Do Trendlines work?
- Thread starter duard
- Start date
What if?
Half hour off?
Lets say you discover you can make money continually in the markets by thinking simply about what is going on and annotaing it the same simple way day after day.
Price moves in ways that are not erratic but on the other hand are smooth and "regular". Volume precedes price in its communication to YOU.
Three sentences in two paragraphs.
So WTF are those white lines on your graph? Please do not answer my rhetorical Q.
Let me chat to you for a moment. Bars are numbered easily on the 5 min chart. Number 1 is between 9:30 and 9:35.
Let us agree that you are going to get very rich reading this one post.
Watch bar 1.
After bar one watch the volume of bar 2. Note when bar 2 reaches a price limit out side of bar 1. Think about the partial volume where that limit was reached.
DRAW THE CHANNEL at that point using the ends of the two bars.
Why? Because you are looking for the first entry of the day TO MAKE MONEYFRO THE WHOLE REST OF THE DAY.
Less than 10 minutes have passed and so I have PREVENTED you from being 1/2 HOUR BEHIND.
Reply to me. Do not tell me anything outside of the content I have put on the table. Nothing. NADA. Just reply within the content I have SPOKEN to you in words. Anything you think up outside the scope so far; place in a toilet and flush the toilet three times consecutively.
effkay,
I read your words, went to the red place, clicked about and came to something that had illustrations.
I could not find a topic on trendlines working. What I saw was frightening and then I connected your words to that.
Your words in small bunches (""...") followed by my fright:
"As I said before trendlines are useful for exits"
Fright 1. At some point people find out that using a trendline for an exit is much too late. Much too late means it is the wrong time to exit and not a place to exit.
", as they only show the rate of the trend and nothing else,"
Fright 2. Trendlines do not show the rate of a trend. To prove that they do not you need to hear from me what shows the rate of a trend. Use a trendline to make a side of the container in which the price is moving. Usually a parallelogram is used. Construct the long and short diagonals of the parallelogram. Use the long diagonal to calculate the rate of the trend.
The nothing else part. I will punch up an 80 pager on that for you.
"I have written an article on basic TA,"
fright 3. I apparently missed it at the red place. There was nothing to speak of at the red place except for many pages and many illustrations that did not have any bar charts, channels nor any commentary on making money. It looked like a loss leader or teaser for something that is proprietary. I saw a bar and a candle. I saw some incorrectly drawn lines on line charts that were sets of values not found on any monitoring charts that are found on any real time displays that people usually use.
"all feedback is appreciated (please give feedback via the site)"
fright 4. I was unable to comply with your request. I was not savvy enough computer and clickingwise. a clear, concise and crisp (elements of style, strunk and white) basic TA article would be about 400 pages for the beginner part, then the TA gets interesting.
I read your words, went to the red place, clicked about and came to something that had illustrations.
I could not find a topic on trendlines working. What I saw was frightening and then I connected your words to that.
Your words in small bunches (""...") followed by my fright:
"As I said before trendlines are useful for exits"
Fright 1. At some point people find out that using a trendline for an exit is much too late. Much too late means it is the wrong time to exit and not a place to exit.
", as they only show the rate of the trend and nothing else,"
Fright 2. Trendlines do not show the rate of a trend. To prove that they do not you need to hear from me what shows the rate of a trend. Use a trendline to make a side of the container in which the price is moving. Usually a parallelogram is used. Construct the long and short diagonals of the parallelogram. Use the long diagonal to calculate the rate of the trend.
The nothing else part. I will punch up an 80 pager on that for you.
"I have written an article on basic TA,"
fright 3. I apparently missed it at the red place. There was nothing to speak of at the red place except for many pages and many illustrations that did not have any bar charts, channels nor any commentary on making money. It looked like a loss leader or teaser for something that is proprietary. I saw a bar and a candle. I saw some incorrectly drawn lines on line charts that were sets of values not found on any monitoring charts that are found on any real time displays that people usually use.
"all feedback is appreciated (please give feedback via the site)"
fright 4. I was unable to comply with your request. I was not savvy enough computer and clickingwise. a clear, concise and crisp (elements of style, strunk and white) basic TA article would be about 400 pages for the beginner part, then the TA gets interesting.
"Note when bar 2 reaches a price limit out side of bar 1."
Jack. A very concise algorithmic description. But the "reaches a price limit" bit is ambiguous to my reading as to whether bar 2 must be complete or not before you draw that channel. Mike.
Jack. A very concise algorithmic description. But the "reaches a price limit" bit is ambiguous to my reading as to whether bar 2 must be complete or not before you draw that channel. Mike.
Don't worry about it.
I am making a connection between the leading indicator (volume) and the price.
there are many people here who use a spike indicator that is determined by looking at DOM. what i said is not beginner stuff so you are not going to make any connections. It turns out the person i responded to has a lot on the ball and I am going to do a little house cleaning arond some of the places where a person can begin to get into the "groove".
You play the anomaly game as a B person so you are way out in right field and the game is long over for you.
this guy can really knock down millions if he gets out of his head everything that is not important and he focuses on getting on with each day by doing a great first entry and then keeping himself on the "right" side of the market.
I can change his charts with VERY LITTLE EFFORT on his and on my part.
He currently is trying too hard and missing the big money making picture by jumping all over the place.
His chart shows a portion of a day that is a "W" day. First, he pulls down the big money and then I will fool around with the intellectually challenging harvests.
There are only 81 bars in a day to handle; somehow he is screwing up big time by not figuring out the last 6 bars by midday.
Lets say he catches on in handling two bars and understands what I said about a single part of the second bar. Only 79 plus bars to go.
You for example immediately stepped outside of my couple of paragraphs and started farting around with off subject topics right away. You cannot learn from others. Why? Shit, who knows.
Look at lefty's annotations. He is very very broadly informed and trained and knowledgeable. My coments to him would be very different. His integrity is showing very nicely. He makes mistake after mistake and we all can determine why and how because of his integrity. AND he would listen to comments and he would profit from them.
One small bridge is what he wants to get. just one. then he will have a universal context for integrating his vaste knowledge and skill base.
because he has a "carry over" technique from day to day, all that has to be done is focus it in the context of the present market operating point which occurred as a consequence of leaving the prior context.
as he gets the continuing bridging straight, then the array of annotations are always in a powerful context.
You do the opposite. apparently your mind got fried looking for anomalies somewhere along the applied math trail when the market operates in a non-continuous go/nogo world (matrix of speciffically bounded cellular nature).
I have had 1005 false starts with the posting m... person....I am still hoping I can get him to shut down his imagination or whatever and begin, carefully, to making a lot of money.
You, on the other hand, are an embarassment to any thinking person in ET.
Wow. Would have been a lot less effort just to answer the simple question. You made a statement which is eminently testable, to wit, that a trendline formed from the first two five minute bars of the morning persists.
We aren't forming the trend that begins the day. we are calibrating our minds for the moment during the period when the market comes into synchronization.
the first daily effort that is performed is to "get with it". what "get with it" means is to get to a place where you are yet once again beginning the day and acknowledging your readiness to share responsibilities with the market.
You, on the other hand are evaluating a missreading on your part of what you thought I said and missed it. You think that I completed the discussion of two bars. In fact, I poke of watching a bar form for five minutes. Then I spoke about a portion of the next bar. Think about it. A bar appears at 9:35:01 or so, then it continues to lengthen; then it may or may not extend beyond one of the ends of the first bar and while doing so there is a rate of change of volume under consideration as the volume of the second bar accumulates.
I am asking a person to look, think, and assess. then i am asking him to evaluate the importance of several points on the price chart, namly ends of bar 1 and one end of bar two. these three points may be used to rough out a channel BEFORE 9:40 arrives.
The time period left after this and up to 9:40 is what I will chat about if and when I get a response from the person I posted to.
Not to scare you too much, but give a read in the chop and trend thread. there you can figure out and reflect upon the fact that what you think is a perfect blah blah is actually not. futher you can see from what I said first that you definitely have a seroius reading difficulty.
Lets say the poster actually is able to read, able to contain his thinking to what I ask him to and, further, he is open to getting rich in a very short period of time.
then, I may be able to relate what he did (the annotating) to the next bar and to the bar after that.
This is four whole bars out of 80, roughly. 5% of the day. If I can get him in the market by then and have him accumulating profits on the first trend of the day and keep him in the trade properly, then he will have banbked up to the H-L value of the day within less than 25% of the day.
This depends upon whetther he can handle a four bar period to begin the day and then keep his mouth shut and monitor for the length of time it takes to let me tell him how to take first profits.
You have proven in two consecutive posts that you cannot and will not. And it is just saturday when most people are willing to listen while the market is closed.
Why do you persistently fuck yourself royally all the time?