Quote from stonedinvestor:
Yea that be the plan.
Hi DB.
Yes I closed this thread a while's back after you made a complete fool of yourself and then supposedly went on vacation to an exotic location.
You have made many additional short entries since the thread's inception at DOW 10,100 all the way up to here!
If you want me to reopen this thread I just might if you get your head screwed on straight. You don't have to talk to a preacher to know that the momentum for this move is waning. We have been holding you by the hand to get you through this period DB so you shouldn't be surprised. Your use of sentiment readings is entirely correct today! You interpreted these same readings at 10,100 wrong so it's always wise to be careful.
Due to high frequency traders the market is not as straight forward to chart as it has been in the past. Sentiment is important and always go against the HERD. Just this past AUGUST (1 month ago) the readings were 50% bears and only 21% bulls. As I told you then this extreme low reading of bulls was the highest since the March bottom. You were firmly in the MAJORITY then in the bear camp and I was screaming at you.
Just one month later and look at the difference! Bulls are now 51% and Bears are down to 24%...
and just not very much has changed. We priced in a double dip and took it out but really nor much has changed. That's a huge swing, the biggest I can remember so it's got my attention and thus has me thinking about taking some profits and waiting things out.
The funny thing is look at bonds. 93% of advisers are bearish! And everyone is calling Bonds a bubble so of course we must come to terms with the fact that it is not. If bonds go up it's bad for stocks. If bonds are not a bubble then what of gold? Does Gold and the market of stocks ever march happily up together?
As a trigger to the upside or downside from here, I'd have my eye on the flash crash trading report due any day. Without that we may be heading into a retrenching period. The S&P 500 broke out! But was not confirmed by the DOW I don't think, sentiment is too bullish for where we are. New investors might have to be shook out soon.
Never fear though DB, the Hedgies got to make their year end money or they are going to go out of business! A nice year end rally should come after the elections. Goldman Sachs has looked at this year end period over the last 10 years and come up with a tech heavy rally of 30%! the S&P should be up 15%! On average these rallies start Aug 23 and end Dec 19 and last 118 days. So we'll have to do some math and see how much of that 30% we already have in the book, then we give back off a bit and then finish the pattern. My work indicates we have achieved 10% of this 30% tech move... so 20% UPSIDE awaits!! 10% for the S&P!!
Along the way we hope to make money every day while you sit and post about your mythical short position.~stoney
Quote from stonedinvestor:
Yea that be the plan.
Hi DB.
Yes I closed this thread a while's back after you made a complete fool of yourself and then supposedly went on vacation to an exotic location.
You have made many additional short entries since the thread's inception at DOW 10,100 all the way up to here!
If you want me to reopen this thread I just might if you get your head screwed on straight. You don't have to talk to a preacher to know that the momentum for this move is waning. We have been holding you by the hand to get you through this period DB so you shouldn't be surprised. Your use of sentiment readings is entirely correct today! You interpreted these same readings at 10,100 wrong so it's always wise to be careful.
Due to high frequency traders the market is not as straight forward to chart as it has been in the past. Sentiment is important and always go against the HERD. Just this past AUGUST (1 month ago) the readings were 50% bears and only 21% bulls. As I told you then this extreme low reading of bulls was the highest since the March bottom. You were firmly in the MAJORITY then in the bear camp and I was screaming at you.
Just one month later and look at the difference! Bulls are now 51% and Bears are down to 24%...
and just not very much has changed. We priced in a double dip and took it out but really nor much has changed. That's a huge swing, the biggest I can remember so it's got my attention and thus has me thinking about taking some profits and waiting things out.
The funny thing is look at bonds. 93% of advisers are bearish! And everyone is calling Bonds a bubble so of course we must come to terms with the fact that it is not. If bonds go up it's bad for stocks. If bonds are not a bubble then what of gold? Does Gold and the market of stocks ever march happily up together?
As a trigger to the upside or downside from here, I'd have my eye on the flash crash trading report due any day. Without that we may be heading into a retrenching period. The S&P 500 broke out! But was not confirmed by the DOW I don't think, sentiment is too bullish for where we are. New investors might have to be shook out soon.
Never fear though DB, the Hedgies got to make their year end money or they are going to go out of business! A nice year end rally should come after the elections. Goldman Sachs has looked at this year end period over the last 10 years and come up with a tech heavy rally of 30%! the S&P should be up 15%! On average these rallies start Aug 23 and end Dec 19 and last 118 days. So we'll have to do some math and see how much of that 30% we already have in the book, then we give back off a bit and then finish the pattern. My work indicates we have achieved 10% of this 30% tech move... so 20% UPSIDE awaits!! 10% for the S&P!!
Along the way we hope to make money every day while you sit and post about your mythical short position.~stoney
But cutting to the chase, MY CALL is 100% still correct in that the April 26 top is holding. Markets go sideways from time to time. So your gripes about sideways stuff is mostly vaginal effluent and effluvium. 
Quote from deadbroke:
for Stoney .....
Re: according to you and everyone else here, a sideways market proves I'm wrong.
In reality .....
see historic Dow Jones January 2000 top. Arrow at left shows my short entry. Other arrows show ALLLLLLL the instances of ET noise yakety-yak like a bunch of sissies.
Fact is sideways for months up and down and up and down and then C R A S H all the way into 2002 low.
And all the while the Jan 2000 top held.
Want to guess what the pussies did after the crash got underway?
They just slunk away slyly.
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Quote from deadbroke:
-----------------------------
same 60-min. chart, updated. The trendline is broken. As you can see, the 161.8% guesstimate worked. I've added the blue trendline because it was there before in previous charts I posted a few days ago. This might be breaking now.
If this 2nd attempt fails too, I'll go for a 3rd.
But the DAILY chart requires no thought-ing at all. That's a clearcut shortie since april 27, 2010
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