Do most traders even have an edge?

You have an edge when there is a statistical confidence that you will beat the market.

Edge = A + B + C + ....

A, B or C is not an edge. A+B+C is not an edge. The proper combination of all the ingredients create an edge for yourself.

When a trader finds out that he can consistently beat the market, he will think he has found the edge. He will mention his edge as A, B or C. He has an edge, but he doesn't know all the ingredients. That is the reason why trading is hard to teach.

"A" might be part of your edge, but "NOT A" might be part of my edge. There is no "THE" edge. Edge is not unique. There are many ways of creating an edge.

Example:

Average down is usually described as bad, but some traders find average down works for them.
constant position sizing works for some, but pyramiding (or average up) works for others.
TA works for some, but random entry/exit works for others.
 
Quote from Shagi:

There is no such mystical thing some call an edge. This is a business of mathematical probabilities and human psychology

Quote from kiwi_trader:

That assumes that all edges significantly increase the efficiency of the markets. Fortunately they don't. :)
***
The answer (if there is one such thing) lies in these two responses.

A lot of the results of good trading are the result of the probabilities and discipline, however they usually (but not always) require a trader to implement their edge.

But just because you have an edge and implement it successfully, it does not guarantee the ultimte success of every trade which utilizes it.

Good trading,

JJ
 
edge is something aspiring traders long for!

they think you need an edge over someone or something in order to make money.

they think they are part of a large crowd and they need to be head and shoulders above the crowd and make money.

they also think this edge is something that comes from the outside in the form of a technique or information.

they think they have to be superhuman and come up with some dumb ass sh!t in order to achieve an edge.

to all i say:

chill the fcuk out!

the easiest thigs work the best.

4.5 min bars... sheesh... come on!

pick up an excel spreadsheet and input the daily values and see what you come up with. Unsubscribe from all your charting packages and learn to trade by looking at price alone because that is almost all you need.

i think the biggest problem nowadays is that everybody wants to sell you their sh!t. But guess what ... You don't need all that!

When you want a REAL edge, take this advice: BREAK AWAY FROM EVERYTHING!
 
Just reading this thread you can name those who have one... You really feel it... Making no losing week with a decent number of trades seems a good way to know ( at least to me )...
 
yours is the only correct definition.

having an edge it's to have a known advantage over your competitors; can be just a little something yet what's enough to be amongst predators, confident in the long run to dominate. you have an edge when you posses or have developed a skill or a skill set that is allowing you to beat the competition.
Quote from yip1997:

You have an edge when there is a statistical confidence that you will beat the market.

Edge = A + B + C + ....

A, B or C is not an edge. A+B+C is not an edge. The proper combination of all the ingredients create an edge for yourself.

When a trader finds out that he can consistently beat the market, he will think he has found the edge. He will mention his edge as A, B or C. He has an edge, but he doesn't know all the ingredients. That is the reason why trading is hard to teach.

"A" might be part of your edge, but "NOT A" might be part of my edge. There is no "THE" edge. Edge is not unique. There are many ways of creating an edge.

Example:

Average down is usually described as bad, but some traders find average down works for them.
constant position sizing works for some, but pyramiding (or average up) works for others.
TA works for some, but random entry/exit works for others.
 
Quote from Bitstream:

yours is the only correct definition.

having an edge it's to have a known advantage over your competitors; can be just a little something yet what's enough to be amongst predators, confident in the long run to dominate. you have an edge when you posses or have developed a skill or a skill set that is allowing you to beat the competition.
That's pretty hardcore man ... I love it!

JJ
 
I hate to be the one to burst this lovely bubble, but "have an edge" is dreamland fantasy talk.

Either your monthly brokerage statement is positive and growing or it is not.

This game is only about money; the rest is just words.

regards
f9
 
Quote from empee:

I have done many tests on the S&P going back to 1996 with random entry and exit (long only). Here were the rules:

A) On a given day, randomize a number 1 through 10, if its 5 buy. If not a buy, go to next day. We invest 100% of equity in each trade.

B) If in a position (from A), randomize a number 1 through 10. If its a 5 sell. (Only do this if we're in already in a position from A).

I ran 1000 versions of this test. About 1/2 of 1% (.5%) resulted in a negative outcome (I ran several times and got similar results). (No commission or slippage included). This on on the DAILY S&P.

I used no STOPS (since we are randomly entering and exiting we should get some fraction of the return of the overall index).

How does this simple system beat (meaning MAKES money 99.5% of the samples) versus most people who ACTIVELY , EFFORTFULLY, and PURPOSELY are trying to make money? (Since most ppl lose). Could it be that ACTIVELY trying to beat the market actually has a NEGATIVE EXPECTANCY? (Or vary position size at the wrong time makes positive expectancy negative?)

You could argue that I am curve-fitting since I knew the market went up since 1996, and you'd be right; but one of the truism (though I don't agree with) is that long-term the market always goes up.


If a system had a long-term flat expectancy, but went thru periods of winning and losing, how long would a trader trade this "edge"?

(One of the things I find so entertaining is when traders are so certain that THEIR edge is truly an EDGE, in reality no one knows FOR SURE what the FUTURE results will be).


Such a simple system outperforming most partipcants, unbelievable. Fascinating stuff!

Over the years, the market has a negative net during regular trading hours; conversely, the net is positive when RTH's are excluded.

You are trading, long only, by doing turns that are infrequent and which last days on end.

Largely, you are making money when the markets are closed and, further, you compare your approach to traders that only trade during RTH. These traders may have the same non neutral bias that you do.

Step your thinking up a few notches by using even and odd numbers to achieve something or other. Leave the five's theory to blackjack.
 
Quote from fearless9:

I hate to be the one to burst this lovely bubble, but "have an edge" is dreamland fantasy talk.

Either your monthly brokerage statement is positive and growing or it is not.

This game is only about money; the rest is just words.

regards
f9
Actually the game is only about good trading. The money comes as a result of it.

Good trading,

JJ
 
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