Does the market really change?

TimMykes said:
no one with 16,000 posts here is a real trader. paper guys post that often
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You didn't answer the question. Who were you before you were TimMykes? I mean, you claim it was the dumbest post on ET for years, but you joined less than a month ago. Were you just a visitor for years, with no login ID?
 
TimMykes said:
and you didnt deny being a paper trader
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Because if you have been visiting this site for years, you would know the journal section. So I didn't think there was a need to answer what would be obvious to you, as a years-long visitor/member of this site.
 
D,would you please elaborate a bit on not noticing the large changes

d08 said:
Boiling frog metaphor applies. If you're doing discretionary trading, you won't notice the large changes. Data analysis will display the changes however.
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taowave said:
D,would you please elaborate a bit on not noticing the large changes
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Since the changes are often gradual. A human will not observe the changes, especially when not looking at the long-term data through objective means (data analysis).
A man slowly gaining weight won't notice it until being weighted, shown a picture of himself or finding that his old clothes do not fit.
 
I think it depends on the nature of the edge. When it comes to inter market correlations and market structure exploitation I’ve seen some guys get clipped pretty hard before it became obvious that what was once an ATM no longer was.

d08 said:
Since the changes are often gradual. A human will not observe the changes, especially when not looking at the long-term data through objective means (data analysis).
A man slowly gaining weight won't notice it until being weighted, shown a picture of himself or finding that his old clothes do not fit.
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Longer one trades, excuse of market not acting right vanishes when you have lived through some form of it several times.

I have over 100k hours of screen time, I have tested some methods over 50 years, I am very good at chart reading for my own self, nothing is new any more.

People don't take enough time to learn, they open an account and like the new account is yelling "come to me" and most before long say the game is rigged, of course it is rigged, first bright thing they discovered. People lack ability to adapt, instead of figuring how to trade, figure out what to do when the position is wrong. Figure out what to the left of now the trade should not been taken.

What am I thinking...We need more fresh meat.
 
Blitzjoker said:
It seems a common theme with traders that they find an edge in the market which works for a while, but then the market 'changes' and the edge disappears and starts losing money.

This seems odd to me; clearly the market is sometimes going up, sometimes going down, and sometimes going sideways; is sometimes volatile and sometimes not; but is there more to it than that? Surely an 'edge' should be able to cope with such things, as they clearly happen quite frequently and many traders say their systems have been tested over 5 or 10 years? I have never seen anyone explain specifically how the market 'changed' in some mysterious way, other than to make their edge non-profitable. It seems more likely to me that the edge never really existed, and that the trader had a promising backtest and was then 'fooled by randomness' as Taleb might say. Perhaps some of the experienced traders can throw some light on it to a rookie like me.
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Markets have “regime changes” here and there.
 
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