Does Probability exist?

romik · Jun 11, 2015

Generally speaking folks that seek high win systems (that don't exist or last) are new to trading and/or under capitalised. In trading one has to have a plan B and it is in acceptance that there will be numerous losses and at times there will be consecutive ones. Yes, trading requires skill and discipline and capital as well as understanding that you aren't doing a jump onto a moving train solo, there are others on it already and want to get on and off it.

i am nobody · Jul 17, 2015

romik said:
"Many longtime successful managers have done it with a winning percentage just above 50% and even the best traders are right only about 60% of the time."

This chart shows the distribution of a series of 44 consecutive trades. The red line shows where the losing trades are, left of the line. It clearly shows that probabilities exist.
I removed the x and y axis because I don't want to discuss performance. Whether you think, or are sure, that the trades are fake, or real, I don't care. I just give this information, you can do with it what you want. I am already used now to be attacked by bashers, so...

JTrades · Jul 17, 2015

i am nobody said:
This chart shows the distribution of a series of 44 consecutive trades. The red line shows where the losing trades are, left of the line. It clearly shows that probabilities exist.
I removed the x and y axis because I don't want to discuss performance. Whether you think, or are sure, that the trades are fake, or real, I don't care. I just give this information, you can do with it what you want. I am already used now to be attacked by bashers, so...

View attachment 154841

Thank you for posting. It's interesting.

Some questions (which of course you're entitled to not answer):

1) Is this your typical performance, or a cherry picked sample - i.e. what does the distribution of your previous consecutive 44 trades look like?

2) Does the x-axis represent profit on a linear scale - I assume it does, but just checking?

3) Does the profit include commissions, and if not, by how much does the distribution shift to the left?

romik · Jul 17, 2015

i am nobody said:
This chart shows the distribution of a series of 44 consecutive trades. The red line shows where the losing trades are, left of the line. It clearly shows that probabilities exist.
I removed the x and y axis because I don't want to discuss performance. Whether you think, or are sure, that the trades are fake, or real, I don't care. I just give this information, you can do with it what you want. I am already used now to be attacked by bashers, so...

View attachment 154841

What's your average reward in relation to average risk?

i am nobody · Jul 17, 2015

JTrades said:
1) Is this your typical performance, or a cherry picked sample - i.e. what does the distribution of your previous consecutive 44 trades look like?

These are all trade from june. The chart of the distribution has always more or less the same shape. Profit per trade can change because that depends of the trending of the market.

JTrades said:
2) Does the x-axis represent profit on a linear scale - I assume it does, but just checking?

Unfortunatelly it is not a lineair scale. I did this on purpose to avoid that people can start to calculate. I had in past already experiences that, by being to clear, people could calculate my performance. So each bar got a different scaling. I mean first bar can be trades between 1 and 2 points, next one can be trades between 2 and 7 points, third one between 7 and 8..... If I would use a lineair scale it would look like the distribution in randomness, with the only difference that the center (highest point in the curve) would be much more to the right of 0. I hope you understand what I mean. Watch the chart added to see the shape (more or less).

JTrades said:
3) Does the profit include commissions, and if not, by how much does the distribution shift to the left?

Net profits, so after slippage and commission. Prices of execution minus commissions.

View attachment 154844

This chart is more how it looks in reality. Assymetric because right side is bigger.

i am nobody · Jul 17, 2015

romik said:
What's your average reward in relation to average risk?

Ratio is very good

44 trades with less than 10% losing trades. Profit per trade is bigger than loss per trade. That's all I can tell.
But if you can calculate you already know that in losing trades I give back less than 10% of my gross profits (as profits per trade are bigger than losses per trade).

romik · Jul 17, 2015

i am nobody said:
Ratio is very good

What is the ratio and how often do you trade?

galvinlee888 · Jul 17, 2015

romik said:
The problem - probability is always 50% or less. Solution - reward has to be a multiple of average risk. The end.

True.
The problem is most of the novice losers/broker sponsor posters will claim that they are able to find trades with > 50% win rate AND reward (after commission).

romik · Jul 17, 2015

If big guns struggle to achieve a rate over 50%, then that's why I am sceptical of retail traders making claims.

galvinlee888 · Jul 17, 2015

romik said:
I am nobody, why talk about it, just display this 10 times in a row and we will be able to judge this based on stats. You see many posters just state that they can do this and that with high win rate, yet not anyone seems to be willing to display this ability publicly using real time or advance calls using stops. The ones that do post real time confirm that price oscillations can not be predicted with high accuracy with stops being used.

100% agree.
High win rate system will come with big drawdown (chop is your friend) , low win rate system will come with small but high number of drawdown (trend is your friend).

Nobody just talks (talk is cheap) and throw around some trivial bs math, never been backup by any statistics proof. Example, if he claims he has 70% win rate, a list of 10 to 15 real time trades with clear PT and SL will backup his claim, but he never shows any real trades and prefer to divert attention with bs statement , highly suspicious.