Does the market really change?

This has turned into a Semantics argument. You can't have a discussion when all participants are arguing different arguments based on different definitions.
 
Last 20 includes some very bad timing as it started with the dot com crash..But that's a good objective starting point..Regardless,it certainly outperformed inflation..
 
Peter8519 said:
Exactly! ;)
Don't jump in when it started to cross over 50 SMA. Be patient and wait for a few more days because most early trend will die prematurely. :cool:
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Why would one jump in early to go long?
The stats show a stock remains above its SMA for 1-10 days is 67%. For 1,2 or up to 10 days. Then the data shows only 10% hold for 20 days.
The play is to short those that are above the SMA after the 10 day mark, or at least go short on a lower low. That is the edge in this data set
 
I would,be curious to know what percent of stocks that are 5% (or some vol adj percent)above the MA stay above for more than 20 days??
 
Blitzjoker said:
It seems a common theme with traders that they find an edge in the market which works for a while, but then the market 'changes' and the edge disappears and starts losing money.

This seems odd to me; clearly the market is sometimes going up, sometimes going down, and sometimes going sideways; is sometimes volatile and sometimes not; but is there more to it than that? Surely an 'edge' should be able to cope with such things, as they clearly happen quite frequently and many traders say their systems have been tested over 5 or 10 years? I have never seen anyone explain specifically how the market 'changed' in some mysterious way, other than to make their edge non-profitable. It seems more likely to me that the edge never really existed, and that the trader had a promising backtest and was then 'fooled by randomness' as Taleb might say. Perhaps some of the experienced traders can throw some light on it to a rookie like me.
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It is a fact that real trading edges (anomalies, regulation glitches, etc) often end.

There is no argument to be had on this.
 
DTB2 said:
Why would one jump in early to go long?
The stats show a stock remains above its SMA for 1-10 days is 67%. For 1,2 or up to 10 days. Then the data shows only 10% hold for 20 days.
The play is to short those that are above the SMA after the 10 day mark, or at least go short on a lower low. That is the edge in this data set
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That type of analysis is very useful, if consistent. It would be great to see if it works by sector and/or price range of stocks, or adapt parameters as needed.
 
KCalhoun said:
That type of analysis is very useful, if consistent. It would be great to see if it works by sector and/or price range of stocks, or adapt parameters as needed.
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The data is indeed interesting and would be helpful. I just think the wrong trade was concluded form the data provided.

When would one go long if the data shows the "trend" only lasts 10 days max?
 
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