Doesn't 30% down feel about right for where this bear market should land?

[Scataphagos]

I'm more after how far did the market go down from highest high before the recession to the lowest low during/after the recession, that sort of thing. If its way worse than 30% on average that is scary.

I've read, "Average bear market has been -37% and lasting 277 days". If that's the case, this bear would bottom out late in October at ~ 3000.

So... is this an average bear or will it be bigger??

 

[SoyUnGanador]

I've read, "Average bear market has been -37% and lasting 277 days". If that's the case, this bear would bottom out late in October at ~ 3000.

So... is this an average bear or will it be bigger??

Wow, still so far to fall just for an average bear! And the last question makes it even scarier.

 

[Scataphagos]

Wow, still so far to fall just for an average bear! And the last question makes it even scarier.

Some have warned, "worst bear market ever... rival or even exceeding the Great Depression". Hard to fathom that, but considering how bloated all the bubbles, who knows?

To me, the market is acting like it's still in the "denial" stage. If that's correct, long way to go before bottom.

 

[Handle123]

https://www-businessinsider-com.cdn...rth-turning-theory-millennials-boomers-2020-6

Are we due for depression? Probably.... 80% of Americans have consumer debt.

https://shiftprocessing.com/america...erts, the,$38,000 not including mortgage debt.

I can see S&P index below 2000. I see too many signs of hiring to consider this as recession.

 

[Scataphagos]

I can see S&P index below 2000. I see too many signs of hiring to consider this as recession.

<2000 is my guess also.

 

[murray t turtle]

This is not a normal bear market, it is a post bubble bear market. These tend to be more brutal.

The Nasdaq fell almost 80% after the the 2000 bubble.
The Dow fell almost 90% after the 1929 bubble.........................
Not saying things are going to get that bad this time.
But if we only see 40% down in the S&P and down 50% in the Nasdaq, then we got off lightly.

%%
SAME with QQQ\
not likely DOW or DIA falls 90%. NOT near the bank failures , now\
+ we now have so many welfare programs+ FDIC.
Oil did get much cheaper+ oil bears did ok\ they stared selling oil by the quart\LOL
THAT remains to be seen if OCT lives its Stock Trader's Almanac nickname ''bear killer''

 

[vanzandt]

vanzandt, interesting - but if you think about it in the covered call sense, if SPX is at 3770, and you sell the call for $7.50, isn't that only a .20% return over that period more/less? So if you round the period down to 60 days, then you could do that 6 times a year. So your return selling those calls would be 1.2% a year.

So isn't that just a way out of the money strike call being sold for not much money? Not seeing anything special about that. Obviously its way out of money, but there are always options being sold (or at least quoted!) way out of the money.

Thanks!

Yeah I know lol, hence the proverbial "pennies in front of a steam roller" adage.
Big open interest on them though. The AM settled strike. 61,000.
Another 19,000 were bought today. Most of them at $6.80.
Wonder why? Must be a hedge.

 

[smallfil]

https://www-businessinsider-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.businessinsider.com/protests-coronavirus-crisis-fourth-turning-theory-millennials-boomers-2020-6?amp=&amp_gsa=1&amp_js_v=a9&usqp=mq331AQKKAFQArABIIACAw==#amp_tf=From %1$s&aoh=16650732993274&referrer=https://www.google.com&ampshare=https://www.businessinsider.com/protests-coronavirus-crisis-fourth-turning-theory-millennials-boomers-2020-6

Are we due for depression? Probably.... 80% of Americans have consumer debt.

https://shiftprocessing.com/american-debt/#:~:text=According to financial experts, the,$38,000 not including mortgage debt.

I can see S&P index below 2000. I see too many signs of hiring to consider this as recession.

We are not far from the severe recession coming but, it is not apparent to most investors and traders. It will start with Europe as it gets hit by very high natural gas prices. European consumers are already paying 300% more for natural gas and most of them, even the small businesses cannot afford it. The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines 1 & 2, guarantees natural gas prices will go even higher. Now, they have to haul it via natural gas container ships. There are not enough natural gas ships to go around. Demand is sky high. Oil is the second gut punch Europe is about to get as OPEC cuts 2,000,000 barrels of oil daily. Joe Biden has been bleeding the US strategic oil reserves dry by selling cheap oil to Europe. Oil dropping is a result of this manipulation. That is about to end when there is not a drop left. Wait till January 2023. By then, full blown recession will be in Europe. US will be next as the European Union is one of the largest trading partners of the US. When Europe is in a recession, how can they buy US goods when they have little monies left? So, US layoffs, US business going bankrupt. It is going to be pretty ugly because the US already has huge deficits on trade.

 

[vanzandt]

Opens at 8:30 EST today

.

 

[murray t turtle]

I've read, "Average bear market has been -37% and lasting 277 days". If that's the case, this bear would bottom out late in October at ~ 3000.

So... is this an average bear or will it be bigger??

%%
BEAR trends \bear markets seem to be getting shorter\ but\
1973, 74,
2000-01-2002,
2008 went down much more than that37%, especially in NQ, or QQQ.
NOT a prediction + not insured by any federal agency................................