Dollar decline nearing an end?

[gharghur2]

Quote from steveosborne:

Tony,
Recognizing the confusion created by the G-7 statements as early as you did was the key to limiting losses. Thinking that their effect would dissipate quickly as I thought was an oversimplification because even if the statements didn't contain any new recommendation, they still have the potential of triggering policy changes shortly after over an undefined horizon.

Steve,
Was not sure how serious the G-7 was, but the traders knew: thus, the gap down and the failure to fill it.
Must be getting close to a low, but which low? A short term rally and retest wave two is also possible now. Dollar came down quick, and BB is not guaranteeing rate increases anymore.
Will take a good look this w/e.

 

[gharghur2]

Quote from DrChaos:

Except for the "minor" fact that the Fed started increasing interest rates relentlessly at the beginning of 2005?

In that sense the fundamentals can be quite different as the Fed was not close to an extremely low level. So unless you see Fed funds going to 7%....

Bernanke basically stated short term rates will no longer keep rising at regular intervals. Seems to me, that will allow the Dollar to fall further than originally expected. And China's response to the G-7 threats of letting the emerging currencies rise versus the dollar was answered: first rate increase in 18 months. Concerted effort?

 

[myminitrading]

Weekly inverse Head & Shoulder pattern in Dollar index

 

[gharghur2]

Nice head and shoulders
Wow!
And it hit support in one week

 

[gharghur2]

Dollar/Euro: The Dollar (due to the G-7) gapped down at the start of the week and plunged to support at 86.02. It is oversold, but I do not see any signs of a bottom yet. Will be looking for a positive divergence at new lows.

 

[gharghur2]

Been loooking at the Dollar. Still looks weak, but have a few EW pivot points to watch as this correction unfolds:

85.77 .. 84.22 .. 83.75 and 83.36

So far it seems to be vacillating a bit around the 85.77 level, not sure that will hold. But we are oversold RSI/MACD. Lets see if it can make a positive divergence RSI, like it usually does, on the next low.

 

[gharghur2]

Dollar/Euro:
The Dollar is still searching for a bottom, which looks to be a bit lower from current levels. Should stop at one of the lower pivots.
Still watching!

 

[gharghur2]

Test of the first EW pivot underway at 84.22.
Dollar is way oversold short term.