Disillusioned

Quote from BertH:

thanks, Cheese. I appreciate the words of wisdom. Maybe my post was an attempt to avoid giving up altogether, listening to others' advice. I figure at least some of you have experienced something similar.

It may well be that my expectations are a "disillusionment" as well. I feel I should find something that I'd hit correctly about 75% of the time, something(s) tradable with enough frequency to do well with. That may be simply unrealistic.
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You STILL don't really understand what has happened to you.

I'm sure you lost money...
In spite of your denial... let's say $5,000...
Which is precisely what was supposed to happen.

The Sell Side of the securities industry...
Is a brilliantly conceived and executed "mook skinner"...
Designed to transfer money from the pockets of greedy, but semi-sophisticated, marks...
To the securities industry...
Which is then split up by your broker and exchanges...
The guys who wrote the books you bought...
The guys who sold you the software...
The guys who put up your favorite trading web sites.

All these Sell Side operators split your money...
And there's millions more like you.

And here you are babbling on about "candlesticks" and "reversals".

90% of what you know is lies spoon fed to you by the Sell Side...
And unless you come to terms with this... you are doomed as a trader.

People who are sugar-coating your experience... are not helping you.
 
Old Trader had great advice earlier with "The idea is to take a position at a time when you can risk a little for alot."

I've had successful strategies that have an 85% win rate, and others with around 35% win rate. That part really doesn't matter compared to how much you are risking upon entry.

Cheese also said "It is darkest before the dawn." This isn't just a line...over the years I nearly quit the business three times, and at every breaking point was the low. Strange how it works like that.

Good Luck
 
You did not mention anything about how you are exiting your trades. Entries are not as important as the exits. You can make money by randomly picking stocks, as long as you have a sound exit strategy.

Someone mentioned Van Tharp's book. I would second that recommendation. It's very good.

Re-examine your past trades, and see if you could have made money by changing your exit strategy. If all of your stocks immediately went down as soon as you bought them, maybe change your system to a short system? :D
 
Quote from BertH:

psychoanalitics, I understand what you're saying about it taking doctors and such a very long time. Even so, I would have expected, thru all this time, I wouldn't have traveled what seems like a mere elongated circle. That, perhaps more than anything--the basic lack of progress--is what's so discouraging for me.


But I must ask--is roughly five-plus years really the norm for solid success on a consistent basis? I don't want to underestimate anyone's path of effort, and agree it can't be done overnight. Just seems that may be a bit long in some cases.

I prefer trading on either an hourly candle or daily candle basis, looking for brief consolidations amidst up or down trends, or points of likely reversal. On the latter, I'm sure the intensity of the downward path the main indices has taken causes such a strategy to be much less profitable. Even so, in looking it all over, seems so futile.
I thought I'd never say that.
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Bert;
Another traderc said ''I dont understand why no one will give me a stright answer, some say 6 month to profit, others say 10 years.''

Frankly told him you got a straight answer, its just wasnt the one you wanted :cool:
As far as superior trading, take Jack Schwager top traders;
one learned in 6 months
another 10 years
=====================
bottom line average =5.3 years, so you arent even up to average time.

That is for superior trding.

Thanks for yours post , actualy therein contains another problem -opportunity;
this downtrend [50 dma...] has been downtrending long enough
hourly bars could be fine[dont let all of them close]

Only should causes a strategy ''to be much less profitable'', if LONG only.
hope this helped;
made a long story short so to speak.:cool:
 
Reexamine your old trades. Look at the ones you lost money on. How close were your stops? How much money would you have right now if you had kept tighter stops? Also, how much of the winning trades would you have been stopped out of with these tighter stops? Were your actual stops arbitrary or based on price history?

Look at the entries. Did you have a really good signal or were you just guessing? Did you find yourself making good calls but entering too early and getting whipsawed? Is there a pattern to your early entries?

There are more questions of this sort you can ask about your trades. You need to do these sorts of analyses of your trades in order to see what went wrong.
 
i would like to commend everyone who has participated in this link thus far. usually when someone posts a link to the effect of this one - it turns into something very negative by posts from people trying to put someone down for expressing self doubt. when, in reality, any trader worth his/her salt goes through periods like this. my guess is when people mock others having a hard time it is becasue of their own insecurity and self-doubt.

this is a tough business. there is no pay-cheque or benefits. you are your own worst enemy and trading is a constant emotional battle with yourself. if you have responsibilities: wife, kids, mortgage, dependant parents etc - all of these pressures become magnified.

the other hard part i think is you really can quit so easily. you just turn off the computer. so the temptation is always there for me when things arent going well.

i think in order to become truly great you have to hit the wall a few times (whether mentally or financially). i think , unfortunately, this is true of any business. i know very few people with assets over a few million that havent at several points almost quit or gone bankrupt. the true recipe for success, in my experience, is being able to hang on and focus. especially with something entrepreneurial. otherwise - say you go start a new business - in 3 or 5 years you will be at the same point: frustrated, likely undercapitalized and scared. then you have to make the same decision (quit vs focus and keep grinding and so it goes.

i do believe though that you have to be passionate about what it is you are pursuing . otherwise, you just wont be able to hold on when you have to. also, you only get to go around once so why not be doing something you truly enjoy.

the difference between trading and a conventional business thoughis a trade off. with a conventional business, presumably, you are building equity or capital or assets or goodwill. something tangible that could be sold at a multiple when you are ready to move on vs trading where the capital you build is intangible. i believe it's capital - but its mental and it aint worth squat. the trade off is you dont have to deal with the rigors and aggravation of employees, receivables, suppliers, customers etc...

imho, best thing you can do is take some time and some solitude and reflect on what you want. make a plan and give it!!

just my two cents - wishing you the best

nne
 
Quote from BertH:


But I must ask--is roughly five-plus years really the norm for solid success on a consistent basis? I don't want to underestimate anyone's path of effort, and agree it can't be done overnight. Just seems that may be a bit long in some cases.
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Depends on what you mean by "success" and the time period during which you're trading. If you started in early '03, you would have thought that this was about as easy a way to make money as one could wish for.

But we've gone more or less sideways for more than two years in both the Naz and the Dow. This has required a certain amount of adaptation. Those who have adapted to the contractions in daily ranges and the "creep" in trends have done fine. Those who have not have been whipped around until they don't know which way is up.

Therefore, if you're going to be successful over the long term, you're going to have to develop strategies which can be employed in a variety of market conditions. Otherwise, you will at best break even. The quicker you do this, the quicker you learn. The longer you put it off, the longer it will take.

So, five years? six months? Depends on what it is you're trying to do and how much effort you're willing to expend to do it.
 
Some fantastic replies, and most importantly, sincere. 'Preciate 'em.

Hound Dog, yours was the only post some might consider negative, but I also am fine with your blunt approach. Sometimes that's the best. I'm sure you're correct in the way things are set up. I will reiterate that my account is in the plus from where I started--just not nearly enough to where I have any confidence to undertake this heavier, and that's a major disappointment in light of expectations.

I didn't expect overnight success, but certainly did expect it to come more quickly than it has. Hence the disillusionment, because I feel I've gone in circles and am somewhat back to square one. The lack of progress vs expectations has made me contemplate whether there really is a profitable approach over the long haul.
Yet, there are a lot of folks on this board who seem to have indeed found an approach that's made them good money, in a manner that gives them the confidence to trade time and again when the setup is right.
 
one of the best quotes I can offer to you is, "Before clarity there is confusion."

This was certainly the case for me. If my wife had a dollar for everytime I told her I was quitting, she'd have been a millionaire by now.

For me, the turning point was when I decided to keep everything as simple as possible.

Price reveals all.:) :) :) :) :)
 
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