / range – is a continuation pattern, not a reversal patter – most of the time (same as with a H&S pattern – but then I don’t trade patterns)


The truth is I have no clue which way it’s headed – and neither does anyone else

RN

You are another thick, lazy asshole - can't you or won't you read first before you come in and talk shit?


Read your 2nd para about the consolidation being a continuation and go argue with Dow Jones at the 2000 top. After the drop and consolidation, what did Dow Jones do in that uptrend? You say it should have continued north, right? Well, fck you, it crashed = went south.

Now go study up on WHY?

The chart that explains it all is posted a few posts up.

One fckin retard after another and they call this place ELITE!!!!

 

[JSSPMK]

I maintain my stance that only when NDX drops below its Weekly 200 SMA markets will crash, very likely to crash since we deal with probabilities & not facts. You questioned correlation between NDX & SPX, common sense matey, lots of higher risk capital tied up in NDX, when it fails to hold that average, then redemptions/liquidations will accept all market bids, until then it's a forecast in the face of higher stocks especially if Fed continues to trash USD.

http://www.prematureejaculationcure.co.uk/

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from deadbroke:

Its both...

How convenient.

 

[Redneck]

No worries DB – you’ll be proven right sooner or later – revel in it when you are... Because calls like this are very short lived anyway - and not the way of a trader either.


And fwiw I admit bustin on ya was like shooting fish in a barrel – my bad



May be a lesson for you in this – or not

RN

Quote from deadbroke:

You are another thick, lazy asshole - can't you or won't you read first before you come in and talk shit?


Read your 2nd para about the consolidation being a continuation and go argue with Dow Jones at the 2000 top. After the drop and consolidation, what did Dow Jones do in that uptrend? You say it should have continued north, right? Well, fck you, it crashed = went south.

Now go study up on WHY?

The chart that explains it all is posted a few posts up.

One fckin retard after another and they call this place ELITE!!!!

 

[Xspurt]

Shorting a manipulated market for a mega reversal is a waste of time. Done that with Japan in 1988. Oh yes the ass had fallen everywhere else and I got the tee shirt. Dow 2 week and especially the monthly chart are just getting warmed up. Every chance of breaking 14000 imo.

In fact the monthly chart is so strong I'd rate it as a zero chance of the 9600 breaking as this is a manipulated moon shot.

This is one to go dead broke on shorting for a grand super cycle.

 

[Optional]

Quote from deadbroke:

The 78.6% level that I'm expecting the reversal at (or before) is at

10,943 (Yahoo Fin.) OR 10,900 (Alpari)

HaHa. Thread fail.
Yahoo finance? Pfffffffft.
When we break your 2 silly levels what will be your NEXT NEXT NEXT reversal area?

And of course, what are your actual positions in your account, or are you just paper trading?

 

[stonedinvestor]

Hey DB. I knew you were steaming over that " Deadbeat " comment and I already apologized. That's not fair! I pulled a Freudian slip and when I went back to change it the system wouldn't let me back into my own post! Something about a half hour.

Lets roll things back a bit. Light this idea- Aside from the fact that you have been entirely wrong on the market's direction-- would you at least admit THAT I HAVE BEEN 100% CORRECT ON THE MARKET'S DIRECTION? You are not the only one that can trawl through old stuff and link comments you know very well I've been helping you along the way here and advising you WHY THE MARKET WILL MOVE.

Would you at least admit my fundamental work on the market has proved more accurate than your TA? Be fair... it's important to tell the truth.

Now I will tell you it's not your fault DB. High Frequency trading and ETF's have hurt the TA game to a great degree. There is more ' noise ' than ever buried in the statistics and an OBV crossover and vol surge is apt to be a one day ETF driven affair.

I used to think stocks always told you what was happening. I no longer do. I still use a lot of TA in my approach and all my stock ideas are screened that way first-- but I rely on a secret blend of timing and momentum, deep value and run away dreams. 25 years experience gives one the ability to have ' instinct '- to just know when to sell a stock. I am very good at that- selling on a up tick and in predicting the over all market (as you have seen) My weaknesses? Yea I fall in love with ideas. Guilty. Especially biotech so be forewarned. There is an aspect of saving the world that can overcome investing and I have let my personal views on the environment KILL ME IN THE MARKET-- So if you can stay mercenary like-- it's best but folks...

Don't just look for a system to play. A short cut. Do the homework and just stair at the symbols going by for a few hours. Ask yourself if that's all it is, symbols and short term gains and losses or if their STILL is hope for investors in this stock market.~ stoney

 

[Lucrum]

Quote from Optional:

...And of course, what are your actual positions in your account, or are you just paper trading?

His "occupation" answers that question.