"Do trendlines work?" + Confluence of support... SP 4200?

Scataphagos

Scataphagos

1 Rising bottoms line @ 4200

2. Backtest of 4200 breakout?

3. 200 Day Moving Average... 4190 today (obscured by blue lines).

Watch for 4200 next week. Technicians should take a shot at this, and probably a big one, if 4200 tests/holds.

FWIW...

KISS, baby!


sat.PNG
 
Scataphagos said:
1 Rising bottoms line @ 4200

2. Backtest of 4200 breakout?

3. 200 Day Moving Average... 4190 today (obscured by blue lines).

Watch for 4200 next week. Technicians should take a shot at this, and probably a big one, if 4200 tests/holds.

FWIW...

KISS, baby!
More...


I don't think technicians would take a big shot within the next week at the 4200 level, because if the market drops there without pulling back, then the move into it would be too impulsive.


upload_2023-9-24_15-58-14.png
 
PPC said:
I don't think technicians would take a big shot within the next week at the 4200 level, because if the market drops there without pulling back, then the move into it would be too impulsive.


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Trading with TA is properly about "recognizing logical risk/reward possibilities and trading them with a tight stop".

My suggestion falls into the notion of "trade with your eyes... trade what you SEE"... and not what you think/hope/feel.

You know, both my recognized possibility and your view could be right (or wrong)... just not at the same time.
 
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September is statistically a weak month in the stock market, so I warned the perma-bulls about this prior to the first trading day in September:

ES Journal - 2023/2024

There's a few juicy gaps below at 4300 / 4200, so if the market loses momentum on this recent leg higher that's where we might be headed.

And if so, it will usually be a rocky road with sweet rips higher on the way. So, no need to get perma anything in the short term.
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Chart posted on the 4th of September:

upload_2023-9-4_21-59-37-png.322426


As of yesterday's Close on the 25th of September, SPX nearly filled the open gap at 4298.86.

A weak September often (but not always) ends the month near the lows, so we might have a chance at the next open gap below at 4221.02 - which co-incides with the 200MA and a channel low.

As for October, I have no idea, but it was a strong month for the last preceding years.
 
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Whether or not SPX will hold the key first level is now somewhat dependent whether or not NASDAQ will hold its own support.


upload_2023-9-26_22-36-39.png
 
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