When you consider the fact that Joe Biden has been keeping oil prices relatively, cheap and stable by releasing oil from the US strategic oil reserves and bleeding it dry----the worst has not even happened yet. Add to that the sabotage of the Nord Strom Pipelines 1 & 2, that guarantees supplies of natural gas will be very expensive. Shipping added to the cost of natural gas will make natural gas very expensive. Inflation Reduction Act has huge taxes on US companies guaranteed to raise the cost of a lot of things US consumers buy. OPEC has announced a 2,000,000 barrels of oil per day production cut. Oil is headed higher. That guarantees Europe has a severe recession----US is next to feel severe recession as Europe is one of the largest trading partners of the US. When Europe is unable to buy a lot of US goods, US companies who export to Europe will layoff people, some will go bankrupt. So, how can you set a bottom on that? A bottom will be set but, only after severe recessions has hit Europe and the US. Those sanctions they imposed on Russia is coming back to bite the US and Europe in a large way. The bear market has a long ways to go. Trying to predict its end is a huge waste of time.
Doesn't 30% down feel about right for where this bear market should land?
- Thread starter SoyUnGanador
- Start date
We haven't seen the "earnings recession" part yet. Someone said current P/E is something like 17x. Bear markets typically(?) get P/E down to 8-12x. And so far earnings estimates have come down only slightly. Also...
Seems to me this bear market has quite a lot further to fall. (I understand nobody wants to hear that.)
Seems to me this bear market has quite a lot further to fall. (I understand nobody wants to hear that.)
Last edited:
yeah why are you trying to anticipate ?
trade your system..commit to your SL s be disciplined thats all that matters
You said it best. Never ceases to amaze me. Other traders minding what others are doing with their trades. Focus on your trades. Your monies are at risk in those trades. I am only interested in my trades and how I handle them. That is the only thing that matters. Other traders making monies or losing monies in their accounts have no effect on me. Trying to find the bottom is a fool's errand.
Dec SPX 4400 C's are going for $7.50
16% in 70 days?
Sounds like easy money for the bears.
????
vanzandt, interesting - but if you think about it in the covered call sense, if SPX is at 3770, and you sell the call for $7.50, isn't that only a .20% return over that period more/less? So if you round the period down to 60 days, then you could do that 6 times a year. So your return selling those calls would be 1.2% a year.
So isn't that just a way out of the money strike call being sold for not much money? Not seeing anything special about that. Obviously its way out of money, but there are always options being sold (or at least quoted!) way out of the money.
Thanks!
Damn you just scared the crap out of me. Yea, didn't want to hear that, but I needed to! Thanks!
Oh shit, I misunderstood then. I don't care what the stock market did from the time the economy technically went into recession until the time it technically got out of it, that is next to worthless because the stock market doesn't track that. I'm more after how far did the market go down from highest high before the recession to the lowest low during/after the recession, that sort of thing. If its way worse than 30% on average that is scary.
Although I agree, that picture is a type of chart crime. A logarithmic chart would give a cleaner picture. Of course, the difference between GDP and market cap is going to run away when both series are exponential.
Not market cap to GDP here, just P/E, but an illustration of how it's easier to interpret the multiple than if the raw values were plotted: https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio