Does the market really change?

MrRenev said:
Interesting... There is so much evidence about it, but you know better. "But muh lambo and trading educator $2999 course!".

Taiwan (entire country): 99% of day traders are individual investors, most of the other 1% are corporations (hedgers, insiders, idk)
Almost all of them lose (I suspect the few ones that make money are the ones that run pump & dumps), the "winners" barely make anything, losers lose way more than what the pump and dump ones make, and there is 0 learning they do not perform better the longer they have been trading (giving additional proof the handful that make money did not learn how to but simply cheat).
http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/odean/papers/Day Traders/Day Trading and Learning 110217.pdf


Brazil (entire country day traders in the indice mini future - 10 times the e-mini volume): The longer they trade the more they lose, of those that traded 300+ days 97% lost money including big losses, very few made more than minimum wage, and the most "successful" one - in the entire country - made a whooping 300 bucks a day with enormous risk (over 2000 daily volatility - when he stops "winning" he will blow up fast)
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3423101


An average institution: Academics looked at the intraday trading results of a bank and found that they made 0 money day trading
http://www.tickbytickdata.com/filea...0606-MendeMenkhoff-ProfSpecIntraDayFxTrad.pdf


Prop firm: Academics looked at a prop day trading firm in 1999, the golden era of day trading, and what a surprise they found that on average the day gamblers lost 750 a day, the most "profitable" one made $197,000 and the biggest loser lost 748,000. Looks like a normal distribution in a losing game to me...
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2469/faj.v59.n6.2578


The SOES bandits made money. At the absolute peak of the dot com bubble there was a period of a couple of weeks where about half a day gamblers were able to make money - but infinitely less than if they held their trades. Other than this day gamblers never make money. Never have never will. At best there will be miracle periods of a few weeks where they randomly make some money but again far less than if they were real investors.

But I am pretty sure the clowns that call themselves day traders will never be profitable. If there ever is an edge quant traders that understand statistics, mathematical finance, and are always on the lookout for a flaw with an army of computers and algos, will arbitrage the fuck out of any intraday obvious edge. They are pushing the technology to the limit and fighting for pennies - which they scale to the max taking hundreds or thousands of trades a day. And quants are not making hundreds of percent returns a year that retail day gamblers dream of. They make returns similar to regular investors, if they made much more then more people would get into quant trading and the edge would get smaller and their returns too.
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So all those quants are driving lambos taking $$$ from day traders ?
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Dreadsen said:
Okay now put this study in context with the Ryan Sullivan , Allan Timmermann and Halbert White study i posted above.
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lol
First the first study you linked is not available, the second is 300 pages and idk what I'm supposed to see in there, and the third one is telling us that all 4 indices provided returns in 1990-2000 with several strategies, the biggest returns one was the Russell 2000 and I could have told you with my eyes closed no need to make a retarded "academic studies" the price trended up and there were alot of pullbacks therefore...
And the "paper" tells us also that between 1990 and 2000 the Nasdaq was in a bubble and every dumb TA strategy they tested underperformed buy & hold.
Finally the paper tells us that S&P500 and DJIA went up in a straight line not giving as many trades.

mArKetS chAnGE beCAUse SomETimes PRicE gO uP aND soMEtimES pRIce gO doWN.

Did you know that high level genius professors in the town of South Park found out that when you piss on a monkey it angers it?

Heydrrich said:
So all those quants are driving lambos taking $$$ from day traders ?
View attachment 241561
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You are mocking yourself what? Why?
 
MrRenev said:
lol
You are mocking yourself what? Why?
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You say day traders cannot be profitable. So you are either the smartest person in the thread to know this.......... or the biggest fool. I assumed the latter so I tried to level.
 
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So, the question was "Does the market really change?".
...Obviously people don't change :)

What changes: The money flow (not the indicator..), the tech, the strategies that people use and the business cycles.
 
While it is entirely possible the same patterns repeat,that tidbit of info has no bearing on whether markets change...or not..Think about it...

On a macro level,the,markets go up,go down,or stay the same.Duration and volatility vary.The argument that the events have been observed before does not mean markets do not change.

Markets are function of supply and demand ,fear and greed. Neither is constant,never has been,never will...
 
stockpredictor said:
Markets never change. The same patterns repeat. Jesse Livermore proved this by multiplying his account over and over, regardless of bull or bear market. His words are the same as those of De La Vega who existed hundreds of years prior, just as Honma and ancient merchants said.
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Interesting. Never heard of Honma. You have more on ancient merchants/speculators?
 
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