Does Probability exist?

OddTrader said:
So you think your behaviour modelling/approach/signals as you showed can accurately predict the price movement? Every day? If yes, then I would have to change my perception completely. Thanks for your amazing example.
UQ
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I say that my approach works and makes more money than most of the traders make here. Have never a losing week, even losing days are very rare (less than 5 a year I think) and no stress for trading because of the way I trade.

Each time when people prove something the nonbelievers add additional demands. First should make money, second should always make money, third should make fortune without any starting capital, fourth should never have a losing day, fifth profit should be at least 25% a day............

I decide for myself how big my position will be, how many times I will trade or not trade, if I will reinvest profits or not.... I am my own boss and have no responsability to NOBODY. I depend from nobody financially. Nobody has to tell me what to do to proof no matter what.

I will follow the advice from BSAM: I will not discuss anymore because it is useless. I know in what I believe, and the defintion of what that is has no importance. Too many people are discussing here about what the definition is of trend, behavioral finance, etc..... instead of discussing what is really valuable to discuss about. I will put my money where my mouth is and trade.
 
i am nobody said:
I say that my approach works and makes more money than most of the traders make here. Have never a losing week, even losing days are very rare (less than 5 a year I think) and no stress for trading because of the way I trade.
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Interesting oil!

Where is emg? :D http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...e-futures-market-is-for-losers.222458/page-60

i am nobody said:
I would like to repeat my question:

What is your strategy if you go short ES at 495 around end of 1994?
For your information: I saw somebody do this trade for 200 contracts. He did not want to put a stop too. He added on every margin call to his position till he lost 10 mio $.

Afraid to answer? Don't want to share your secret solution for this problem? do you admit that stops are needed and that your statement is completely wrong?
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A few remarks and then I will limit my presence on this forum to reading mostly.
  • My native language is not English which makes it sometimes difficult to me to see the difference between cynical and non cynical reactions. Example:"snake" oil I understand, but when people write "interesting oil", I don't know if I should see this as cynical or not. Per definition I see it as negative as I get mostly negative reactions.
  • Also in the numerous discussions about the definition of certain words I get lost. Many times a good discussion ends up in a"dictionary" battle about what all these used words mean.As a result the really interesting discussion does not take place anymore.
  • About the trade from yesterday: check yourself when we were at 2107 and how long it took before I stayed continues in profit in my open position. I think I was in a comfortable (profitable) position for over 90 % of the trade. Stop at 3 points was never touched (less than 10% of my trades are stopped out). I could put early a stop at entry to trade for free and without any stress, and let my system do the rest. Just had to wait till it would tell me to get out. That's all.
  • ET many times reminds me of a communistic system. Everybody should be equal (read: all people should have the same level of stupidity, originality or intelligence). If you defer from the mass you are a danger for the mass and should be attacked. If there is no place for people who think out of the box, this forum will become a place for zombies where people should not think and just copy what the mass tells them. It will lose all sense to post there. I agree that there are fakers, manipulators and cheaters, but on ET by definition being different from the mass is automatically equal to fakers, manipulators and cheaters.
  • Some people here try to suppress people, like Stalin, Lenin, Mao Tse Toeng and even Poetin suppressed people. The only difference is that on ET we don't get killed. Originality and deflected thinking or behavior are not accepted and should be eliminated.
  • In business people who are original, can think out of the box, or take risks to try new things are the engine for growth. Even if they fail sometimes, the overall result is positive. The same applies to ET. My personal opinion is that bashers and non believer damaged already severely ET. How much damage they caused we will never know because you can never check what knowledge ET lost from posters that left or don't post certain things anymore. The missed opportunities to improve your vision on trading and the markets are countless I am afraid.
  • When I write this, it is not about me, it is about all the people who experience what I experience. I am just a very small, almost neglectable, part of that group.
  • Accusing me from being paid by brokers for posting here is also complete nonsense. Which broker will pay me? Maybe other brokers will get clients from my posting while he is paying the bill? How can I make money? I should ask everybody on ET to send me a message if they open an account because of my postings? And they should do that with the broker that pays me, not with another one! If you think normally you know that this statement is false or maybe even malicious. If that is the way we discuss, I will not participate anymore because it does not fit my personality.
 
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marketsurfer said:
That's all well and good. However, the logic is misapplied if you are using this reasoning to think about financial markets.

Anyone using charts or price is looking at the effect not the cause. Therefore, the idea is fatally flawed at the premise. Understanding the cause allows proper analyse of the future effect which is price movement. You cannot look at the effect and determine the probability of the next effect. It really has nothing to do with it.
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It has gone right over your head hasn't it.

Have you heard the saying: When your cup is full, one has to empty it before any new tea is poured.
 
marketsurfer said:
This site has been taken over by stealth vendors, third world dreamers, and crank engineers. The value is just about completely gone. It has decended to the lowest common denominator. Hopefully it can recover.
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Sad indeed!

A proof: http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index...nce-opening-a-fund.278606/page-2#post-3905439

i am nobody said:
I hope lemarche does not mind that I use his thread for a question about opening a fund.
I would like to open a fund in Luxemburg. I have all I need..... except a licence. Seems to be difficult, if not imossible to get this licence.

I would like to find someone who can help me with his licence to start up. The fund will only trade my own money so there is no risc about customers who can complain.

Who has a licence and can help me? Can be in other country as well, so not limited to Luxemburg. I live in Europe.
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two members with >5,000 posts complaining about the detriment of the very site they frequent. Oh, the ironing!

OddTrader, you may need to sharpen your sequential reading skills. he posted "the fund will only trade my own money."
 
lucysparabola said:
two members with >5,000 posts complaining about the detriment of the very site they frequent. Oh, the ironing!

OddTrader, you may need to sharpen your sequential reading skills. he posted "the fund will only trade my own money."
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Sorry for my IQ is not good enough to understand the post(s)!
 
marketsurfer said:
This site has been taken over by stealth vendors, third world dreamers, and crank engineers. The value is just about completely gone. It has decended to the lowest common denominator. Hopefully it can recover.
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What past value are you looking for that is now gone?

P.S. I posted just yesterday a position sizing algorithm that is new to the trading world. A genuine ET exclusive! Not even the quants had figured this thing out. But maybe I'm just one of those crank engineers you blame for the downfall here.

P.P.S. What are you doing to help restore ET's former glory? Because pissing and moaning alone doesn't quite cut it.
 
OddTrader said:
Sorry for my IQ is not good enough to understand the post(s)!
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  • Opening the fund was for fiscal reasons, nothing else. So only necessary if you can make profit.
  • Opening will cost money, minimum capital is 1.25 million Euro. So you need profits and you need money.
  • Intention was to trade only my own money. So I should be profitable, make enough profit to pay for monthly operational costs and have enough capital to start the fund.
Meanwhile I found a cheaper more flexible and also legal solution.

Your IQ is not the problem. The problem is more evil than that.

From now on you can decide what can be posted as real and what is fake. And don't worry I will not bother you or anybody else anymore.
 
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