doom

Your chart illuminates how scary the NQ (and equities in general) are getting at this point. Because a 50% drop 10 years ago will not be as bloody as a 50% drop today. There will be lives lost on this next major bear-drop, and it IS coming between now and 2024 in my estimation. (This depends on who wins the election.)
Totally agree. These percentages are funny. Look at it like this as well. The 55% drop in 2007 was 1200 points. I mean what the fuck is that? Nothing! In 2018, just the 24% drop was 1900 points. From this height, even a 10% drop will be pretty significant in terms of a dollar value. 10% of 9000 is 900 points, which is not that far away from the 1200 points drop in 2007.
 
Ok, let's make this more scientific. How much does the market have to decline before you consider yourself wrong? For example, at the end of 2018, we had a 24% decline for the NQ. Back in 2008 it was about 55%, and in 2000, it was a whopping 84% until the low hit in 2002.

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Since you are suggesting people mortgage their house, do you think they should hold through a 20% draw down? Even a 50% drawdown? Obviously if its a leveraged investment even a 10% drawdown can be very painful.

I quite like the videos of this George Gammon guy and he is sharing important info in my opinion. He is even the first to point out that gold for him is only insurance and hardly a "get rich quick" scheme, so he isn't your typical doom and gloom gold bug type of guy.

Now it is true that the repo madness seems to have subsided going into 2020 (haven't watched the linked video yet), but it doesn't take a genius to understand that this entire market rally is fueled by FED liquidity. When that stops, the party stops. If you watch enough of his videos, you also learn that perhaps the FED won't be able to control things like interest rates much longer, and these are all important things to be aware of.

Your only premise of the market forever going higher can only work in one type of environment that the FED may not be able to keep up for much longer. So your prediction really needs some metrics, and hence why I ask.

Lastly, on my chart I outline via red arrows the first exuberant run-up to the 2000 high, and wouldn't you say that it looks pretty damn steep at the current level? So how much of a pull back are you saying is acceptable?

by the way - I am never wrong, because I know how my boys operate.

it's a completely different feeling when you get on the same page with the boys.

I mean completely different.

you know what I am talking about.... like if you back test and find profit factor 1.75 and you put it on live, there is always that doubt in the gut right? what if you are wrong, right?

no.... with the way I do Situational Analysis (R), everything is CRYSTAL CLEAR.... I am never wrong.
 
legit questions...

but the difference maker is the market reading skills.... I have personally guaranteed a few trades and have never failed..

I can get scientific but I have explained everything already.

this is once in a life time opportunity to mortgage the house... today!
I agree with you that we are probably going higher, as part of the melt-up/irrational exuberance phase, but I hope you are around to tell us when to sell.

Are you by any chance personally guaranteeing this call through AIG? How will I be able to collect my insurance payout when necessary? :D:p
 
I agree with you that we are probably going higher, as part of the melt-up/irrational exuberance phase, but I hope you are around to tell us when to sell.

Are you by any chance personally guaranteeing this call through AIG? How will I be able to collect my insurance payout when necessary? :D:p

like my previous personal guarantees, backed by the full faith and street credit on ET... and I have never failed.... ask @Overnight, I have never failed him.

yes I will be around to tell when to sell..... you can then cancel the mortgage with lots of free money in your pocket.

free money!
 
unfortunately this is the internet, and any true wisdom quickly get overwhelmed by the doubters, which is normal.

so... most people don't deserve to be rich any way. lol.


well.
We don't listen to news.
News are unreliable, inaccurate, slow, misleading, skewed, opinionated and it contaminate our minds.


Day traders focus on charts and we trade based on what the chart says, not what
the news say.

We read news more for entertainment purpose.
 
When the market is at record high, you will start to see thousands of reports
saying the world is going to end soon.

It happened many times over the past few decades.
And it will continue to happen again and again like clockwork.

__________________

of course... but notice my key point is the sheep crowd reaction to these doom vids.
 
a day like this, I woke up with $$$$$, and after playing video games and tennis for the whole day, I check again another whole bunch of $$$$$.... omg.

yes I will tell you when to sell.... actually my tea leaves indicators already flashing some warning, we'll see this thursday AAII and perhaps next week I will have a better idea.

long term trend no difference though... AAPL still going to $1000.

at the current condition, dips will be 5-10% ish no more, actually even 10% is unlikely... but we'll see... if you mortgage your house I will personally guarantee your house is safe.
 
a day like this, I woke up with $$$$$, and after playing video games and tennis for the whole day, I check again another whole bunch of $$$$$....

You don't need to mortgage your house.

Some residential area I know in the city went up in value almost a million dollar just in last couple months. Everyone I know is trying to buy real estate to preserve the money value. I guess it has to do with the stock market activities and Fed cutting interest rate and the liquidity injection of almost $3.5 trillions into repo market and the balance sheet.

At this rate even the tech people living around here will be no longer afford to buy a house anymore in a year or two. Some of them make $500,000 a year.

Even my relatives are forced to buy a house in NJ. They make $200,000 a year.

I guess the people with no hard asset will suffer the most. If Fed continue like this, probably there will be a revolution coming soon.
 
Totally agree. These percentages are funny. Look at it like this as well. The 55% drop in 2007 was 1200 points. I mean what the fuck is that? Nothing! In 2018, just the 24% drop was 1900 points. From this height, even a 10% drop will be pretty significant in terms of a dollar value. 10% of 9000 is 900 points, which is not that far away from the 1200 points drop in 2007.

This is true but the majority of the public are not in leveraged instruments so the points don't count, its all about %. If you are in SPY a 50% drop is a 50% drop in your account, no matter if SPY is at 150 or at 330.
 
like my previous personal guarantees, backed by the full faith and street credit on ET... and I have never failed.... ask @Overnight, I have never failed him.

yes I will be around to tell when to sell..... you can then cancel the mortgage with lots of free money in your pocket.

free money!
What if I ask des instead. :p

Just kidding.
 
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