Does Probability exist?

[marketsurfer]

Actually, the small caps generally but not always, are first to rise at bottoms and first to decline at tops.

Can you post charts showing tj

Instead of wasting so much time playing Gotcha, why not get somebody to explain "price drivers" to you that you can explain it to somebody else to a point where he/they might actually be able to do something with it/them?

No gotcha-- just requesting support for the old wives tales. Why not just show the support. Charts are oerfect for this! I am open to learn so please produce the requested material or don't post unsupported platitudes. Innocent citizens are reading.

Thanks!

 

[dbphoenix]

Can you post charts showing tj


No gotcha-- just requesting support for the old wives tales. Why not just show the support. Charts are oerfect for this! I am open to learn so please produce the requested material or don't post unsupported platitudes. Innocent citizens are reading.

Thanks!

1. Why not explain "price drivers"?

2. Charts? You believe charts are useless.

3. Open to learn? Really? You think "trend" is a figment of the imagination.

4. If you don't like my "platitudes", click Report.

Have a nice day.

 

[debitspread]

If you don't like my "platitudes", click Report

Wow, why the truculence? He was just suggesting you provide content meatier than your platitudes, perhaps with realized, or at least hypothetical, performance. Perfectly reasonable.

 

[samuel11]

This is what Emanuel Derman wrote on twitter today:

"1/n Because we can express the value of a security in terms of the pseudo-probabilities, we will find it is convenient …

2/n to think of the prices of options in probabilistic terms, even when no actual probabilities are involved. …

3/3 The pseudo-probabilities of events are determined from market prices. The actual probabilities of human events are never truly known.

4/4 A lot of mathematical finance people find that hard to remember.”

https://twitter.com/EmanuelDerman

 

[romik]

People keep mixing historical statistic with probability, probability in trading is an unknown factor. Stop deluding yourselves folks.

 

[OddTrader]

Practically, Yes!

Perhaps two perspectives:

A. 95% traders in long run. http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/95-are-losers.265548/

B. 75% trades in long run. (no matter what back-test results historically.) Probably due to a combination of many complex issues/ causes!

http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/es-journal-2015.288816/page-365#post-4134492

+13.5
-2
-1.5
-1.75
-2
+10
+8.75
-0.75
-3
+5
-3.25
-3
+9.75
-2.25
-2.5
+10
-1.5
-2.5
b/e
-2
-2.5
-2.5
-1.5
-1.5
-2.75
-3.25
-2
-4.75
+34.5

--------+42.75

wins: 7 losses: 21
win rate: 0.25
average win: 13.07
average loss: 2.32
Average reward is x5.63 the average risk

 

[romik]

Thanks OddTrader.

This is for folks that strive for high "probability".

Please read this inside out, print and hang on your wall. We are just trying to help you realise the reality of things.


"The difference between a successful trader and a losing trader has a lot less to do with the successful trader’s ability to pick winners than you might think. All traders are going to experience losers and lots of them. It’s a fact of the business."

"Many longtime successful managers have done it with a winning percentage just above 50% and even the best traders are right only about 60% of the time."

http://m.futuresmag.com/2011/12/31/simple-money-management-wins-over-time

 

[romik]

Here is a very simple yet effective system. If weekly and monthly charts confirm an uptrend, then using proper money management one can buy dips on any of lower time frames, striving to achieve average reward x3 average loss. The opposite applies if monthly and weekly charts are bearish (sell retracement on lower time frames). If I can do it, then most of you can, as I am no brainiac.

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Here is a very simple yet effective system. If weekly and monthly charts confirm an uptrend, then using proper money management one can buy dips on any of lower time frames, striving to achieve average reward x3 average loss. The opposite applies if monthly and weekly charts are bearish (sell retracement on lower time frames). If I can do it, then most of you can, as I am no brainiac.

CORRECT

 

[Buy1Sell2]

Thanks OddTrader.

This is for folks that strive for high "probability".

Please read this inside out, print and hang on your wall. We are just trying to help you realise the reality of things.


"The difference between a successful trader and a losing trader has a lot less to do with the successful trader’s ability to pick winners than you might think. All traders are going to experience losers and lots of them. It’s a fact of the business."

"Many longtime successful managers have done it with a winning percentage just above 50% and even the best traders are right only about 60% of the time."

http://m.futuresmag.com/2011/12/31/simple-money-management-wins-over-time

CORRECT