Does the market really change?

Turveyd said:
Sometimes markets are stronger than at other times or more choppy, but ultimately they don't change, as said the Trader loses confidence, gets greedy and tries to make more and messes up there profitable system.

Been trading for a lot of years, can't see any change myself.
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Boiling frog metaphor applies. If you're doing discretionary trading, you won't notice the large changes. Data analysis will display the changes however.
 
d08 said:
Boiling frog metaphor applies. If you're doing discretionary trading, you won't notice the large changes. Data analysis will display the changes however.
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As most do discretionary trading then that's all that really matters.
 
Blitzjoker said:
It seems a common theme with traders that they find an edge in the market which works for a while, but then the market 'changes' and the edge disappears and starts losing money.

This seems odd to me; clearly the market is sometimes going up, sometimes going down, and sometimes going sideways; is sometimes volatile and sometimes not; but is there more to it than that? Surely an 'edge' should be able to cope with such things, as they clearly happen quite frequently and many traders say their systems have been tested over 5 or 10 years? I have never seen anyone explain specifically how the market 'changed' in some mysterious way, other than to make their edge non-profitable. It seems more likely to me that the edge never really existed, and that the trader had a promising backtest and was then 'fooled by randomness' as Taleb might say. Perhaps some of the experienced traders can throw some light on it to a rookie like me.
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“Edges” are trading opportunities and they come and go. As flows change, as information changes, trading opportunities change too.

There was a time you could earn 30percent trading merger arbitrage. Now you can only earn 3percent. Low interest rates and excess liquidity has killed this Edge.
 
Does anyone know if the average true range, or just daily range of price is larger or relatively the same, or smaller than the deviation/range of price in decades prior?
 
Since 94,the Normalised 14 Day ATR on the SPY has ranged from apx .4 Percent to 3.4%.There have been 2 vicious spikes where the NATR got up to close to 8 percent.(08 and 20)..There are definetly periods of 4-6 years with significantly less/more volatility
 
I have personally had edges that disappeared, and I know plenty of traders whose edges disappeared. These "edge" circumstances I speak of were always some sort of inter market correlation or market structure dislocation in an intra day time frame setting.

I've been swing trading in earnest the past thirteen years and that has been quite durable.
 
bone said:
I have personally had edges that disappeared, and I know plenty of traders whose edges disappeared. These "edge" circumstances I speak of were always some sort of inter market correlation or market structure dislocation in an intra day time frame setting.

I've been swing trading in earnest the past thirteen years and that has been quite durable.
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Ive had 20 edges go away

But one persists , and because I like ya, I'll tell you what it is . Free, Right now !!!! Excited ?

I do the opposite of what the idiots do . As often as possible .

Huge edge,

even better, since new idiots are born daily, there's an unlimited supply.

many are reading this, but don't realize who they are
 
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