Dollar decline nearing an end?

I've been saying now for several weeks that the behavior in the Euro is rather stupid. But markets love playing stupid, so I just shrug and play a different pair.
 
Have no choice, mate :) I know people out there say "just play the trend!" But I have trouble playing pairs if I don't believe in the logic of the move. And for that, I suppose I'll lose out from time to time.
 
Hi!

Agree! It's better to lose out, than to not have conviction is your position.

The Dollar failed to closed that gap today and moved lower. Maybe we need to restest 86 again. Was a good setup until the G-7 meeting scared the bulls. Japan will be interesting tonight?
 
Both the dollar index and USDJPY have broken through support. So I think the dollar index will go to 86 and the USDJPY will go below 113.36. However, before it does that, the USDJPY may have a bounce to about 116. The EURUSD is likely to meander around this level due to the weakness in both USDJPY and EURJPY.

In EW terms, I think wave 2 in USDJPY is not yet over and we are in wave c down. If wave c is equal to wave a, the target is 111.

Just my opinion, which is worth very little :)
 
Hi Hoang,

Looks like your right. All these currencies are retesting recent levels. You probably know more about currency pairs than I do, for sure. Actually most markets seem to be going against their trends today. TY G-7
 
Quote from gharghur2:

The Dollar failed to closed that gap today and moved lower. Maybe we need to restest 86 again. Was a good setup until the G-7 meeting scared the bulls. Japan will be interesting tonight?
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Tony,
Recognizing the confusion created by the G-7 statements as early as you did was the key to limiting losses. Thinking that their effect would dissipate quickly as I thought was an oversimplification because even if the statements didn't contain any new recommendation, they still have the potential of triggering policy changes shortly after over an undefined horizon.
 
I just would like to point out that the fundamental issues that are calling for a lower dollar are not all that different than the fundamental issues call for the same exact thing back in December 2004 when the Euro hit 1.36 and change.

I remember forecasts of 1.50 and the like, amidst dollar bears chanting that the USD had no choice but to go lower.
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Except for the "minor" fact that the Fed started increasing interest rates relentlessly at the beginning of 2005?

In that sense the fundamentals can be quite different as the Fed was not close to an extremely low level. So unless you see Fed funds going to 7%....
 
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