Seems "EVERYBODY" watching this...
"Do trendlines work?" + Confluence of support... SP 4200?
- Thread starter Scataphagos
- Start date
Even the bots...
Nah, we've hit the bottom today. The low is in for the time being. We should see 4400 on SPX cash before resuming down again.
Update....
There is a 4th support structure at the confluence. A gap, 4241-4221. Market hit 4238 today. That may satisfy the gap and may end up being the bottom of the correction (if that's what it is).
FWIW...
There is a 4th support structure at the confluence. A gap, 4241-4221. Market hit 4238 today. That may satisfy the gap and may end up being the bottom of the correction (if that's what it is).
FWIW...
Admire you sticking your neck. I prefer to talk of what is probable to happen rather than what should happen.
I was anticipating the full gap fill at 4221.02 today which I mentioned at post # 7, but it seems like the whole world was ready to buy that trend line touch and front run that gap fill and the 200 MA.
Or maybe the buy orders came to be for some other reason. We'll never know.
Alternative scenario for the day: That initial spike off the lows today could easily have been a retrace before the market plunged into the Close to completely fill the gap. And we could have ridiculed the people who were buying: "Wait for the gap to fill before going long! Don't go long on a trend day down!"
Point is, you need to know when to buy and not. You can't be too early and you can't be too late. That's the part that requires skill and which isn't KISS.
So, where are we now?
We may have put in a short term bottom or it was just a premature spike. That's anyone's guess at this point.
As much as I agree with you, just for fun, I will take the other side of this argument.
We don't need to know when to buy because we really have no idea if the buying will continue or fizzle out after a 3-5pt rise. So I think all we can do if have a level in mind, call it a range low (even though for today at least, nobody can claim to have known it was 4277 as the long term trend line or a daily SMA or the 50% fib that Speedo pointed out isn't going to have been nearly as precise).
But suppose we had a reason to try a long, so then we just enter, and let whatever will happen, happen. And this to me sounds good, and a good enough reason to just use the KISS approach. You have a decent enough reason to buy, and you see it bounce, so you buy.
But here is the kicker. A simple KISS approach will lead to many stopouts. So then you need to figure out what to do next. If you aren't going to be so picky on the entry, and try every one, you need to be very well prepared for what to do after each stop out. (ie. do you re-enter, do you take the opposite side, etc.)
Today, the ES seems to have broken every swing low in a typical trend fashion. But at the moment that price hit the same level, it sure could have been a double bottom, and hence setting up range action, and hence a reason to buy. All would have failed. If you have a filter for how to enter a long, maybe those don't trigger, but then this means that you are never really buying a double bottom, but maybe a retracement after a double bottom, and these get way more complex given that tight stops cannot be used.
So I agree that KISS sounds like is should be simple, but if you are going to take 100 trades and expect to make a profit in the end, your timing has to be solid, your trade management has to be top notch, and you need nerves of steel because you will easily have 4, 5, 6 losses in a row.
Of course you know "when to buy/sell"... when market has bounced at S/R even just a small bounce.... because that could be it. There No guarantee it will follow through and not reverse on you... so you use a tight stop. There is no "skill" to it... "see it bounce and play it". It's also legit to see the level and place a limit order at the S or R.... not waiting for any bounce. Why is that OK?.. because that's how S/R work. They usually hold. You're always risking "X" for the expectation that you might make 3X or 5X, or more.
BTW... I can't remember the last time I had "4, 5,or 6 losses in a row".
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