I was just thinking - are we (or were we) on some indexes down like 30% or close to it? What is the average down % in the average bear market? Maybe that's right where we should land, given the severity of the likely recession that is coming. I mean, we were down about 50% in 2008, and the world literally almost ended then, in the financial/economic sense at least. Down 30% might feel just about right for a recession that might be bad but not all that bad, probably not close to the end of the world like 2008. Just thinking out loud here, curious as to what other people have to say about this thought.
Doesn't 30% down feel about right for where this bear market should land?
- Thread starter SoyUnGanador
- Start date
Who cares where the market goes.... on a daily basis, weekly basis, yearly basis. Or any timeframe basis.
All that matters is your ability to anticipate it, and to trade it. Without losing, breaking down, and getting frazzled and dazzled.
Hard to say, but so far the drawdown (at least for the S&P 500) has been a little milder than the COVID crash (after which the market recovered in record time) and the 1987 bear market that mostly occurred in a one-day 20% crash (S&P down about 33% at its low point about a month later IIRC). After the '87 crash, it took the S&P about 2 years to reach a new high. It was mostly a gentle bull market back up, not a V-shaped recovery like we've see more often in recent years.
Stock Performance in Every Recession Since 1980
https://www.fool.com/research/stock-performance-recessions/
WOW, thanks schizo! This makes me feel even more like we are not far off the bottoms... we've already had a much worse pullback than many recessions!
Keep in mind that the 30% decline is from the START to the END of the recession. It doesn't take into effect the decline from the HIGHEST to the LOWEST, which is a lot more than 30%.
WFIW, the market has never put in a Bear market bottom while the Fed is raising interest rates. Standing on the back truck bumper looking through strong binoculars I still can't see the bottom from my personal overlook. <sigh>
This is not a normal bear market, it is a post bubble bear market. These tend to be more brutal.
The Nasdaq fell almost 80% after the the 2000 bubble.
The Dow fell almost 90% after the 1929 bubble.
The Nikkei fell 80% after the 80s bubble.
Not saying things are going to get that bad this time.
But if we only see 40% down in the S&P and down 50% in the Nasdaq, then we got off lightly.
The Nasdaq fell almost 80% after the the 2000 bubble.
The Dow fell almost 90% after the 1929 bubble.
The Nikkei fell 80% after the 80s bubble.
Not saying things are going to get that bad this time.
But if we only see 40% down in the S&P and down 50% in the Nasdaq, then we got off lightly.
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2016 is calling you.
Concerning March 2009, March 2020, Fall 2016 at what prices did you go 100% all in stocks again ?
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