"Do trendlines work?" + Confluence of support... SP 4200?

Scataphagos said:
Of course you know "when to buy/sell"... when market has bounced at S/R even just a small bounce.... because that could be it. There No guarantee it will follow through and not reverse on you... so you use a tight stop. There is no "skill" to it... "see it bounce and play it". It's also legit to see the level and place a limit order at the S or R.... not waiting for any bounce. Why is that OK?.. because that's how S/R work. They usually hold. You're always risking "X" for the expectation that you might make 3X or 5X, or more.
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You may have missed the point. Yesterday, price reversed off so called S prior to reaching the actual target. And that's what frequently happens. Price overshoots or undershoots an actual level.

If you were early yesterday, you would have gotten fleeced. If you were late, you missed the ride or the optimum entry point. Of course, yesterday was a non-stop rally with plenty of second chances, but it's not always like that.

So, that's the part that requires skill. If it doesn't require any skill or quick reactions, you should be easily able to demonstrate it with a live post (quicker than your average posts) or a chart showing your entries.

Thank you.

PS: I caught the bounce, but first got stopped out B/E on a short position before reversing long.
 
1."Reversed...before reaching actual target". You may have a target in your mind, but the market doesn't have one.

2. I never said "doesn't require quick reactions".

KISS is about uncomplicating the thinking/process. Simple indications, simple triggers and rules. (No complex patterns... no confirmation conditions... which is a good thing because contrary to conventional wisdom, there is no such thing as "confirmation".) "Is the market buying or selling"? How do you know? Has the market just changed from buying-to-selling or vice versa"? How do you know? "See it, act on it.... with a stop in case it fools you or you screwed up".
 
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Nothing wrong with keeping it simple, the simpler the better, everyone approaches things differently.

Nevertheless, I tend to agree with @ Laissez Faire that price often can overshoot / undershoot the levels.

I think catching bounces on Daily TF (time frame) can be bit of a lottery and bit hard with tight stops on that TF.

I do it occasionally, but for me there needs to be other factors in play as well.

Most of the time I’d also need a pattern on intraday TF (at least something like 3 drives for aggressive entry before I’d step in front of anything, or preferably a reversal pattern on M5 for a more conservative entry before I’d participate.

If the price overshoots and traps traders, then those can be very good trades.

I didn’t participate on the indices yesterday because I didn’t see any buying pressure.

Even though the market is due for a bounce, right now I have no idea where it’s going to go (on EOD TF), it still looks weak and there is lots of damage in the individual stocks.
 
PPC said:
Nothing wrong with keeping it simple, the simpler the better, everyone approaches things differently.

Nevertheless, I tend to agree with @ Laissez Faire that price often can overshoot / undershoot the levels.

I think catching bounces on Daily TF (time frame) can be bit of a lottery and bit hard with tight stops on that TF.

I do it occasionally, but for me there needs to be other factors in play as well.

Most of the time I’d also need a pattern on intraday TF (at least something like 3 drives for aggressive entry before I’d step in front of anything, or preferably a reversal pattern on M5 for a more conservative entry before I’d participate.

If the price overshoots and traps traders, then those can be very good trades.

I didn’t participate on the indices yesterday because I didn’t see any buying pressure.

Even though the market is due for a bounce, right now I have no idea where it’s going to go (on EOD TF), it still looks weak and there is lots of damage in the individual stocks.
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@Xela, only pikers focus on chart periodicity.
 
PPC said:
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I didn’t participate on the indices yesterday because I didn’t see any buying pressure...
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So you are a long only "trader" huh?

Which to me is akin to a "fair weather" sports fan. Team is winning, go team. Team is losing, pffft to them.
 
Scataphagos said:
KISS is about uncomplicating the thinking/process. Simple indications, simple triggers and rules. (No complex patterns... no confirmation conditions... which is a good thing because contrary to conventional wisdom, there is no such thing as "confirmation".) "Is the market buying or selling"? How do you know? Has the market just changed from buying-to-selling or vice versa"? How do you know? "See it, act on it.... with a stop in case it fools you or you screwed up".
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I hadn't before thought about the specific definition of KISS as it applies to Price TA. I like this. :)

Why is "simple" so important? Because everything which is more complicated is more difficult to keep track of and execute. It's essential to focus on "simple reasons" to put your money at risk where you can use a tight stop.
 
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PPC said:
Nothing wrong with keeping it simple, the simpler the better,
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You say this and that's the right idea. Then, you go on and describe the "additional things you need to see" (aka "complications") for you to execute the play.

An old timer once said, "Simplify your method as much as possible. When you've done that, simplify again".
 
The retail trader believes for the most part; the more complicated the better.
They add a plethora of lines and indicators.
They may run multi monitors and computers.
The truth is, finding simplicity is difficult.
For some reason, the brain wants to complicate, and they slide down a slippery slope.
 
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