This is the best I have. You can use it to time the trend and profit from it.
Does the market really change?
- Thread starter Blitzjoker
- Start date
This is the best I have. You can use it to time the trend and profit from it.
Ed Seykota?
Yes! One of the best comments on the nature of markets.
Market is volatile and it can change and it depends on the economic event happening around the globe.
If you look at things in that framework,nothing in the world ever changes.
You and others seem to adhere to "the more things change,the more they stay the same"..
I asked if you traded derivatives as there are different dimensions as opposed to trading the cash..
Pre 87 crash there was virtually no downside skew in the indices. Post 87,when was the last time you saw the 75 percent spot strike trade at the same vol as ATM??
There is no denying the markets can do one of 3 things..Go up,Go down,Go sideways...Does that mean markets,stay the same??
A car can go foward,in reverse or sit still..Does that imply that the Model T is basically the same as a Tesla?? No real change??
Imho,the non change crowd simply looks at everything in a range framework...If I presented you with a 40 year, 1 year rolling period of the S and P distribution of prices with their varying associated Skew,Kurtosis,H Vol ,you would simply disregard the variances and,simply take the high and low of the varying metrics and state unequivocally that the markets do not change,they trade in the range....
I get it....
What I don't get from the "no change" crowd is the hubris that losing traders are the only ones claiming markets change,or guys like Dennis and Eckhardt were lucky knuckleheads...
That's weak
You and others seem to adhere to "the more things change,the more they stay the same"..
I asked if you traded derivatives as there are different dimensions as opposed to trading the cash..
Pre 87 crash there was virtually no downside skew in the indices. Post 87,when was the last time you saw the 75 percent spot strike trade at the same vol as ATM??
There is no denying the markets can do one of 3 things..Go up,Go down,Go sideways...Does that mean markets,stay the same??
A car can go foward,in reverse or sit still..Does that imply that the Model T is basically the same as a Tesla?? No real change??
Imho,the non change crowd simply looks at everything in a range framework...If I presented you with a 40 year, 1 year rolling period of the S and P distribution of prices with their varying associated Skew,Kurtosis,H Vol ,you would simply disregard the variances and,simply take the high and low of the varying metrics and state unequivocally that the markets do not change,they trade in the range....
I get it....
What I don't get from the "no change" crowd is the hubris that losing traders are the only ones claiming markets change,or guys like Dennis and Eckhardt were lucky knuckleheads...
That's weak
Neither "edge" nor "market" is not defined -- nor even "random".... Hmmmm.
So let's declare "edge" to be a systematic advantage-producing method over an ill-defined or even undefined process. Let's further define "market" to be that process, wherein instantaneously-varying participants trade varying volumes via prices that coalesce around a central-price target that itself is subject to serious series-correlated effects.
And right there, we're done: price = f[price{t-1}] + e where e is a (truly) random component. Put this into any spreadsheet, and you will get a graph that is indistinguishable from any market graph of any commodity at any time.
Does this mean that markets don't trend? No. But no one can define a trend a priori, either.
Does this mean that an edge can come and go? Surely yes.
Does this mean that we can be "fooled by randomness"? Only if we think "e" does not exist. (Otherwise, as regularly happens, we're "fooled" all the way to the bank.)
There's no need for an either/or bifurcation here -- it's not "Random or Edge!". It's just a question of focusing your telescope.
FWIW, I would encourage any thoughts/replies on this topic to survive the Farmer's Market/Tomato Truck Test, wherein a neighborhood farmer's market -- at happy equilibrium with aggregate tomatoes sought equally aggregate tomatoes supplied at a happy, happy price -- suddenly experiences a pickup truck backing in that is *heaped* with bright red ready-to-burst tomatoes that the seller (obviously) needs to sell *today*. If your picture of a market can work with that, then it will work with TSLA or APPL or F, too.
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~99% of equities are owned by institutions.
(Except for the insiders and small/micro caps)
The rest of the products are made by institutions.
The way that i perceive this game now, is a wonderful machine, designed to suck in the fools and to let the smart ones climb up the financial hierarchy, despite of where you live and who you are.
Best way to take care of potential genius around the globe, provide em with resources, that becomes so easily acquired, once he or she finds so called edge/holy grail.
Distribution of the capital, from fools to the smart ones, because -
you don't want your society to be run by idiots.
(Except for the insiders and small/micro caps)
The rest of the products are made by institutions.
The way that i perceive this game now, is a wonderful machine, designed to suck in the fools and to let the smart ones climb up the financial hierarchy, despite of where you live and who you are.
Best way to take care of potential genius around the globe, provide em with resources, that becomes so easily acquired, once he or she finds so called edge/holy grail.
Distribution of the capital, from fools to the smart ones, because -
you don't want your society to be run by idiots.
Yes.
Buy when the trend is up, short when it's down.
That's it, the rest is just conversation.