Just curious about getting short on the opening.....all the fills our guys got were on the long side.
Don
Don's openings Part 4
- Thread starter Don Bright
- Start date
Just curious about getting short on the opening.....all the fills our guys got were on the long side.
Don
don, thanks for starting this thread, it has been real helpful. question though, i just started doing opening only trades. i was wondering why everyone here tends to take a .8% or 1% envelope around the fair value calculation that you come up with and not tailor the envelope to the specific stocks. such as, taking the correlation of the particular stock to the s&p 500 and coming up with an envelope based on the standard deviation. wondering if you guys went down this road and it wasn't as successful. any comments would be appreciated.
Don,
I had one short, CL - made .06 on it. 5 longs and got hammer on one. Held a couple for an hour plus and turned big losses into winners. I should of sold fast on the way down and just got lucky.
I made .21 cents on WMT and held it for 2 hours. Anyone with any feedback on how they would have handled WMT i would appreciate to here from you.
Thanks for the posts Don. To Tony, i enjoy reading your posts alot, good luck to you.
Eric
Got CL short... scratched it at 55.00
Good thing too, it shot to the moon later.
I haven't had much going on in opening orders this week. Must be the weather.
Good thing too, it shot to the moon later.
I haven't had much going on in opening orders this week. Must be the weather.
I do this and take it even further - take a look at HI and COF recently - HI's beta on the way down is more then COF's, and HI's beta on the way up is less then COF's (both in relation to the spoos.)
Guess wich way I trade COF and HI MOO?
I doubt that Don does this, but I have found that I need to do this or I get creamed.
nitro
Many take the extra steps of applying betas, sectors, and yes, even historic volatility for individual stocks. We have found that since we only want stocks that are "outside" the expected pricing, that a rough calculation works pretty well. We use a good starting point, keeping it simple. Good ideas though, let me know how well you do with some more detailed calculations!!
Don
I do this on several of my stocks, based on my experience with them. Stocks with high win rates or ones that don't give many fills, I tighten the envelope on. I also customize the share size based on price and how volatile they are on the open and how likely they are to gap or trend smoothly. I also calculate my own 100 day beta's. All this plus keeping detailed records helps with the overall results.
There was news on WMT, as well as many other retailers, so I took them all off my list today. I personally don't trade stocks in the news for openings. They can work out fine, but I've found that when they go against you, the damage can be significant. Better to watch the stock after it's opened and see if it looks like it's going to fill the gap and then get in, like CI yesterday.
Pretty predictable opening. Up, rattle around, little sell off. Net $460 (23 cents)....again, "coulda, shoulda, been more"....
Don
Don