Does the market really change?

[d08]

Suit yourself, but it won't change the facts.

Sick and tired of hearing that "markets change" routine.

How long have you traded? I don't mean putting a few trades on here and there but significant sample sizes.
Since you registered in 2020, it is a relevant question.

In my case one of my strats had severely diminished profits, it seemed to have gotten crowded. It worked well for 20 years or more and this year had record drawdowns and hasn't bounced back. The only thing that saved my case were modifications done late last year. And no, it's not long-only, it has short bias.
Markets change as opportunities get crowded. This is true for absolutely anything to do with supply and demand, it's true for all of history as well.

 

[Tradex]

There's nothing consistent about trend-following

Alright I am done here.

 

[murray t turtle]

Markets trend 30% of the time, on average.

%%
I agree;
partly/with glee.
Really depends on when we measure,Tradex.
And here is another reason so many hate trend following.Stock Traders Almanac proved JAN barometer up/that year is up 88% of the time/year.But when it fails, it may fail bigtime=1987+ 2009.This year looks like 2009.
NOT a prediction+ back to my uptrending chart/QQQ

 

[taowave]

You were done way before you started

Alright I am done here.

 

[DrCornwallis]

Markets do not change, only losing traders use that excuse to "explain" their inability to make money in the long run.

Of course the market changes.

Just think if you had a shit hot setup, with an 80% hit rate, and you posted that setup online, and every trader and his dog started using it.....

......what do you think would happen to the hit rate of that setup?

Thus, the market changes overtime.

 

[DrCornwallis]

Alright I am done here.

LOL...them idiot trend followers!

Don't they know the way to make da big buxx in da market, is too short against pivot highs.......Sell when they Yell, Buy when they Cry, see?

 

[lindq]

What change?

Markets go up, down, sideways, that's it.

The change is in the DEGREE and the ENERGY with which markets go up down and sideways.

Thus, saying that there is no change in the markets is ignoring some very important factors.

You might as well go sailing, but ignore the force of the wind. Good luck with that. Hope you can swim.

 

[zghorner]

One of my favorite things about the Market Wizards books is reading about things like options trading in its infancy before many people knew about it and how some of those guys made a killing just exploiting pricing discrepancies. there are several examples in those books where what once was an incredible edge simply no longer exists today. IMO this is a clear example of market change

 

[Grantx]

simple data series analysis shows that market's prices are not normally distributed.

This really depends on the timeframe. With a little effort you can find normal distribution (and therefore an edge) in various places.

 

[taowave]

When I first broke in to trading brokers would offer reversals/conversions for 1-3 dollar credits.Risk free,on a 1000 lot,you could make between 100 and 300k..I would turn down trades to make 50k...

Now,you are lucky to leg it for 5000 dollars....

One of my favorite things about the Market Wizards books is reading about things like options trading in its infancy before many people knew about it and how some of those guys made a killing just exploiting pricing discrepancies. there are several examples in those books where what once was an incredible edge simply no longer exists today. IMO this is a clear example of market change